US gubmint shutdown + default + subprime sequel?

[rory_20_uk]

In the UK there was a massive outcry when large postoffices that contained little more than open space to line up waiting for the tills. Most of these have been replaced with small counters in shops. They do the same job in a lot less space.

Some have claimed the network must remain in place as some elderly can not use computers - rather than solutions to the problem, keep everything the way it is...

There are few things that have to be sent through the post. Most of the rest is either historically sent through the post or people think it would be nice to have sent in the post. The former category can be sent via email. The latter can be sent at what the item costs to send.

I can send a 30kg parcel anywhere in the UK. It will be picked up from my doorstep at a set point. I purchase it online and print the label myself. This service costs £5. Not bad, I think. I've sent 400g through Royal Mail having to go to a post office and the rest of the hassle for roughly the same cost.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

In the UK there was a massive outcry when large postoffices that contained little more than open space to line up waiting for the tills. Most of these have been replaced with small counters in shops. They do the same job in a lot less space.

Some have claimed the network must remain in place as some elderly can not use computers - rather than solutions to the problem, keep everything the way it is...

There are few things that have to be sent through the post. Most of the rest is either historically sent through the post or people think it would be nice to have sent in the post. The former category can be sent via email. The latter can be sent at what the item costs to send.

I can send a 30kg parcel anywhere in the UK. It will be picked up from my doorstep at a set point. I purchase it online and print the label myself. This service costs £5. Not bad, I think. I've sent 400g through Royal Mail having to go to a post office and the rest of the hassle for roughly the same cost.

That doesn't cover government post, does it?

[Lemur]

Looks like a compromise is not happening, and it's down to brinksmanship. Sad, really. A little perspective:

[Papewaio]

From the interview I saw on the news today... the Speaker of the House sounds like he wants his airtime.

Is he running for president?

I want the US to get their heads around this. To pay up. To keep their AAA credit rating, to not rock the boat of the world economy (although on news of this the Aussie dollar seems to have gone up not down).

I for one would like to see my government back in surplus in the next two years, despite paying $25 a ton on carbon and raising the tax free threshold to $18k. USA playing silly buggers is not , is not going to win any friends. If anything it's going to go down worse then invading Iraq. Sure push up petrol prices and kill a dictator. The implosion of the GFC was bad, but primarily the blame lies with corporations (lack of oversight by the gov isn't good, but isn't the to blame). A self created GFC II over party politics one will go down like a turd in a pool. Problem being this pool is the world economy and the long term damage will be:

AAA rating will dip making interest rates on loans to the US go up. The consequence is that it will be even harder to service debt.
Today the FX is primarily about swapping US currency. Shake that confidence and another (EU or Chinese) will take steadily over, it won't be immediate, but over time oil, gold and other contracts will be moved across.
What does a currency that is less in demand do? Well like any commodity to sell the same amount it dips in value or the contraction will have to remove more cash from the system. Essentially it amounts to the same thing. It becomes harder for the US to service overseas debts as the value of the currency goes down.
Part of the power of power is confidence. Markets run on confidence. To much brinkmanship even if it doesn't go over the brink is going to put a dent in the US economy as investors start to rethink their portfolios. Once this trend starts, it will become a long term strategy. China may not sell up its bonds, but it may slow down how many it buys. This again will have a knock on effect on the US governments budget.

I wonder how much it would cost to make an iPhone in the US?

[drone]

Aside from shotguns/ammo/canned foods, where should I put my money if the default happens? Gold is already expensive enough as is. I'm assuming we are in for rampant inflation, right?

[Lemur]

No idea. I only do long-term investing, never play the market. That's for people with far more disposable attention and energy than I have.

A good point about why a default (and the resulting recession) may be good politics for the GOP:

If in fact the debt limit is not raised well beyond the August 2 target date, and the economy suffers the severe blow that experts, Democratic politicians, and most Republican politicians believe is likely to happen -- the dissenting Republican politicians such as Michele Bachmann, Steve King, and Louie Gohmert (and other insiders) will not, in fact, admit that they were wrong about it. Instead, they will blame Barack Obama for implementing the debt limit badly. And they will do so no matter how he implemented it [...]

What's more, and this is only slightly less obvious and slightly less certain, they will almost certainly not be penalized within the GOP for being wrong. Indeed, what's far more likely is that if, as virtually all economists and budget experts currently insist, failure to raise the debt limit causes economic disaster, the likely effect within the GOP will be to enhance the prospects of those who claim that the experts don't know what they're talking about -- and any post-limit disaster will be considered yet another sign that the experts don't know what they're talking about.

So really there's no downside for the GOP, and no reason they should accept any compromise. Driving America's economy into the ditch will only help them re-take the White House and the Senate.

[gaelic cowboy]

What's more, and this is only slightly less obvious and slightly less certain, they will almost certainly not be penalized within the GOP for being wrong. Indeed, what's far more likely is that if, as virtually all economists and budget experts currently insist, failure to raise the debt limit causes economic disaster, the likely effect within the GOP will be to enhance the prospects of those who claim that the experts don't know what they're talking about -- and any post-limit disaster will be considered yet another sign that the experts don't know what they're talking about. [/ind]So really there's no downside for the GOP, and no reason they should accept any compromise. Driving America's economy into the ditch will only help them re-take the White House and the Senate.

It's almost Orwellian, no I take that back it is Orwellian.

Do these fellas have cotton wool in there ears or summit.

[Beskar]

Looks like a compromise is not happening, and it's down to brinksmanship. Sad, really. A little perspective:

That reminds me of that website ages ago which said "Can you fix the economy?" and there was lots of different options and laws, and realistic things.

I remember me, Louis, HoreTore and a few others fixing the economy by 2014 because we repealed the Bush tax cuts and removed perks of the Mega-rich, while at the same time expanding pensions, healthcare, R&D (also increase in Nasa funding) and infrastructure investment (like american autobahns). So safeguarding and creating an awesome america for everyone.

Then other forum users (republican minded) wanted to decrease taxes (!) and increase military spending, etc and killed the nation by 2012.