Civil War in Libya

[Prince Cobra]

I can. We still do not have an accurate picture of how widespread the military defections have been. (Apparently they have not been complete as he still retains control of Tripoli.)

He has demonstrated that he is perfectly comfortable using the military against the people, and at least a portion of the military has complied with his orders. If he still enjoys the loyalty of a majority of the Libyan armed forces, or can supplement the losses to defection with mercenaries, then there is little protests can do against them.

At this point, he is probably weighing the costs (in defections) with the benefits (in deaths and destruction) of a more severe military crackdown, and assessing the loyalty of various military units. He is walking on a proverbial tight rope, but he still has options.

I don't think conventional military force (even a mercenary) can stand against a revolution. I doubt he has any authority amongst the tribal chiefs because of using foreign mercenaries and money to bribe support + his obvious weakness. The people obviously hate him and bombing them with airplanes did not change that. In the East the army already defected. It might be poorly armed but it is no way harmless. Within a week or two the only force Gadafi could rely on are the Chadian troops and the mercenaries. He is doomed IMHO. Unless he flees, he won't survive this revolution.

He ran out of options the moment he ordered his own army to bomb the Lybians and his own capital. Like any dictator after a long rule he lost any connection with the real life. What he did was simply a sign that he refused to accept his regime is doomed.