US Federal Government Shutdown

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

I am not sure whether this merits its own thread, so if moderators deem it unnecessary, please feel free to close it.

However: I feel that a story of this magnitude deserves to be treated separately.

Essentially this thread arises out of my curiosity regarding how the US Government shutdown is perceived, both in the USA and around the world. It has been presented to me, by the news organisations which I trust, that the majority of Americans, even those who identify as Republicans, view the impasse as mindless obstructionism on the part of the Republican party. Similarly, this media suggests that this scenario can only end badly for the Republican party, whether they back down swiftly or not.

However, I am well aware that my own predispositions and the media organisations which I trust would naturally assume that this is the case. So, how do Orgahs in the US feel? Do you, particularly those who oppose the ACA, view this as a legitimate tactic, or do you think that this is an exercise in futility? Has this changed your opinion regarding the party, or made you less or more likely to vote Republican?

More generally, do Orgahs feel that there are any, theoretical, circumstances in which a party should, or could legitimately, shut down the government in an effort to force their opponents to repeal a legitimately passed statute?

Looking to the future, how does this bode for the debt ceiling?

As a personal anecdote, a friend (who has zero interest in contemporary politics) today stated that this shutdown, after the omnipresent risk of being gunned down, was a key reason why she could never bring herself to move to the States, despite the large number of academic opportunities.

I look forward to your responses.

[Fragony]

I don't know enough about American politics, what I am absolutily positively sure of is that it's ubsolutily wouldn't happen here, all politicians here understand is demanding more taxes. So without knowing nearly enough to not make a fool out of myself I kinda have to salute shutting down the government instead.

[Husar]

Like I said in another thread, it's apparently not front page news here anymore, so I'm not sure about the magnitude.

As for whether it's a good or a bad thing, well, it is not very surprising given the attitude of some Americans and especially republican politicians. Americans even wanted this to happen since they voted for a majority of republicans in congress, no?

So it's all good, not like anyone expects the government to do anything right anyway and Obama needs to be stopped because he is only the elected president.

[Sp4]

Seems like business as usual.

[Ronin]

how it's perceived over here?

Republican´s be trippin'.

[Rhyfelwyr]

As much as this will delight the anti-America crowd, remember the US isn't the worst in this regard - look at how Belgium, one of those most enlightened Benelux nations, went nearly 2 years without a government because nobody could agree on anything.

As a non-American, I just see this as typical partisan US politics.

[Fragony]

As much as this will delight the anti-America crowd, remember the US isn't the worst in this regard - look at how Belgium, one of those most enlightened Benelux nations, went nearly 2 years without a government because nobody could agree on anything.

And they are now one of the most succesfull countries in the world and surroundings. Politics are just petty games, our minister of defence is schooled to be a secretary, our state-secretary of finances never graduated for anything but high-school (havo, second lowest one, you can't even enter an university with it, too stupid, but oh so good at working with her ellbows and putting up weight) and she didn't even have economy in her package, our minister of foreign affairs is the minister of looking good on pictures where he can be jerking himself of after shake hands, etc etc.

Screw it all, we would be so much better without them.

[Andres]

As much as this will delight the anti-America crowd, remember the US isn't the worst in this regard - look at how Belgium, one of those most enlightened Benelux nations, went nearly 2 years without a government because nobody could agree on anything.

As a non-American, I just see this as typical partisan US politics.

We had a government of running affairs.

We also still had a Flemish, Brussels, Walloon and Germanophone government ()

Anyway, even during one of our deepest recent political crisises, none of our governmental institutions shut down during that period. Everything continued as normal.

How that makes Belgium worse than the US in this regard, is beyond my comprehension.

Even when playing the pettiest of petty games, our politicians aren't that irresponsible as to shut governmental services down (people pay taxes for those to WORK, not to be shut down) and put so many civil servants without income just like that.

"World leaders," they call themselves. Bravo. Congratulations

Bullying the entire world with military might but not giving a damn about the common man; nice political parties you have over there.

