2012 U.S. Presidential Election

[Hooahguy]

All I care about this election is that Johnson get at least 5% of the popular vote.

[Hax]

I'll just go ahead and assume you mean Lyndon B. Johnson.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I don't think the skills of a race car driver translate to the presidency very well.

[Ronin]

I don't think the skills of a race car driver translate to the presidency very well.

why not? it's all about staying the course!

[CountArach]

All I care about this election is that Johnson get at least 5% of the popular vote.

Not going to happen.

[Hooahguy]

Yeah but a guy can wish.

[Ignoramus]

What is it with the US voting system? Couldn't they just use simple written paper ballots that are manually counted? That would surely avoid the controversy of interference by election officials?

Says an Australian

[Ronin]

What is it with the US voting system? Couldn't they just use simple written paper ballots that are manually counted? That would surely avoid the controversy of interference by election officials?

Says an Australian

works over here....

[Strike For The South]

I am watching the election with my pops which means its on Fox News

i ain't even mad, because I love Megyn Kelly, I would do terrible ungodly things to her

even if she does spell Meagan wrong.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I'm calling it for Obama, in a landslide. There just aren't enough gullible idiots for Romney to make it close. Plus, any self-respecting woman should be voting for anything but the Romney-Ryan ticket.

Will i be right!? Probably. I've picked the correct superbowl winner three years in a row, so i must be right.:D

According to Nate Silver's blog, of the three most probable scenarios, two of them have obama at 330 electoral votes or above.

[Xiahou]

According to Nate Silver's blog, of the three most probable scenarios, two of them have obama at 330 electoral votes or above.

I would be very surprised if Obama wins that big.....

[drone]

What is it with the US voting system? Couldn't they just use simple written paper ballots that are manually counted? That would surely avoid the controversy of interference by election officials?

Says an Australian

We don't have a "voting system". Voting is controlled at the state and local level, so the methods, funding, efficiency, and corruptibility vary greatly by locale.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

We don't have a "voting system". Voting is controlled at the state and local level, so the methods, funding, efficiency, and corruptibility vary greatly by locale.

Fifty experiments in Republican government! Woot!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'm not sure why republicans think the turnout will look like 2010. Young people often skip the 'in between' elections. Many people only get interested for the presidential.

My favorite theory is that the Amish will turnout big and swing ohio and pennsylvania. Polls don't factor them in--they don't have telephones!

[a completely inoffensive name]

I would be very surprised if Obama wins that big.....

I agree with you. Obama would need to take all the contested states to get over 330. That being said, the most probable scenario (at 20%) is Obama sweeping every swing state. Given Nate's track of 99% accuracy in the past, I would say to keep your mind open for anything.

[Strike For The South]

Nate Silver is an ass and I am absolutely sick of hearing about him.

Everyone of you hemp wearing hippies need shut your mouths and find a damn job

[Xiahou]

I'm not sure why republicans think the turnout will look like 2010. Young people often skip the 'in between' elections. Many people only get interested for the presidential.

My favorite theory is that the Amish will turnout big and swing ohio and pennsylvania. Polls don't factor them in--they don't have telephones!

Obama isn't riding a wave of hope and change this time either, so it's not rational to expect a Democrat turnout like 2008. It's going to be somewhere in between- the question, of course, is where? I'm just thrilled that my state, Pennsylvania, is marginally in play this time. It makes me feel as though my vote actually matters....

I agree with you. Obama would need to take all the contested states to get over 330. That being said, the most probable scenario (at 20%) is Obama sweeping every swing state. Given Nate's track of 99% accuracy in the past, I would say to keep your mind open for anything.

I'm 99% sure he's not 99% accurate.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I agree with you. Obama would need to take all the contested states to get over 330. That being said, the most probable scenario (at 20%) is Obama sweeping every swing state. Given Nate's track of 99% accuracy in the past, I would say to keep your mind open for anything.

He conveniently compiles polling data and analyzes it

I could have 95% accuracy by flipping coins based on toss up states

[Lemur]

He conveniently compiles polling data and analyzes it

I don't understand the Nate hostility. Didn't anybody watch Moneyball?

[a completely inoffensive name]

I think that people don't like it when elections are called before they want it to be called. Democrats disregarded Nate in 2010 when he accurately called the Tea Party revolution sweeping into Congress. It undermines civic pride in a way to have the notion that your counted vote means nothing 2-3 possibly 4 days before the election. Obama has been over 80% to win for at least half a week and many on the right have been bashing him non stop for the past month.

[Xiahou]

I don't understand the Nate hostility. Didn't anybody watch Moneyball?

It's not hostility so much as we don't worship him as a polling god, as some seem to.

Those who are interested, you can watch the state-by-state results come in on Politico. I think I'm gonna walk away from my computer for an hour and come back when there's something to look at....

[Lemur]

It's not hostility so much as we don't worship him as a polling god, as some seem to.

Hmm, well, anybody who is "worshipped," by definition, should be mocked and derided. But maybe I'm reading the wrong blogs, 'cause I don't see it.

Silver took baseball statistical techniques and applied them to politics. And he's had a decent scorecard. So he's a data point worth looking at, and prolly a lot more worthwhile than the talking heads on cable news. No more, no less. Seems like Silver's become a whipping boy for the right in the last month, which is just weird.

[Lemur]

Obama isn't riding a wave of hope and change this time either, so it's not rational to expect a Democrat turnout like 2008.

It may not be rational, but it may be empirical. Early signs:

Virginia election officials said statewide turnout would likely meet or exceed the 2008 presidential election. State Board of Elections Secretary Donald Palmer said robust turnout led to long lines at polling places across the state and waits varied from one to up to four hours.

Officials say they were working with localities to bring in more voting equipment and staff to help ease lines at polls that opened at 6 a.m. Tuesday.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

People who are really invested in following the polling dislike the polls that look bad for them. That's why the democrats often hate on rasmussen, and were attacking gallup earlier. And partisans on the other side throw those polls in their face.

Personally I think we should have fewer polls...it seems like the polls themselves can affect the race when they shouldn't really.

edit:

Haven't seen anything positive for romney so far

[TinCow]

It may not be rational, but it may be empirical. Early signs:

Virginia election officials said statewide turnout would likely meet or exceed the 2008 presidential election. State Board of Elections Secretary Donald Palmer said robust turnout led to long lines at polling places across the state and waits varied from one to up to four hours.

Officials say they were working with localities to bring in more voting equipment and staff to help ease lines at polls that opened at 6 a.m. Tuesday.

People I talked to at my polling place said they had never seen lines remotely as long as there were today. I have no idea why so many people have turned out, but it's hard to dispute that's happening here. McDonnell said a little while ago that some precincts couldn't even begin counting until after 8:30 because the lines were so long it took people that long to finish voting, even though the polls closed at 7pm.

[Beskar]

The voting so far looks like the overall popular majority are voting Mitt, but Obama is getting the EC votes.

[GeneralHankerchief]

CNN just called it for Obama. Ohio put him over.

Yawn.

[Hooahguy]

Alright guys, predictions for the 2016 race?

[Memnon]

Alright guys, predictions for the 2016 race?

Assuming the Mayans were correct, I'm going to say proton number #7,984,376,716,903 sweeps what is mostly empty space, otherwise, I'm gonna wait and see.

[Strike For The South]

If CNN shows Kenya one more time I will personally hunt down John King

Talk about missing the point of America

No talent jackasses