Civil War in Libya

[Husar]

I still only count 26 AQ members. Where are the rest?

Whenever I see a reporter from Al Jazeera on the frontlines, there are about 26 people with guns around, maybe that's the whole rebel army?

[gaelic cowboy]

Whenever I see a reporter from Al Jazeera on the frontlines, there are about 26 people with guns around, maybe that's the whole rebel army?

Maybe it's like that movie "Wag the Dog" where they use blue screen technology to invent a war in Albania to deflect attention at home.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Small bit of cursing

[drone]

It's good to see that the US has brought in AC-130s to enforce this "no-fly zone".

[al Roumi]

It's good to see that the US has brought in AC-130s to enforce this "no-fly zone".

No man, those are to protect civilians! ...a la Schwarzeneger, quite literaly with a a minigun (or 2 - and an autocannon).

Edit: and it increasingly looks like NATO are using the reverse edge of the informal combatant coin, i.e. such that they can consider the rebel "army" civilians. They certainly don't seem to fight any better so...

[Viking]

It's good to see that the US has brought in AC-130s to enforce this "no-fly zone".

I see a lot of confusion regarding the no-fly zone. The NFZ was talked alot about prior to the UNSC resolution - the resolution only mentions the NFZ as a part of the wider operations.

I don't think the stuff that we are doing over Libya has any name; but it could perhaps be callled something like an "air supremacy zone", meaning that we take over an airspace and will attack anyone not obeying...something.

No man, those are to protect civilians! ...a la Schwarzeneger, quite literaly with a a minigun (or 2 - and an autocannon).

Edit: and it increasingly looks like NATO are using the reverse edge of the informal combatant coin, i.e. such that they can consider the rebel "army" civilians. They certainly don't seem to fight any better so...

If that had been the case, the rebels would have pushed forward all the way to gates of Sirte - instead of retreating from Bin Jawad, as they are now. One could argue that, because the loyalist forces keep attacking civilians, every single unit of the loyalist army is to be considered a legit target. It be forces in advance, forces in retreat; armoured units aiming at cities or away from them. Individual soldiers and armour alike - target them all. Someone has to die as things are now - and it should not be civilians nor rebel fighters.

Things are not going too well in Misrata these days, so I wonder whether there's where the AC-130s enter the equation? If the city fall, it means that the only major city left in rebel hands in the west of the country will fall - a serious blow to the rebels and a great relief for Gaddafi.

[Ronin]

It's good to see that the US has brought in AC-130s to enforce this "no-fly zone".

and A10's.

all in all a very bad day to be sitting in a tank somewhere in government controlled Libya.

[Noncommunist]

While I share most of PJ's reservations about our third simultaneous undeclared, unfunded war against an arab nation

Iraq is winding down and we only have a few combat trainers left there anyways. Also, Afghanistan isn't an Arab nation.

[Lemur]

Also, Afghanistan isn't an Arab nation.

Fair point, my bad. Should have said "Islamic nation" instead.

[Subotan]

One wonders why the British and American governments do not present the campaign as revenge for Lockerbie. You would think there would be a rich vein of propaganda to mine from that particular tragedy.

[rory_20_uk]

I imagine because it'd then get into why Lockerbie was done - as it was revenge against an act that the USA / UK did. The USA especially exists in an absolutes where they are the Good Guys, not the Somewhat Better Guys... sort of.

[Subotan]

I don't the American media would go back too far in history. All they would need is revenge for terrorism; terrorism=bad; therefore, intervention is good.

[Viking]

A couple of funny/interesting quotes from Ben Wedeman:

At western gate of Ajdabiya this afternoon was told every Libyan town will offer a wife to Nicolas Sarkozy in thanks. #Libya

In Ajdabiya the anti-Qaddafi fighters refer to the NATO aircraft as "our planes." #Libya

Comparisons to previous wars and interventions fall short, this is quite the special case (they all are, aren't they?).

