Civil War in Libya

[tibilicus]

I'm rooting for no one. It is not my fight.

The extent of the folly in which many in the West engaged in is worth pointing out. You can see it in this thread. People with no understanding of the situation on the ground declared the regime all but dead and scoffed at suggestions otherwise, when it should have been clear that what the rebels had could not be accurately described as a military force. Heady talk of a grand march on Tripoli and Hitler in his bunker seem but a distant memory at this point.

Ah, I get you. No worries, I was just curious.

[PanzerJaeger]

That Guardian article is out of touch with what has been going on lately. The rebels have, by force, taken towns that has been defended by loyalist troops - no stalemate on the eastern front just yet, that is certain. Also, if the rebels manage to take Cirte, then the road is almost "open" to Tripoli.

Much closer to Tripoli than Benghazi - in fact, just outside Tripoli - lies the the rebel held city of Misurata. Misurata is about the same size as Benghazi (and the third biggest city in the country it seems), and is the next major city on the road from Cirte. That rebels in Benghazi will not march on Tripoli may well be so, but there are rebels much closer that can do just that instead.

We'll see. I've read reports claiming Westerners are on the ground buying off Gaddafi loyalists, which could change everything.

As of today though, your march on Sirte has been halted cold.

Ground forces loyal to Libyan leader Moammar Kadafi, backed up by warplanes, pushed rebels away from the coastal town of Bin Jawwad on Sunday to stop their advance on Kadafi's hometown of Sirte.

One fighter, returning wounded from Bin Jawwad to rebel-held Ras Lanuf further east, said Kadafi loyalists had ambushed advancing rebels with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades.

Asked what he had seen, he replied: "Death." Distraught and bandaged, he would not say more.

As for Misurata, it doesn't appear to be the staging ground for a grand offensive either. In fact, it seems the situation is reversed.

[ICantSpellDawg]

We'll see. I've read reports claiming Westerners are on the ground buying off Gaddafi loyalists, which could change everything.

As of today though, your march on Sirte has been halted cold.


As for Misurata, it doesn't appear to be the staging ground for a grand offensive either. In fact, it seems the situation is reversed.

Congratulations to you.


I'm not picking this up. I'm picking up a general failure by Gaddafi to re-take lost cities. The opposition's offensive seems to have stalled, but Gaddafi is not gaining ground anywhere but in the imagination of the people of Tripoli.

[Prince Cobra]

PJ, the Gaddafi regime is as good as dead. That's very obvious. His only loyalist force is consisted of mercenaries, which leads me to the point...

We'll see. I've read reports claiming Westerners are on the ground buying off Gaddafi loyalists, which could change everything.

If this succeeds, this would be a really elegant way out of the crisis and I hope it will succeed.

[Populus Romanus]

I say we get the CIA into Libya to smuggle arms to the Rebels. Antitank weapons, antiaircraft weapons, and assault rifles could transform them from an angry mob to an effective killing machine.

[ICantSpellDawg]

That's what I'm talkin' bout.

[HoreTore]

I say we get the CIA into Libya to smuggle arms to the Rebels. Antitank weapons, antiaircraft weapons, and assault rifles could transform them from an angry mob to an effective killing machine.

They already have more than they need of that.

[Greyblades]

Seems the world isn't just watching.

[Noncommunist]

I say we get the CIA into Libya to smuggle arms to the Rebels. Antitank weapons, antiaircraft weapons, and assault rifles could transform them from an angry mob to an effective killing machine.

And some training would be helpful.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7251E720110306

From the look of the article, it seems they definitely have morale but their lack of training and tactics seems like it could seriously undermine them.

[Husar]

Yeah, the british are about to ruin this for all of us again and make sure that the Libyans will hate the west even more once this is over...

[Greyblades]

Eh? Unless gaddafi wins wouldn't they consider an attempt to contact the resistance leaders a good thing?

[PanzerJaeger]

I say we get the CIA into Libya to smuggle arms to the Rebels. Antitank weapons, antiaircraft weapons, and assault rifles could transform them from an angry mob to an effective killing machine.

