The Next Step for the GOP

[a completely inoffensive name]

While the race is not over yet between Obama and Romney, the forecasts seem to put Romney behind by a considerable margin. Whether this will change after the debates starting tonight remains to be seen. But if we take as a given that Romney will lose, the question of "where do the GOP go from here" seems to be important.

Due to the changing demographics of the US, a party cannot win based off of white voters anymore. It is still possible for this election perhaps, but by 2016, this strategy looks to be done for. As such, both the Democrats and the GOP have been noticeably catering to latino voters who are for the most part independents that tend to vote Democratic but can be persuaded to vote Republican under the right circumstances. This is because a large population of latino voters according to the stats are very religious, mostly Catholic if I remember correctly. African Americans also have a large religious constituency, but for other (some obvious) reasons are unlikely to switch over to Republicans.

The GOP seems to be making a smart decision in how they are expanding their ranks. By catering to latino culture and religiosity, mostly through social issues the GOP could once again become the dominant party by going in the direction of being even more religious based. Because of this, does it seem given that Marco Rubio will become the next GOP candidate? Predicting this early seems stupid, but then again everyone seemed to have their money on Romney being next in line mere months after election day, 2008.

Other demographics are also up for grabs it seems, I heard an NPR report that talked about Asian-American communities being very undecided on who they feel most aligned with.

I read a lot of idiots online talking about how with the defeat of Romney, the GOP structure will come crashing down like a deck of cards. But the GOP has plenty of able candidates with many strengths to promote, and there is a lot of unexplored territory when it comes to this new era of multicultural American politics. The defeat of Romney, if it happens will not be the killing blow for the GOP in my opinion, but simply the end of a tactic that has served the party well over the past 30 years. The GOP reinvented themselves quite rapidly after Nixon, I do not doubt that they can do it again.

Thoughts?

EDIT: I guess I could clarify, the GOP efforts seem to be mostly concentrated on local and some state levels. The current batch of GOP candidates on the Federal level as well as certain states like Arizona still primarily cater to the scared white people that want a border wall to feel safe.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The margin is considerable in the College of Electors, but much closer across the board. Voting history over the last few elections make it obvious that some of the polls showing a nine or ten point margin for Obama in Ohio and Florida are skewed. However, it does seem likely that a smaller margin is breaking toward Obama and Obama does not need a 10% win to claim all of a given states electors, only half plus one of those voting.

I think the GOP is losing ground with much of the non-Cuban Latino vote. However, a 65-35 split against is far easier to work on than the 91-9 split among Americans of African descent. More important still is the split that favors Dems among women.

Reaching these groups is doable, moreover. Too much of the Dem side treats these blocs as large single issue blocs -- immigration and abortion respectively -- and a careful program that does NOT treat them as monoliths and works to show how the GOP message connects to the many varied values they hold can work.

[Hooahguy]

I think the vast majority of voters who arent voting for Romney are turned off by the GOPs social conservatism. I think if they went more centrist then it would be much easier for them to win. Its hard to be seen as a "small government" party when you also advocate policies that increase government's involvement in citizen's private lives. Like gay marriage.

[Tellos Athenaios]

The margin is considerable in the College of Electors, but much closer across the board. Voting history over the last few elections make it obvious that some of the polls showing a nine or ten point margin for Obama in Ohio and Florida are skewed. However, it does seem likely that a smaller margin is breaking toward Obama and Obama does not need a 10% win to claim all of a given states electors, only half plus one of those voting.

I think the GOP is losing ground with much of the non-Cuban Latino vote. However, a 65-35 split against is far easier to work on than the 91-9 split among Americans of African descent. More important still is the split that favors Dems among women.

Reaching these groups is doable, moreover. Too much of the Dem side treats these blocs as large single issue blocs -- immigration and abortion respectively -- and a careful program that does NOT treat them as monoliths and works to show how the GOP message connects to the many varied values they hold can work.