[PanzerJaeger]

While I share most of PJ's reservations about our third simultaneous undeclared, unfunded war against an arab nation, I think the AQ connection sounds overblown and sensationalized. There are plenty of reasons to be wary of our new BFFs in Benghazi without invoking the universal boogeyman.

I was of the same belief until even the administration and military acknowledged it, seemingly the last group of people who would want the public to know about any al-Qaeda presence in the region.

This goes deeper than many may realize. Apparently, Libya's al-Qaeda allied faction, Libya Islamic Fighting Group, was fighting a losing battle against Gadaffi's regime in the mid to late '90s. As that insurgency crumbled, some fled to Algeria and others went to fight in Iraq and Afghanistan against the United States. (The largest percentage of foreign fighters in Iraq per capita were Libyan.) Now they're back, looking to finish what they started - all under the cover of US airstrikes.

The question is - after Gadaffi is gone, how will the democrats and the Islamists reconcile their conflicting visions for the future of Libya... the same way they did in Iraq? What is the West's responsibility to a post-Gadaffi Libya? After having removed the current government, are we then going to be comfortable watching it descend into violent chaos and/or Islamic fundamentalist control? Maybe al-Qaeda has decided to enter the democratic process in Libya () or maybe their numbers are small enough where they can be easily policed (we have seen the carnage a relatively small number of AQ can cause in other wars), but I think there are valid concerns regarding the nature and future of the revolution.

[Hax]

Kind of reminds me of the fear for the Algerian Islamists back in '92. Y'know, those Islamists that had no ties at all with the Algerian government.

[Sarmatian]

This indeed looks less and less like a rebellion against a dictator and more and more as a very complicated internal power struggle. Rebels enjoy the support of the east of the country (oil richest part) while the rest more or less supports Gaddafi. Most of the leaders of the rebels are actually from eastern parts of Libya, a part of the country which used to have most of power and control in pre-Gaddafi era.

Even if they win, who guarantees that the rest of Libya will accept them? Keep in mind that although Libya isn't a tribal society in the full meaning of the word, tribal ties are still strong. I'm not convinced that even if Gaddafi is ousted, the country won't descend into chaos with conflicting interests from radical muslims, different tribes and western nations...

[Husar]

This indeed looks less and less like a rebellion against a dictator and more and more as a very complicated internal power struggle. Rebels enjoy the support of the east of the country (oil richest part) while the rest more or less supports Gaddafi.

Actually there were huge unrests in western cities as well, but then Gaddafi armed the few loyalists he has and made them patrol the streets and shoot people to keep those down, to me it looks like he just couldn't find any/enough loyalists in the east to do a similar thing there.
Add to that the fact that only his most loyal battalions/divisions were properly armed and it looks like he knew that a sizeable portion of the citizenry AND the army as well were not very fond of him and prepared accordingly.
That's not to say that I think we're heading in a good direction there, it just doesn't seem like he is as beloved in Tripoli as one would think, he just found enough thugs to make it look like that and hold the people hostage.

[Sarmatian]

Actually there were huge unrests in western cities as well, but then Gaddafi armed the few loyalists he has and made them patrol the streets and shoot people to keep those down, to me it looks like he just couldn't find any/enough loyalists in the east to do a similar thing there.
Add to that the fact that only his most loyal battalions/divisions were properly armed and it looks like he knew that a sizeable portion of the citizenry AND the army as well were not very fond of him and prepared accordingly.
That's not to say that I think we're heading in a good direction there, it just doesn't seem like he is as beloved in Tripoli as one would think, he just found enough thugs to make it look like that and hold the people hostage.

Protests and demonstrations are very different from armed uprisings. People may be annoyed over something, price of gas, smaller pensions, no health insurance, no job opportunities. There were massive protests in London just now and in France earlier. When they take up weapons it becomes a totally different game.

[al Roumi]

Protests and demonstrations are very different from armed uprisings. People may be annoyed over something, price of gas, smaller pensions, no health insurance, no job opportunities. There were massive protests in London just now and in France earlier. When they take up weapons it becomes a totally different game.

Yes, self arming populations are a different scenario to protests. But there were significant anti-Gaddafi protests in Western Libya 6 weeks ago -have you only now turned on the news or something?