[Ironside]

As much as this will delight the anti-America crowd, remember the US isn't the worst in this regard - look at how Belgium, one of those most enlightened Benelux nations, went nearly 2 years without a government because nobody could agree on anything.

As a non-American, I just see this as typical partisan US politics.

As Andres pointed out, it's quite different situations. No goverment in Belgium meant that no new decisions could be made, while current system is running as normal. In the US, it means that there's quite a bit of people that will have forced unpaid vacations until it's resolved.

Personally I think the idea of "crash and burn and then rebuild" has gotten out of hand. It's some kind of block on what crash and burn really means, and instead it seems to be treated as "minor issue that goes on the insurance or something".

We're witnessing a party that's been running out of ideas, dropped their responsibillity and instead spends the time lashing out on everything the don't like .

[Montmorency]

Looking at the past 40 years, I'm surprised it took 17 since the last one to recur.

It's interesting that half of all furloughed employees come from the DoD.

[Veho Nex]

I thought this was a holiday? I mean they are still getting paid in congress and senate.

[Lemur]

This is interesting: One of the writers at NRO—deep inside the conservative media echo chamber—attempts to talk sense to the loonies. Good luck, Yuval!

Republicans did not do nearly well enough in the last election to enact legislation that would repeal Obamacare. In order to repeal that law and attempt an effective reform of our health-care system along conservative lines, they will need to do better in the next election and the one to follow. To that end, they can take several kinds of steps with regard to Obamacare in the meantime: steps that would weaken the law (by highlighting its faults or disabling some of its elements) and ultimately make it easier to replace; steps that would weaken the law’s supporters (by further connecting them to the law in the public’s mind and forcing them to defend its least popular elements) and ultimately make them easier to replace; and steps that would strengthen the law’s opponents (by clearly identifying them as opponents of an unpopular measure and champions of a more appealing approach) and help them gain more public support.

In my view (shared with all who would listen to no avail, for what it’s worth) the original defund strategy was not well suited to doing any of these things. [...]

[Republicans'] control of the House has allowed them to put some restraints on public spending, to significantly reduce the deficit, and to prevent the enactment of more progressive fiascos like those that were enacted in President Obama’s first two years in office, but it is not sufficient to allow the repeal of Obamacare. Control of the Senate would surely allow them to do more to pull the country to the right (hopefully including some meaningful entitlement reform, which is essential) and that would be very important and welcome, but, given that the president will not be eager to see his chief legislative accomplishment undone, it is likely not to be enough to allow for the full repeal of Obamacare. These may be hard facts, but they seem like fairly straightforward ones. Elections matter, and Republicans did not do enough to win the last one.

[TinCow]

The shutdown is nothing. The problem is if this rolls into the debt ceiling issue two weeks from now. The Tea Party is insane enough to actually blow that one up too.

[Montmorency]

Step 1.) Shut down the government - This is as far as some of them thought it out, and for some this is a goal in and of itself. A shut-down government is the ultimate form of de-regulation. I'm sure some are even deluded into thinking it is a state of affairs they can make permanent.

Step 2.) Shift the blame. This is so smart, what they've been doing by trying to fund the government bit by bit and piece by piece. This puts the initiative with the Tea Party, makes Obama look like the bad guy (because in typical spock-like fashion he wants the whole logic-pie or nothing at all), and also starts putting dividers into the public. The military and veterans funding stuff is huge--these demographics don't need much more incentive to lean to the far right. So far the dems and Obama are falling right into the trap. The longer this goes on, and the more Obama tries to look tough, the better off the Tea Party will be.

This isn't really about the Tea Party trying to expand its popularity. They are already popular enough, especially with demographics that actually wield influence and power in society (police, military, the ultra-rich, etc.). This whole thing is about making a statement to the base, the "foot soldiers" of the Tea Party, if you will. The lower or middle-class sorts who get their news from the echo chamber, FOX or blogs or whatever. When all is said and done, the only thing that will be different from before the shut-down is that the Tea Party as a whole will be more galvanized and feel more at odds with the existing power structure.

While it will galvanize the base, I'm not so sure that it will actually add very much to it. The lines are already set.