Dunno: if you want to position yourself as a credible alternative for those who vote Democrat out of need (them being the lesser evil) more than conviction you would need to lose a lot of the GOP talking points. Fast. This ranges from pretty much every social issue to quite a few budget issues and perhaps even to conduct when in office. I.e. it might help not to block the budget over sheer stubbornness on your part. At least it might help if you were not perceived as such.

But then again doing that is sure to annoy the socially conservative (Christian) and the US-armed-forces-flag-waving conservative voters.

[rvg]

I think the vast majority of voters who arent voting for Romney are turned off by the GOPs social conservatism. I think if they went more centrist then it would be much easier for them to win. Its hard to be seen as a "small government" party when you also advocate policies that increase government's involvement in citizen's private lives. Like gay marriage.

GOP needs to move towards Ron Paul's fiscal and social stances. Not fully embrace them, but definitely move in that direction.

[drone]

Much will depend on how the House and Senate fall out. I'm usually for gridlock, but I think it's time the GOP gets marginalized on all fronts for a while. The inmates are running the asylum.

But the GOP has plenty of able candidates with many strengths to promote, and there is a lot of unexplored territory when it comes to this new era of multicultural American politics.

Not sure I agree with this line of thinking. Romney is the candidate mainly because all of his opposition were unelectable loons. 2016 is going to be interesting, I'm pretty sure the candidates from both sides are going to disappoint.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Much will depend on how the House and Senate fall out. I'm usually for gridlock, but I think it's time the GOP gets marginalized on all fronts for a while. The inmates are running the asylum.

Not sure I agree with this line of thinking. Romney is the candidate mainly because all of his opposition were unelectable loons. 2016 is going to be interesting, I'm pretty sure the candidates from both sides are going to disappoint.

There are plenty of up and coming Republican members from Congress and state Governor positions that decided to sit out on this election cycle for whatever reason. Marco Rubio and Chris Christie comes to mind. If Romney loses this one, just look out for a lot of mayors and governors to come out of the woodworks.

[Major Robert Dump]

Chris Christie will never be elected because he is too fatzor. The best thing he could do for his chances is to go on The Biggest Loser or something, or maybe prove that "its my thyroid!". We have not had an obese president in going on 100 years I believe. You lose credibility in telling people how to live their lives when you cannot see your own penis.

[HoreTore]

Well, yes. I've been saying this for years. Unfortunately, there's too much cognitive dissonance amongst conservative leadership these days. "Freedom" to a neo-con is selective, and doesn't mean the same thing as what normal, rational human beings consider "Freedom."

The meaning of a term like "freedom" changes from person to person. Two persons can look at the same phenomenon, with one calling it freedom, the other doesn't. And the funny thing is that they're both right of course...

[a completely inoffensive name]

Chris Christie will never be elected because he is too fatzor. The best thing he could do for his chances is to go on The Biggest Loser or something, or maybe prove that "its my thyroid!". We have not had an obese president in going on 100 years I believe. You lose credibility in telling people how to live their lives when you cannot see your own penis.

I lol'd. You may be right. But nevertheless I forgot to mention Bobby Jindal, Tim Pawlenty might run again, John Thune and some others I may be missing out on. With Ron Paul finally retreating out of politics, Rand Paul may be taking up the crusade, in which case the Libertarian movement in the GOP now has a younger, more legitimate figure to rally behind and expand.

[Lemur]

You lose credibility in telling people how to live their lives when you cannot see your own penis.

Whatevs, MRD, I am now and always will be a Taft man.



"He was fat, but he had the frame that carries weight with an effect of majesty, of the sort that primitive men, and even modern men in the average, like to see in their kings and leaders."

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ah....true gravitas. Or was that gravitational field?

[ICantSpellDawg]

Much will depend on how the House and Senate fall out. I'm usually for gridlock, but I think it's time the GOP gets marginalized on all fronts for a while. The inmates are running the asylum.


Not sure I agree with this line of thinking. Romney is the candidate mainly because all of his opposition were unelectable loons. 2016 is going to be interesting, I'm pretty sure the candidates from both sides are going to disappoint.

Romney is the candidate because he is currently polling nearly half of the electorate. If he is so weak, other, stronger candidates would have faced him in the primaries. Don't delude yourself into believing this line of BS. He's got strong minuses but even stronger pluses.