The difference between what happened to the protests in the West and East is that Gaddafi was better able to suppress those in the west whereas pretty much the whole administration (including army units) of the east actually defected. Misrata (just to the East of Tripoli) is still held by the rebels, albeit under sustained attack from Gaddafi's forces. A couple of other western towns that rose up early on were suppressed with liberal use of tanks, artillery and (reportedly) airstrikes.

[al Roumi]

The question is - after Gadaffi is gone, how will the democrats and the Islamists reconcile their conflicting visions for the future of Libya... the same way they did in Iraq? What is the West's responsibility to a post-Gadaffi Libya? After having removed the current government, are we then going to be comfortable watching it descend into violent chaos and/or Islamic fundamentalist control? Maybe al-Qaeda has decided to enter the democratic process in Libya () or maybe their numbers are small enough where they can be easily policed (we have seen the carnage a relatively small number of AQ can cause in other wars), but I think there are valid concerns regarding the nature and future of the revolution.

Very valid points!

[HopAlongBunny]

If Gadaffi is removed things will get very interesting.

AQ will of course be present, different tribal factions, whatever clique the CIA manages to cobble together and god only knows what other claimants. Of course, who will wield the "monopoly of force" when the Gad is gone?

[Greyblades]

If Gadaffi is removed things will get very interesting.

AQ will of course be present, different tribal factions, whatever clique the CIA manages to cobble together and god only knows what other claimants. Of course, who will wield the "monopoly of force" when the Gad is gone?

Hmph, I dont think killing him off would be a good idea, at least not this soon; Consider that it's likely gadaffi was prepared for this sort of thing, which most dictators these days are want to be, if we kill gadaffi he's probably has a list of sucessors ready to take up the lybian "throne". Knowing our luck the replacement would be someone who isnt as hated among the people as gadaffi, or worse, is alot smarter than Gad.
I'm probably wrong and worrying over nothing, Just my 2 cent.

[Hax]

AQ will of course be present

Who are these al-Qaeda people anyway? Aren't we just using that name just to instill fear in people, the same way how we use "terrorists" to cease any debate on such issues?

[Shibumi]

Who are these al-Qaeda people anyway? Aren't we just using that name just to instill fear in people, the same way how we use "terrorists" to cease any debate on such issues?

PJ, what happened to your name? ;D

If I understood it correctly, it is a top-secret group of highly skilled and trained terrorists. UBL is leading them from some sort of Batman cave, a command bunker with Star Trek technology. Or was it Star Trekish? Or is it more like Matrix, with numbers and letters flowing down the screens.

Regardless, it is a very real threat, and we need to go all "whack-a-mole" on civilians rights, you know, to uphold those rights, in the long run, that is.

[gaelic cowboy]

Ha UBL are people still shaking that voodoo doll around nowadays

[Fragony]

Sarcasm is always funny but we still don't know anything about 'the rebels'. Kinda remarkable these revolutions without a face. Kinda odd no? Most silent war evar, is it happening at all, all the quality media has time for here is a dispute in Amsterdam's local&lousy football-team.

[Hax]

Most silent war evar, is it happening at all, all the quality media has time for here is a dispute in Amsterdam's local&lousy football-team.

Heh. Not really. Ever heard about the Algerian Civil War and what happened there?

[Fragony]

Heh. Not really. Ever heard about the Algerian Civil War and what happened there?

'We' didn't launch an international attack there, we have absolutely no business attacking Libya. They are no friends but not our enemies either. Gut says this is going to hit us back. These rebels,whoever they are, aren't friendly to us, we have been dragged into an ordinary clanwar and about to arm whoever. More weapons in Africa yay, causing more death congratulations, there is something wrong with us

[Viking]

Nothing that indicates they are not friendly. That said, it is not a major concern of mine - support people's rule.

[Skullheadhq]

Didn't read those 20 pages, but just wanna say I support the colonel.

[Meneldil]

This revolution isn't sexy. I'm not buying it.