[Papewaio]

That is fine. And would have easier to do in the post Reagan years with Communism having collapsed.

But the cosequences of hitting the credit rating will hurt the US more then Gitmo or pissing on corpses or saying how you will do whatever you want with no consequences.

This will potentially have a long term effect in diminishing the US Dollar as it will no longer be viewed as the stable one for investors to dump into when things get turbulent in the markets.

Steadier large volume currencies have started to appear and the markets might hedge with some of the money being parked in China and the EU. That is a much larger impact then most people understand.

If that parking strategy works it will be another stake in the American economy. Massive debt with increased interest rates due to a lower rating and a dollar that plunges in time of lacking confidence instead of going up.

[Lemur]

The shutdown is nothing. The problem is if this rolls into the debt ceiling issue two weeks from now. The Tea Party is insane enough to actually blow that one up too.

Well maybe if the Tea Party succeeds in destroying our credit rating, and makes the existing debt ruinously expensive, and plunges the world markets into a nosedive ...

... then maybe you'll listen to them and see they were right all along!

[Kadagar_AV]

It is kind of hard for western countries to understand what the problem with USAnian politics is.

You pay taxes and ever so often you get a voice as to where that money should go.

... What would be the problem?



Oh well, USAnian politics in a nutshell. It's all about the "NOW!"

Granted, however, USAnians don't have much history or even shared empathy, like other actually REAL nations. Makes it kind of hard to blame them for it.

[ICantSpellDawg]

You mean those who work for a living? The government should be funded in a series of piecemeal bills, similar to those suggested by the House GOP. We were looking to fund Veterans benefits because they've earned their keep and deserve the benefits, Democrats rejected the idea because they want to play the game longer. Let's play. Fund food stamps and disability benefits next. I'd love to see democrats table that bill.

If you want to dismantle the Federal government, secession and conventional war won't work. You use the tools available to you at the time.

[drone]

I personally see a tangible benefit from a government shutdown, reduced DC traffic is great, but this can't go on for too long without serious damage. The debt limit vote in two weeks is more important, and it will be interesting to see how it all comes together (I believe the non-insane GOP reps will push that through).

An interesting side effect of the shutdown - until this gets resolved there are no more background checks for firearm purchases, which means no more firearm purchases. I wonder how well that will go over in the red states.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Yep. Drinking the kool aid. We've had no leverage for years. This is tough leverage. At this point, I loathe the federal system and what it has become. We finally have the votes to hack the thing up a bit. We have until the mid-terms to really gum things up for the other guys and extract some blood atonement before we lose the house. If we set the federal government back a few years it will just be that much weaker vs state power, where things will need to get done. Let's make these months count.

Or maybe I'm just kidding. Or maybe not? Attempts at moderation are only useful with friends in real life. On the internet, we can speak our mind, or even the thing that we wish was our mind. My own initial reaction was to cave. It almost always is, but that's why I make 45k a year and will never be able to buy a home, because I don't cut throats and steamroll other people. My representatives in DC can do that for me.

Let's start taking chances with the system that we don't believe in.

[Papewaio]

What happens if the rest of the system calls the Tea Party out?

If they reverse the situation now and go budget + debt ceiling are a tied issue (which of all the bills out there would have to be the most closely aligned unlike pork barrel additives).

Tea Party can come and play or cause the USA to not pay its dues.

Credit rating dips and therefore interest rates go up a couple of points maybe 0.1%
US dollar loses its gloss as a steady bet therefore money is diverted out of it to more stable safe economies. Means the ability to service debt goes down as the USD dips a couple of percentage points. This is more damaging then the credit rating slip as it changes people's thinking and attitudes towards the dollar. Hearts and minds of stock brokers are more fickle and the outcome more damaging then fundamentalists.

So that is a mix of internal and external.

Debt ceiling not being raised means that essential government employees aren't getting payed either. That includes the military and I expect it would have a knock on effect in funding and infrastructure to states.

Suddenly it is not just non essential white collar government employees its also all the employees. It is also all those who rely on contracts to the government and their employees will feel the pinch.