[drone]

Romney is the candidate because he is currently polling nearly half of the electorate. If he is so weak, other, stronger candidates would have faced him in the primaries. Don't delude yourself into believing this line of BS. He's got strong minuses but even stronger pluses.

My point was that other, stronger candidates don't exist. And with respect to his current polling, Romney is running against a "failed" President who is quite frankly running a very poor campaign. If Romney was all that, he would be 5-10 points ahead. Weak economy, blatant lack of leadership, and no enthusiasm from the opposition base, and he's only almost level?

[rvg]

My point was that other, stronger candidates don't exist...

Oh, they exist. They just chose to sit this one out. There are plenty of top level republicans that could sweep this election in a landslide, but they didn't even bother participating in the primaries.

[drone]

That makes no sense. If these strong GOP candidates exist, why would they sit 2012 out? You have a weak Democrat incumbent and a field of loons + Romney. If Romney pulls this off, these mythical candidates are sidelined until 2020.

Romney has money and a relatively sane record of executive experience, so he had the advantage. The base will probably never trust him since he is a flip-flopping Mormon elected by the People's Republic of Massachusetts, but they will vote for him against Obama. But who else out there could have challenged Mitt in the primaries, and still be electable by the general population?

[rory_20_uk]

You only get 8 years to create a record for posterity. Better someone else sorts out the mess the country is in and takes all the difficult decisions regarding the national deficit and wastage on medical care for example.

Then when there is no incumbent and things have improved that's the time to reap the reward from the work of others.

[rvg]

Because they were too busy being corrupt pork-mongers to stand on a platform.

The plenthora of evidence that you presented speaks for itself.

[rvg]

Right, so you deny that our republican-dominated Congress is covered in Pork? What country have you been living in? Not a bill gets passed that isn't full of pork.

Since when was I talking about congress? I was talking about republicans with a realistic shot to be president.

[rvg]

Who come from Congress, Governorships, and sometimes state legislature.

So why are you tying them exclusively to Congress then?

[rvg]

I rest my case.

[drone]

Since when was I talking about congress? I was talking about republicans with a realistic shot to be president.

Names then, please. And omit those tainted by their associations with the fundies and wackier fringe tea party types, the GOP has done a remarkable job poisoning potential candidates in this manner.

[rvg]

Names then, please. And omit those tainted by their associations with the fundies and wackier fringe tea party types, the GOP has done a remarkable job poisoning potential candidates in this manner.

Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, just to name a few. Eventually, I hope Rick Snyder joins the club as well.

[Centurion1]

But everyone knows the GOP is a weak party. Why else try to rig elections and institute voting restrictions? They're desperate, dying, and need to go.

lol

[rvg]

Jeb Bush? Really? The guy who presided over the biggest election scandal in modern history?

There was no scandal. George Bush won.

[rvg]

I don't even...

Good.

[CrossLOPER]

Trolls trolling trolls.

[rvg]

Trolls trolling trolls.

Hey there! What's the news from Mother Russia?

[drone]

Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, just to name a few. Eventually, I hope Rick Snyder joins the club as well.

Mitch: The man who underbid the Iraq war by an order of magnitude? With links to Big Pharma? That would have been fun.
Jeb: Just no. The damage done by his brother is too fresh in our minds. As much as I like 41, his sons are not his strong point.
Chris: Like MRD said, no chance unless he hit the Weight Watchers.

[rvg]

Mitch: The man who underbid the Iraq war by an order of magnitude? With links to Big Pharma? That would have been fun.

Iraq war was a miscalculation by many people on many levels. Mitch is hardly unique in that sense. He is however a damn good governor.

Jeb: Just no. The damage done by his brother is too fresh in our minds. As much as I like 41, his sons are not his strong point.

Jeb is not his brother. He is a smart and articulate guy with a very good record of his governorship.

Chris: Like MRD said, no chance unless he hit the Weight Watchers.

This is not a serious argument. He's not too fat to run New Jersey, he should be good enough to run the nation.