Indeed, let's dump a bunch of weapons in to Africa and try to play God in a small third world conflict. And when those weapons end up killing babies in the Congo in 10 years, I'm sure we'll all be suitably outraged. Have we learned nothing? At least when we did this in the Cold War it was based on broader strategic concerns and not pure emotion.

Thankfully, the Obama administration seems to at least understand the concept of plausible deniability. However, the blood and violence wrought with these weapons will always be, in part, on our hands. The service life on a decent AK build can be in excess of 50,000 rounds and/or 40 years. That's a huge liability just to sway the outcome of some marginal North African conflict.

Also, SOCOM is going to have a field day with this. SAS boys getting captured by the very people they were trying to help!

[Viking]

Rebel fighters seem unable to advance past Bin Jawad at present. Though, given the volatile situation as well as little information, no one seems able to predict what's next. The pendulum could swing either way, I suppose.

[Fragony]

Ah that is how I know our much beloved royal family, what do you do when people are rising up against oppresion? You hail in contracts for the sales of high-tech weaponry to the oppressors of course, what else. Of course it's just a private dinner. Her SS-serving daddy would be proud of her.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Also, SOCOM is going to have a field day with this. SAS boys getting captured by the very people they were trying to help!

That could have been staged. It leaves the opposition untainted by foreign aid, even though they met with the diplomats.

I honestly don't care about the national sovereignty of dictatorships. I believe that it is our duty to help free everyone, everywhere. We've got soldiers, they signed up to fight - let them fight. I support perpetual coalition wars around the globe until people have control of their own destinies. I wish more nations would link up to help fight these wars.

[Strike For The South]

Indeed, let's dump a bunch of weapons in to Africa and try to play God in a small third world conflict. And when those weapons end up killing babies in the Congo in 10 years, I'm sure we'll all be suitably outraged. Have we learned nothing? At least when we did this in the Cold War it was based on broader strategic concerns and not pure emotion.

:

+1 +freaking1

[Tellos Athenaios]

Indeed, let's dump a bunch of weapons in to Africa and try to play God in a small third world conflict. And when those weapons end up killing babies in the Congo in 10 years, I'm sure we'll all be suitably outraged. Have we learned nothing? At least when we did this in the Cold War it was based on broader strategic concerns and not pure emotion.

Thankfully, the Obama administration seems to at least understand the concept of plausible deniability.

Which means that the only real responsible way to aid the rebels (if we choose that) is boots on the grounds. Plausible denial is simply incompatible with responsibility (indeed the whole thing is designed to skirt responsibility).

[drone]

I say we give the opposition Stingers.

[Viking]

EDIT: @Tellos
No, it isn't. The support given the most consideration at present is airstrikes and airborne support in general.

[Tellos Athenaios]

True. What matters is that if we do support the rebels, the only real way to do so that is responsible is a form of direct intervention. (Though I imagine that this will require at least some number of boots on the grounds to finish it.)

[ICantSpellDawg]

Obama asks Saudi Arabia to airlift guns to rebels

I'm concerned that Secretary Gates is not interested in setting up a no fly zone at this point. I wonder what his pre-requisites would be to warrant that action.

[Tellos Athenaios]

A case of Lemur's disease: that is the exact same article PJ posted a few posts above...

[Fragony]

How about doing nothing. I agree with Panzer. I think. Our chivalrous rescue attempt of rescuing... who?? Why were our soldiers captured an the evacuees released. Why didn't they bring any marines the Tromp has them on board at all time. I have no idea what's going on anymore. SAS gets caught by rebels Dutch get caught by loyalists. wth

[ICantSpellDawg]

How about doing nothing. I agree with Panzer. I think. Our chivalrous rescue attempt of rescuing... who?? Why were our soldiers captured an the evacuees released. Why didn't they bring any marines the Tromp has them on board at all time. I have no idea what's going on anymore. SAS gets caught by rebels Dutch get caught by loyalists. wth

I'm saying naval support, air support with a no-fly zone and arms shipments to the opposition. If we need special forces to take out air defenses, then so be it - get in, get out.

This is what the U.S. military is best at. Gaddafi turning back the tide is not an option, so plan accordingly.

[ICantSpellDawg]

A case of Lemur's disease: that is the exact same article PJ posted a few posts above...

crap

[Fragony]

I'm not saying boots on the ground. I'm saying naval support, air support with a no-fly zone and arms shipments to the opposition. If we need special forces to take out air defenses, then so be it - get in, get out.

This is what the U.S. military is best at. Gaddafi turning back the tide is not an option, so plan accordingly.

Let them have this wether they succeed or not, at least it will be theirs, would you be very comfortable with finding your destiny if you know it really never really was your own doing, but an artificial construct

[Prince Cobra]

I honestly don't care about the national sovereignty of dictatorships. I believe that it is our duty to help free everyone, everywhere. We've got soldiers, they signed up to fight - let them fight. I support perpetual coalition wars around the globe until people have control of their own destinies. I wish more nations would link up to help fight these wars.

This is a very delicate issue. If you launch such a campaign, you will give much evidence to those who claim the West is Imperialistic threat and should not be trusted. You can also undermine the influence of those politicians who want good relations with the West. It is also not very certain what will happen in Libya and whether the West will look as the occupator... In addition, I am not very sure whether the oppostion in Lybia really wants a foreign military help and how people will react to that (despite the information (?) that the government in Benghazi asked for help... ) For now, the best strategy would be to locate forces around but not to interfere in the conflict... Sit and wait and provide humanitarian aid... And do everything you can with non-military means... (bribing the mercenaries is OK)

And yes, I believe the Lybians will manage to crush the Gadafi regime alone. Really. The loss of Bin Jawad was probably a tactical retreat, the real battle is now for Ras Lanuf and I believe that the mercenaries will be repelled. After all, all of the East became rebel and that includes all the tanks and munitions under the local army. Yes, the Gaddafi army is better armed but the rebels still have sharp teeth + numbers and high morale. And support of the international community.

Does anybody knows something about the Gaddafi airforce? As far as I know, the rebels have a good anti airforce weapons so the threat from the sky might be a bit exaggerated.

[Viking]

Let them have this wether they succeed or not, at least it will be theirs, would you be very comfortable with finding your destiny if you know it really never really was your own doing, but an artificial construct

I am sure the Dutch are still uncomfortable with that fact that they did not bring the nazis out of the country on their own.

That said, the rebels do actuall ask the West in particular to help them removing the threat from the air.

[gaelic cowboy]

Why the hell dont the Italians do summit about it instead of engaging in bunga bunga parties, sure it's there post colonial mess is it not.

They dont even need a carrier they can just hop across in jet and bomb the out of Gadaffi and back for the bunga party later on.

[PanzerJaeger]

Does anybody knows something about the Gaddafi airforce? As far as I know, the rebels have a good anti airforce weapons so the threat from the sky might be a bit exaggerated.

On paper, they have 37 Hind attack helicopters, 39 SU-22s, 32 Mirages, 25 Mig 21s, 134 Mig 23s, and between 100 and 200 more support/training/transport aircraft - all of Cold War vintage. It is amazing that they've managed to get any of their fighters operational at all considering their age and the years of neglect they suffered through the 90s and 00s after the Soviet stream ran dry. I would think less than a third of those fighters are operational, but I have nothing solid to base that on. A number of planes were lost to the rebels as well.

Unless anti-aircraft units defected along with the captured AA equipment, the rebels would need Stinger-type missiles to be at all effective. Knocking jets out of the sky is difficult enough for a trained AA crew operating the kind of conventional AA guns that we've seen them riding around with on the backs of trucks, and it would be nearly impossible to jump on one with no experience and shoot down an aircraft. Luckily for the rebels, it is even more difficult to accurately bomb and strafe targets without decent training - training that Libya's pilots probably did not get much of.