This will hit everyone in every economy and there is no way tea party members will be immune to this. Mind you their survivalist factions will be having wet dreams and spam.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Listen, if we are just crazy policy ignoramus', let's let this thing run for months. You'll show the country how truly awful we are and maybe they'll throw us out of office in one fell swoop. Problem solved, we won't be able to run for dog catcher. Small price to pay, right?

[ICantSpellDawg]

Are you against funding them piece by piece?

[Xiahou]

Are you against funding them piece by piece?

I thought the piecemeal approach was a pretty clever idea. The administration uses their shutdown theater to try to highlight how terrible the shutdown is, the GOP offers to pass continuing resolution funding what they highlight, and Democrats vote it down. It shows how unserious they are.

Speaking of shutdown theater- they actually turned out park police and other staffers to try to keep WWII vets from visiting the WWII memorial on the national mall. Mind you, the reasoning was that it was closed because of the shutdown- but the memorial is open-air and normally open to the public 24/7 unstaffed. Yet, even with no funding, they found staff to erect barriers around the memorial... which the vets broke thru.

In even more blatant shutdown theater, the Air Force - Navy football game has been ordered cancelled... even though the event requires no government funding.


Personally, I've noticed no difference since the shutdown... which is pretty much what I've expected.

[CountArach]

Speaking of shutdown theater- they actually turned out park police and other staffers to try to keep WWII vets from visiting the WWII memorial on the national mall. Mind you, the reasoning was that it was closed because of the shutdown- but the memorial is open-air and normally open to the public 24/7 unstaffed. Yet, even with no funding, they found staff to erect barriers around the memorial... which the vets broke thru.

In all the images I have been seeing it is police who are erecting the barriers and I see no reason to doubt that it is the same here. Certainly they did at the Lincoln Memorial and I would suspect elsewhere. I strongly suspect that these things have to be closed off because maintenance staff aren't on hand for cleaning etc. What would have happened if someone, to take a wild example, had sprayed a swastika on the memorial?

In even more blatant shutdown theater, the Air Force - Navy football game has been ordered cancelled... even though the event requires no government funding.

The event itself doesn't but... http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...523_story.html

At Air Force, the shutdown impacts members of the Falcons’ support staff, classified as civil service employees. They would be ineligible to travel during the shutdown. According to a report in the Colorado Springs Gazette, Air Force Athletic Director Hans Mueh, assistant football coach John Rudzinksi and the school’s sports information department were furloughed Tuesday.

You can try to blame the Democrats in any way you want for the theatre here Xiahou, but you have no leg to stand on. Your party created this mess and has to deal with everything that follows. The American people are already blaming you.

[ICantSpellDawg]

In all the images I have been seeing it is police who are erecting the barriers and I see no reason to doubt that it is the same here. Certainly they did at the Lincoln Memorial and I would suspect elsewhere. I strongly suspect that these things have to be closed off because maintenance staff aren't on hand for cleaning etc. What would have happened if someone, to take a wild example, had sprayed a swastika on the memorial?


The event itself doesn't but... http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...523_story.html

At Air Force, the shutdown impacts members of the Falcons’ support staff, classified as civil service employees. They would be ineligible to travel during the shutdown. According to a report in the Colorado Springs Gazette, Air Force Athletic Director Hans Mueh, assistant football coach John Rudzinksi and the school’s sports information department were furloughed Tuesday.

You can try to blame the Democrats in any way you want for the theatre here Xiahou, but you have no leg to stand on. Your party created this mess and has to deal with everything that follows. The American people are already blaming you.

Somehow there were enough park rangers to completely barricade the park, but not to make sure that people didn't graffiti the monument itself? LE was not effected by the shutdown. No national security either, unless the job was deemed nonessential. I'm surprised that pandacam didn't qualify, given the governments meaning of "essential services"

People like Barack Obama more than all Republicans combined. He is the magic man. Fortunately for us we don't have to run against him again. The verdict is in, we have lost the popularity contest for the remaining 3 years, might as well have fun playing the bad guy. Go back to pining about Abbott and deal with your own intractable conservative problem.

