Poll Smoking with the Tea Party

[Lemur]

Interesting piece by some PoliSci poll smokers about the Tea Party's membership. They were conducting mass interviews with people before there was a tea party, so they've been able to correlate a lot of things that were unclear before, such as the main predictors for Tea Party membership. The whole piece is worth a read, but here are some highlights:

[W]e can look at what people told us, long before there was a Tea Party, to predict who would become a Tea Party supporter five years later. We can also account for multiple influences simultaneously — isolating the impact of one factor while holding others constant.

Our analysis casts doubt on the Tea Party’s “origin story.” Early on, Tea Partiers were often described as nonpartisan political neophytes. Actually, the Tea Party’s supporters today were highly partisan Republicans long before the Tea Party was born, and were more likely than others to have contacted government officials. In fact, past Republican affiliation is the single strongest predictor of Tea Party support today.

What’s more, contrary to some accounts, the Tea Party is not a creature of the Great Recession. Many Americans have suffered in the last four years, but they are no more likely than anyone else to support the Tea Party. And while the public image of the Tea Party focuses on a desire to shrink government, concern over big government is hardly the only or even the most important predictor of Tea Party support among voters.

So what do Tea Partiers have in common? They are overwhelmingly white, but even compared to other white Republicans, they had a low regard for immigrants and blacks long before Barack Obama was president, and they still do.

More important, they were disproportionately social conservatives in 2006 — opposing abortion, for example — and still are today. Next to being a Republican, the strongest predictor of being a Tea Party supporter today was a desire, back in 2006, to see religion play a prominent role in politics. And Tea Partiers continue to hold these views: they seek “deeply religious” elected officials, approve of religious leaders’ engaging in politics and want religion brought into political debates. The Tea Party’s generals may say their overriding concern is a smaller government, but not their rank and file, who are more concerned about putting God in government.

[Skullheadhq]

I would vote for them, looks good.

[Adrian II]

[...] even compared to other white Republicans, they had a low regard for immigrants and blacks long before Barack Obama was president, and they still do.

I believe that more then a few of them brought, like, racist placards to meetings? Isn't that right Lemur? I guess this survey would explain why they did. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought it rather quaint that the bearers of said placards were tolerated. You'd almost think there was a racist streak to the Tea Party, wouldn't you?

Nah, that couldn't be.

AII

[a completely inoffensive name]

I believe that more then a few of them brought, like, racist placards to meetings? Isn't that right Lemur? I guess this survey would explain why they did. Now correct me if I'm wrong, but I always thought it rather quaint that the bearers of said placards were tolerated. You'd almost think there was a racist streak to the Tea Party, wouldn't you?

Nah, that couldn't be.

AII

Show me the evidence that they are racist! Head down to the precrime lab, and get Tom Cruse to provide the ball that says Tea Party=Racist. Otherwise this means nothing because I saw a liberal who said Bush was Hitler.

[Ronin]

Poll smoking with a bunch of tea baggers?
I´m gonna stay away from this one :D

[drone]

So essentially the Tea Party is the religious right portion of the old GOP? Those I've been waiting for the GOP to purge from their ranks? Talk about re-branding.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Actually, there were never that many racist signs at Tea Party rallies and the Tea Party is just as likely to have persons of color involved as the GOP is in general. Some of the signs were, no doubt, carried about by racists who truly believe that there are substantive differences between races (genetics does not support this) and that one race is somehow superior to the others (no evidence supports this). Other such signs were carried by Left wing agent provacateurs so as to muck up the waters. Pretty standard tactic really, akin to planting hecklers at the other side's rallies. The Tea crowd didn't know how to stop it at first because they were so in love with their own "spontaneous grass roots" image. Political novices.

The Dems tend to acquire all the whack job lefties, hard core commies and eco-terrorists to their banner since they take a more overtly anti-corporate/pro union/pro government regulation stance. Right wing radio hosts hammer this theme constantly, in part because the more sober assessment -- that some of these ideas appeal to those of the majority of this political bent but that for the most part the do not want to reshape the USA into a new Soviet state -- doesn't sell as much ad copy.

The GOP tends to acquire all the whack job righties who want to bring back white supremacy, abolish government beyond the municipal level, or establish a theocracy since they take more of a family values/traditionalist/capitalist stance. Left wing TV hosts hammer this theme constantly because....it sells more ad copy.

Neither party would really attempt, or could even hope to pull off, the kind of sweeping changes and absolutist ideas that get so much media play -- and all of the real players know it. They're just willing to use it to shift things a few points their way whenever they can.

[Hosakawa Tito]

Hehehe, I see the liberal media is hard at work. The Tea Party isn't a political party, it's a state of mind. Tea partiers are racist? Tell me, how many liberals voted for Clarence Thomas to the Supreme Court? How many liberals voted for Marco Rubio to the Senate? Why does Congresswoman Debbie Schultz keep attacking Congressman Allen West? Does she harbor rascist feelings toward black Republicans? Must be.

The ruling political class from both parties don't like their colleagues who claim to be of a "Tea Party" frame of mind. They don't "play along to get along". Aren't accepting the committe assignment bribes and pork barrel slush fund money to vote against their principles and values. Have been immune to threats of having their congressional districts gerrymandered out of existence or re-election funding withheld. They are voting according to the principles they campaigned on in accordance with their constituents' wishes, how quaint eh? The political elites and media pr firms fear that contagion of thought will spread. The Republicans wish to co-opt them, the Dems destroy.

[Beskar]

Show me the evidence that they are racist! Head down to the precrime lab, and get Tom Cruse to provide the ball that says Tea Party=Racist. Otherwise this means nothing because I saw a liberal who said Bush was Hitler.

Wouldn't happen, Tom Cruise would need to leave the closet first before he could head out to Precrime HQ.