Even with this tantrum, it's unlikely that it will hurt the GOP badly enough this far away from the midterms. If we lose seats in the House, we could lose the House, but not by too much. We may still grow a few in the Senate. Even with a rebalance, the AWB wouldn't pass with the current membership, only the background checks extension which is fine by me. Maybe a 3 branch Democratic gpovernment could make some bad decisions during the lame duck which would boost Christie vs Hillary in 2016. Who gives a crap.

[Husar]

I thought the piecemeal approach was a pretty clever idea. The administration uses their shutdown theater to try to highlight how terrible the shutdown is, the GOP offers to pass continuing resolution funding what they highlight, and Democrats vote it down. It shows how unserious they are.

You mean the Democrats should allow the GOP to blackmail them and bow to their every whim for the good of the nation? That would show weakness and turn the Democrats into clowns who can easily be held hostage and extortet. No American would ever suggest such an approach if the GOP were not an American organization. In fact most GOP supporters would probably advocate the use of drone strikes...

I think the Democrats are correct in not bowing to this or else they lose all the power they currently still have.
Might suit you, but you won't fool anyone.

Not to forget that the things the GOP is willing to let through piece by piece probably all benefit the GOP and their constituents to a large part, so giving in to that would be really disadvantageous.

[Montmorency]

Piecemeal funding of a full appropriations package is an upgrade to the constant spate of CR's that these idiots have been getting away with passing. To say that it is "obviously a bad idea" is a bit of a cop out. We all agree (or an easy majority agrees) that funding should not be withdrawn from a, b, and c, so why can we pass a longer term bill funding those things and then move onto the next things. We could get out of the CR crap cycle.

1. It legitimizes the tactic.
2. It avoids the issue of actually having a conversation on what we want to have and what we want to pay for.

Somehow, in trying to clip the governments ability to control individuals in ways that nobody desires

That you don't desire.

, we are accused of McCarthyism. You are the ones running around crying terrorism because you don't like the way people are playing with your toys, (which the other people have a right to play with)

"Our toys"? So, the legislative and judicial processes are "toys"?

If you want the right to "play" with some "toys", try winning some elections. Otherwise, you're literally a bully and a thief.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Try winning some elections. That's rich. Listen, the American people are scared of, but likely want Obamacare. Here is my narrative:

The American people re-elected Barack Obama because they are more scared of the existing health care system that his hopes to replace. This I get - for all of the things I don't like, there are many things I do like about the ACA. In the reticence of the American people, they handed the reigns of spending over to the GOP to ensure that the majority of Americans who already have health insurance were not fleeced by a Senate and President who are more interested in coverage for the uninsured and those interest groups to which they are beholden, than those who are already paying through the nose. The House originates all spending bills, why? Because their numbers are recognized to be closer to the body of the whole people and the people need to hold the purse strings. As much as the President was reelected re-enforces the legitimacy of the ACA, the fact that the GOP has enough of a majority in the House to shut the government down over the individual mandate re-enforces the fact that they were literally put there to control rampant spending and Federal dictat, particularly related to this new program.

People are acting as though budgets should simply be passed, even though he deliberative body doesn't believe in the budget. Why not just get rid of the House and let the Senate and President just pass whatever they want? Negotiation is what people who hate each other do when they have to live with one another in spite of disparate agendas, and they have already fought a bloody civil war.

The one lesson of secession is that it doesn't work. There is no breaking away, it is either kill or be killed. Do you think that the 13th through 15th amendments would have ever passed during the 19th century had the South stayed and fought in the House and Senate? No way. I'm glad they were passed, but it doesn't change the fact that they were passed when the South had either no representation within the Union or the reps that they had were reconstruction era puppets. You stay and fight for what you believe in, or change your position. Death or ruin awaits for those who flee.

I think that we are approaching terrible times, but due to our past experience we will fight within the system rather than outside of it. The American people are probably already at war with one another, but the tactics will be different. The tentacles must be severed before we are all suffocated.

[Montmorency]

This right here is what should be done to the Tea Party.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: