Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Viking]

That's actually exactly what happened with Crimea. There was an armed insurgency and a referendum for independence and to join Russia immediately.

Kosovo didn't even have a sham referendum.

The only difference is that Kosovo remained independent and didn't join any other state, at least for now.

What happened in Crimea was that Russian forces, seemingly regular ones only lacking insignia, blocked all Ukrainian military bases. Russian warships also openly prevented Ukrainian ones from leaving their bases.

Supposedly, the Crimean parliament voted to hold a referendum, but it is uncertain whether or not this was a legitimate vote. Reports suggest that it was far from legitimate:

After the demonstrations had continued for several weeks, the masked soldiers entered the Crimean parliament building. The elected representatives who showed up were stripped and had their cell phones confiscated. No journalists were allowed in. Behind closed doors – while armed soliders were watching – they sacked the government, announced a referendum on independence from Ukraine and elected Sergey Aksyonov to be prime minister. In the elections in 2010, Aksyonov’s party, Russian Unity, won only 4 per cent of the votes and 3 of the 100 seats in the assembly.

Rules require that at least 51 representatives be present in order to hold a qualified vote. The new goverment says 61 members of parliament took part. Aftenposten’s research shows, however, that only 36 were present.

- The system which registers who voted, and what we voted for or against, shows I did cast a vote. But I was not there. Neither were a large majority of my colleagues, says Sumulidi. Representative Irina Klyuyeva also participated in the vote, according to the official records, but she was not present either.

Or to put it this way: if the democratic procedures for Crimea had been followed, Crimea may have remained within Ukraine. It is uncertain exactly how much support the unification with Russia had and there is no specific reason to trust that the numbers from the referendum are the real ones.

Why the need to rush things in Crimea? The fact that they did adds to the likelyhood of that the outcome of all this was already decided in advance and that the people behind it wasn't really interested in whether a majority of the population actually supported it or not.

Kosovo's declaration of independence happened during a normal parliamentary session, as far as I know. Compare that with the stormed parliament of Crimea.

By the way, why does the Serb-dominated areas in northern Kosovo remain within Kosovo? It would make sense for them to be with the rest of Serbia.

[Gilrandir]

It is uncertain exactly how much support the unification with Russia had and there is no specific reason to trust that the numbers from the referendum are the real ones.

Tatars estimate the real pro-Russian referendum votes at 36%.

[Brenus]

“And Germany and the UK.” So, I see you agree that Panama is an artificial creation from the US in order to secure a strategic asset…

“it was the Kosovars that did that themselves through armed insurgency and later their parliament.” Nope. The KLA was in full retreat at that time. Only NATO bombing saved them and put them in power, in the luggage. We let them have their fun then they signed what we wanted, where we wanted, when we wanted. If not they can negotiate with Serbia, when they feel it...

“there should have been peace in Serbia” You mean like in Ukraine now? So Putin would have just to wait the bloodbath to start then it would be ok?

“then NATO came and occupied Kosovo. That's not what happened.” No, what happened is NATO bombed Serbia then occupied part of its territory, then gave it (well, more a loan than really a gift) to the Albanians, then dictated a sham constitution that gave no one satisfaction, put a vice-Roy in the job, then let the natives live how we want them to live.

“then remember that we do not know who did it, nor do we know why it happened.” I know and I saw enough manipulations to be careful about who did what. What I am saying is a President of a Country shouldn’t call for murder. Because it is an opened door for extremists to do exactly what he told them to do: Radovan KARADIZ as far as I know, killed no one himself. He is in The Hague for Srebrenica because he is rightly considered as one the keys elements that allowed this to happen.
You can’t call for murder and then pretend it was not your intention but just a figure of speech.

“By the way, why does the Serb-dominated areas in northern Kosovo remain within Kosovo?” Because each time they tried we sent the troops… To be fair, we would do the same if the Albanians decided to join Albania. They asked, we said no, they knew their place, they obeyed.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

“And Germany and the UK.” So, I see you agree that Panama is an artificial creation from the US in order to secure a strategic asset....

The USA did not create Panamanian separatism, there was a sizeable sentiment that way as it was. We did....foster it....just a bit though.

[Brenus]

"Russian-Crimean public works project," No, just protection of gazoduc so Europe will have access to needed supplies...

[Viking]

“And Germany and the UK.” So, I see you agree that Panama is an artificial creation from the US in order to secure a strategic asset…

You don't think it's wise to have bases in zones of ethnic conflict like in Kosovo? The US pulled out of Iraq, and we see what happens there.

“it was the Kosovars that did that themselves through armed insurgency and later their parliament.” Nope. The KLA was in full retreat at that time. Only NATO bombing saved them and put them in power, in the luggage. We let them have their fun then they signed what we wanted, where we wanted, when we wanted. If not they can negotiate with Serbia, when they feel it...

The point was that with no Kosovan insurgency, no independent Kosovo today.

“there should have been peace in Serbia” You mean like in Ukraine now? So Putin would have just to wait the bloodbath to start then it would be ok?

I'm not so sure any bloodbath would have started without Putin. For starters, at least two separatist leaders are Russian nationals: Borodai and Strelkov (an FSB colonel until 2013 by his own admission).

“then NATO came and occupied Kosovo. That's not what happened.” No, what happened is NATO bombed Serbia then occupied part of its territory, then gave it (well, more a loan than really a gift) to the Albanians, then dictated a sham constitution that gave no one satisfaction, put a vice-Roy in the job, then let the natives live how we want them to live.

And how exactly was this "sham constitution" dictated?

“then remember that we do not know who did it, nor do we know why it happened.” I know and I saw enough manipulations to be careful about who did what. What I am saying is a President of a County shouldn’t call for murder. Because it is an opened door for extremists to do exactly what he told them to do: Radovan KARADIZ as far as I know, killed no one himself. He is in The Hague for Srebrenica because he is rightly considered as one the keys elements that allowed this to happen.
You can’t call for murder and then pretend it was not your intention but just a figure of speech.

I like to think that they got something better on Karadžić than an isolated incidence where he said "For every soldier of our own killed, the enemy will pay with tens and hundreds of their own soldiers".

“By the way, why does the Serb-dominated areas in northern Kosovo remain within Kosovo?” Because each time they tried we sent the troops…

Sounds like a bad decision.

To be fair, we would do the same if the Albanians decided to join Albania. They asked, we said no, they knew their place, they obeyed.

You mean they asked to join Albania? Found this from 2007:

Yet neither in Kosovo nor in Albania have politicians advocating union ever made headway. A poll in Kosovo in 2005 found that whereas more than 90% backed independence, fewer than 10% wanted union with Albania. This points to a conclusion that Albanian nationalists hate: younger Albanians in Kosovo have developed a Kosovar identity of their own. It is not that they do not feel Albanian; rather that they see no contradiction in feeling Kosovar as well.

[Sarmatian]

What happened in Crimea was that Russian forces, seemingly regular ones only lacking insignia, blocked all Ukrainian military bases. Russian warships also openly prevented Ukrainian ones from leaving their bases.

Which is somehow worse than NATO bombing the hell out of military and civilian targets, so that Kosovo can become independent?

Supposedly, the Crimean parliament voted to hold a referendum, but it is uncertain whether or not this was a legitimate vote. Reports suggest that it was far from legitimate:



Or to put it this way: if the democratic procedures for Crimea had been followed, Crimea may have remained within Ukraine. It is uncertain exactly how much support the unification with Russia had and there is no specific reason to trust that the numbers from the referendum are the real ones.

Just about everything is illegal and illegitimate in Ukraine these days. Yanukovich impeachment was illegal, which means he's still the president according to the constitution, which means elections could not have been held for a new president, which means Poroshenko's presidency is not legal, and he can't command Ukrainian armed forces etc...

Why the need to rush things in Crimea? The fact that they did adds to the likelyhood of that the outcome of all this was already decided in advance and that the people behind it wasn't really interested in whether a majority of the population actually supported it or not.

Why the need to rush things in Kiev? A deal was made, elections were supposed to be held.

Kosovo's declaration of independence happened during a normal parliamentary session, as far as I know. Compare that with the stormed parliament of Crimea.

After the region was ethnically cleansed of non-Albanians and undesirable political options removed.

By the way, why does the Serb-dominated areas in northern Kosovo remain within Kosovo? It would make sense for them to be with the rest of Serbia.

I don't know. Why is the Serbian part of Bosnia not allowed a referendum? You tell me....

[Brenus]

“You don't think it's wise to have bases in zones of ethnic conflict like in Kosovo?”: Yeah, sure, it is like to put a plaster on the wound you inflict on yourself… So, for how long? We created Kosovo under the pretext the Albanians couldn’t live within Serbia but apparently the Serbs in Kosovo can live with the Albanians (and the Kosovar Albanians suddenly love the Kosovar Serbs).

“The point was that with no Kosovan insurgency, no independent Kosovo today.” So, without an Insurgency in Crimea no call for reunification with Russia… It is funny how powers react fast when needed, in some specific occasions…

“I'm not so sure any bloodbath would have started without Putin” The shooting, snipers and others clashes happened when Putin was busy with the Olympic Games, so, you can’t put this one on his door. Gilrandir wrote (I was busy toppling Yanukovych) that he went in the street to topple the former president and all events followed this political aim.
I still maintain, and nothing until now disproved this, that both US/EU and Russia were surprised by the events and both played theirs cards. Just Putin had a better hand and created the unexpected.

“two separatist leaders are Russian nationals: Borodai and Strelkov” And?

“And how exactly was this "sham constitution" dictated?” Easy, sign here, here and here or you negotiate with Serbia (UNMIK enacted a "Constitutional Framework for Provisional Self-Government).

“Found this from 2007:” I don’t think so. In all demonstrations in Kosovo or in Macedonia from Albanians, you will have the Albanians flags, or during wedding. All the young Albanians I spoke with when working there were very Albania orientated. Families sent their kids to Tirana, not to Pristina or Tetovo. I don’t know who did manage this polls, but my empiric experience would tell it is not true (I managed a programm financed by EU and European Bank for Development in the region, 2 in fact, 1 before the Albanian Insurrection (2001) (and no independence this time EU/US didn’t want it) and after, first in Ohrid, Debar, second near Skopje and Tetovo, Gostivar). I can’t say my approach is scientific, but I really doubt of this figure.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Which is somehow worse than NATO bombing the hell out of military and civilian targets, so that Kosovo can become independent?

The violence started AFTER the Russians moved in, NATO (however misguided) was responding to things the Serb army was already doing.

Why the need to rush things in Kiev? A deal was made, elections were supposed to be held.

The president RAN, that's why.

I don't know. Why is the Serbian part of Bosnia not allowed a referendum? You tell me....

Because the politicians on all sides couldn't agree to work together after Tito died.

Why are their Hindu's in Pakistan and Muslims in India?

[Brenus]

“The violence started AFTER the Russians moved in” Where? In Maidan? There is still no violence in Crimea, the only violence is actually in Eastern Ukraine and there is no Russian Forces involved (at least officially/proved). The violence started there after the toppling of the President and few ill-advised movements from the provisional government. To try to separate events as Gilrandir did is irrelevant (and goodies and badies).
During all the times when the demonstrations were for social and economic improvements none of the “Russian” movements started. It started when the President run for his life and when suddenly it became political, and a shift from Russia to EU in short. So, the “Russian” side didn’t have to start from scratch, they just picked-up after the storming and ousting of the President (whom they elected if I have to believe the media). It then that Putin played his card and moved in Crimea, not before, so your claim just don’t match with chronology.

From BBC:
21 November: President Yanukovych's cabinet abandons an agreement on closer trade ties with EU, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Ukrainian MPs also reject a bill to allow Yulia Tymoshenko to leave the country. Small protests start and comparisons with the Orange Revolution begin.
Early December 2013: Protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square in dramatic style, turning it into a tent city. Biggest demonstration yet sees 800,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev.
(My comment: That is 15 days, not 1 month and half as proclaimed by Gilrandir, by the way)
16-23 January: Parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws, Days later two people die of gunshot wounds as clashes turn deadly for first time. Third death reported as the body of high-profile activist Yuriy Verbytsky is found. Protesters begin storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.
28-29 January: Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resigns and parliament annuls the anti-protest law. Parliament passes amnesty bill promising to drop charges against all those arrested in unrest if protesters leave government buildings. Opposition rejects conditions.
18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead, including seven police officers, and hundreds more wounded. Some 25,000 protesters are encircled in Independence Square.
Kiev sees its worst day of violence for almost 70 years. At least 88 people are killed in 48 hours. Video shows uniformed snipers firing at protesters holding makeshift shields.
21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders.
22 February:
President Yanukovych disappears
Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings
Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections set for 25 May
Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup"
His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail
23-26 February: Parliament names speaker Olexander Turchynov as interim president. An arrest warrant is issued for Mr Yanukovych, and the acting president warns of the dangers of separatism. Members of the proposed new government appear before demonstrators, with Arseniy Yatsenyuk nominated prime minister. The elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters, is disbanded
27-28 February: Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appear outside Crimea's main airports. At his first news conference since fleeing to Russia, Mr Yanukovych insists he remains president.
1 March: Russia's parliament approves Vladimir Putin's request to use force in Ukraine to protect Russian interests. Pro-Russian rallies are held in several Ukrainian cities outside Crimea, including the second-biggest city Kharkiv. Barack Obama tells Mr Putin to pull forces back to bases.

Ccl: Violence started in Ukraine long before Russian invaded Crimea…

“Because the politicians on all sides couldn't agree to work together after Tito died.” So, 20/30 years after, they still can’t have a referendum? Strange isn’t it?

[Viking]

YouTube videos uploaded yesterday appear to show Grad rockets being fired from Russian territory towards Ukraine. The Interpreter has geolocated them, and have more updates here:

1430GMT: The citizen reporter in Gukovo who filmed Grad rockets taking off from Russia and flying into Ukraine has had his page removed from VKontakte, Russia’s most popular social network.
Dmitry Tlustangelov was relaxing at the lake in Gukovo with his family yesterday when he caught sight of smoke across the water and videotaped it with his camera phone. A little boy’s voice is heard saying, “What is that?” And he replies, “It’s a Grad.”

[...]

From his profile, we can see that Tlustangelov, age 20, who studied at the police academy, makes an unlikely hero for Maidan. His entries show him proudly wearing the black-and-orange St. George ribbon of Russia nationalists and pro-Russian separatists, and his VK entries are filled with the things typical of his age and views — Russian nationalist inspirational sayings, anti-Ukrainian jokes and memes, and a crude, racist joke about Obama.

“You don't think it's wise to have bases in zones of ethnic conflict like in Kosovo?”: Yeah, sure, it is like to put a plaster on the wound you inflict on yourself… So, for how long? We created Kosovo under the pretext the Albanians couldn’t live within Serbia but apparently the Serbs in Kosovo can live with the Albanians (and the Kosovar Albanians suddenly love the Kosovar Serbs).

Again, NATO did not start the war in Kosovo. And again, NATO did not create an independent Kosovo, the Kosovars did that. NATO allowed the Kosovan militants to win, and what they did with their victory was up to them as long as it was democratic.

If you want to find examples of where Russia actually did something that compares to what NATO did in Kosovo, go to Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Except from the war with Georgia, I have no major issues with what Russia did there and that I know of, and I think that Western policy here is badly mistaken.

“The point was that with no Kosovan insurgency, no independent Kosovo today.” So, without an Insurgency in Crimea no call for reunification with Russia… It is funny how powers react fast when needed, in some specific occasions…

There was no insurgency in Crimea, it was an invasion without insignia.

“I'm not so sure any bloodbath would have started without Putin” The shooting, snipers and others clashes happened when Putin was busy with the Olympic Games, so, you can’t put this one on his door.

I am thinking about the stuff that goes on in the east. What happened in Kyiv pales in comparison.

“two separatist leaders are Russian nationals: Borodai and Strelkov” And?

That's potential evidence pointing in a certain direction.

“And how exactly was this "sham constitution" dictated?” Easy, sign here, here and here or you negotiate with Serbia (UNMIK enacted a "Constitutional Framework for Provisional Self-Government).

I see all kinds of nationalities involved in UNMIK.

“Found this from 2007:” I don’t think so. In all demonstrations in Kosovo or in Macedonia from Albanians, you will have the Albanians flags, or during wedding. All the young Albanians I spoke with when working there were very Albania orientated. Families sent their kids to Tirana, not to Pristina or Tetovo. I don’t know who did manage this polls, but my empiric experience would tell it is not true (I managed a programm financed by EU and European Bank for Development in the region, 2 in fact, 1 before the Albanian Insurrection (2001) (and no independence this time EU/US didn’t want it) and after, first in Ohrid, Debar, second near Skopje and Tetovo, Gostivar). I can’t say my approach is scientific, but I really doubt of this figure.

Kosovo had no flag of it own at that point, so I don't know which flag you want them to fly. The article brings it up:

Over the next few months this debate will intensify, not least because Kosovo will need a flag. Today Kosovo Albanians use Albania's; but if Kosovo becomes independent, it will need its own. Prominent in the discussion will be Migjen Kelmendi, who edits a paper written in Kosovo's Albanian dialect, as opposed to the standard literary form. He says that when Kosovo was oppressed by Serbia, “I had to identify with Albanianism.” Now, he feels proud about being a Kosovar as well.

Which is somehow worse than NATO bombing the hell out of military and civilian targets, so that Kosovo can become independent?

It's a bit more complicated than supporting independence.

Just about everything is illegal and illegitimate in Ukraine these days. Yanukovich impeachment was illegal, which means he's still the president according to the constitution, which means elections could not have been held for a new president, which means Poroshenko's presidency is not legal, and he can't command Ukrainian armed forces etc...

I just the word legitimate specifically. If it's claimed to be legal but turns out to be illegal, then that's shady. In this case, it's a matter of measuring the democratic legitimacy, not legality, of what happened. If only a minority of the MPs supported it or if some of them were forced into supporting it, then that's relevant.

Why the need to rush things in Kiev? A deal was made, elections were supposed to be held.

As you said, a deal was made in Kyiv. The politicians there did not rush things. In Crimea, some MPs had so little time that they found it necessary to storm the parliament with gunmen.

After the region was ethnically cleansed of non-Albanians and undesirable political options removed.

That's of course cheating, but unless there is a realistic way to return the expelled successfully, it's the hard reality. Like in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

[Gilrandir]

Gilrandir wrote (I was busy toppling Yanukovych) that he went in the street to topple the former president and all events followed this political aim.

it is again Brenus at his best: perverting others' words. Where did I say that I "went in the street"? I said I was supporting Maidan morally and a little bit financially.
By my saying that I was busy toppling Yanukovych I wanted to show that I (as well as millions of Ukrainians) can claim as much credit for ousting Mr Y as Poroshenko who you try to make responsible for toppling the legitimate president. And an addition: I don't try to defend Poroshenko (I didn't vote for him), but it is ridiculous to put him in charge of a movement which didn't have anyone in charge, in fact.

“The violence started AFTER the Russians moved in” Where? In Maidan? There is still no violence in Crimea, the only violence is actually in Eastern Ukraine and there is no Russian Forces involved (at least officially/proved).

http://www.depo.ua/rus/life/dvoe-let...17072014125700
In the article Council for National Security and Defense (RNBO) of Ukraine officially states that Ukrainian transport plane AN 26 which was brought down near Lugansk on 14 July could not have been hit by local separatists since it was hit at the height of 6.5 km. It was done either by the land-based missile complex "Panzer" (not sure if I translated it correctly) or from a plane with an X-24 air-to-air missile. Both options are not available for separatists and could only have been used by the Russian army (unless "Panzer" was operated by separatists from the Russian territory).
Plus the video from Gukovo above by Viking.
But I expect these are not proofs for Brenus. He waits for Putin to say: "Read my lips: Russia is directly involved in Eastern Ukraine". But even if he does Brenus will find figures of speech used by Putin which deny the admission.

To try to separate events as Gilrandir did is irrelevant (and goodies and badies).

I compared the two movements which others before me (namely Brenus, Sarmatian and Husar) had equated. It was done not in terms you describe; I just exposed the discrepancies which others didn't notice or chose to disregard.

So, the “Russian” side didn’t have to start from scratch, they just picked-up after the storming and ousting of the President (whom they elected if I have to believe the media). It then that Putin played his card and moved in Crimea, not before, so your claim just don’t match with chronology.

The medals Putin distributed don't match the chronology either. So are we to believe him or you?

Early December 2013: Protesters occupy Kiev city hall and Independence Square in dramatic style, turning it into a tent city. Biggest demonstration yet sees 800,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev.
(My comment: That is 15 days, not 1 month and half as proclaimed by Gilrandir, by the way)

Again misinterpretation (or is it manipulation you are so good at?). The approximate figure of 1.5 months was given by me as the term of non-violent protests. Occupying the Square of Independence (as well as the City Hall) didn't result in any casualties.

YouTube videos uploaded yesterday appear to show Grad rockets being fired from Russian territory towards Ukraine. The Interpreter has geolocated them, and have more updates here:

There are other unsavoury things: Ukrainian planes (bearing Ukrainian insignia) captured by Russians in Crimea are reported to have been made ready for usage. One of such planes is suspected of having dealt a missile blow against a residential area in Snizhne (Donetsk region) as Ukrainian aviation's flights were suspended for a couple of days after An 26 was brought down.

[GenosseGeneral]

The Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defence claims, that a Ukrainian SU-25 was shot down by a Russian plane and even more worrying, also claims that troops in Russian uniforms without insignia have been spotted on Ukrainian soil.

Taking into account, how the conflict has begun to cross the border over the last days (there have been more incidents similar to the one Viking has brought up, though without any proof besides accounts of Ukrainian forces), as well as the new wave of sanctions against Russia, I fear that a tipping point in Moscow has possibly been reached.

Concerning the jet: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe...9#TWEET1186366

Oh and Gilrandir, I suppose you mean the Pantsir?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1

[Viking]

Wow, looks like this took an unexpected turn. Passenger plane shot down?

[Fragony]

Plane -> ground

Let's blame Newton, but wtf?

[Fisherking]

http://news.sky.com/story/1302864/ma...h-295-on-board

Yep!

[Husar]

That's really horrible, 300 people who had nothing to do with the entire conflict.

It actually does sound like the rebels were "playing" with stuff they did not fully understand.
Some reports say they claimed to have shot down an AN-26 transport in the area around the same time the passenger plane was shot down...

Of course it is also somewhat strange that airlines still used to fly over that area until now.

[drone]

Malaysian Airlines is not having a good year...

[Rhyfelwyr]

Came across this and can't quite believe it. What on earth has happened here?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's really horrible, 300 people who had nothing to do with the entire conflict.

It actually does sound like the rebels were "playing" with stuff they did not fully understand.
Some reports say they claimed to have shot down an AN-26 transport in the area around the same time the passenger plane was shot down...

Of course it is also somewhat strange that airlines still used to fly over that area until now.

I believe that's the plane that the Ukrainians said must have been downed by Russia because it was flying too high to be hit by shoulder mounted missiles. A lot of people said "that's silly, they wouldn't be flying that high, why pressurise the Cabin - etc." The obvious answer being "to avoid the smaller missiles.

This latest incident suggests that the rebels do have the capability to hit plains at high altitude - although incidents of friendly fire from Patriot Batteries in the Middle East show that regulars can make this sort of mistake too.

So Either a Russian screwed up, A Ukrainian screwed up - or a Rebel screwed up. Either way, it was done with "real" Air-defence tech, so it it was the rebels that had to come from Russia.

First tanks to stand up to Ukrainian tanks - and now AA batteries to protect against Ukrainian Jets?

I seriously hope that NATO has a plan to move into Ukrainian if this escalates, because if Russia is becoming directly involved then that is unquestionable an Act of War and we need to respond with a formal declaration in that case.

[Brenus]

“The medals Putin distributed don't match the chronology either”
So, the “secret “medals, seen only by Pro-Ukrainian actual Government, have the date 20-02-14 to 18-03- 2014. So not only Putin knew when he will invade Crimea (but made a mistake during the printing) before the operation started, but he as well knew when it will ended. He is definitively better than his NATO counterparts who were absolutely surprised by the Serbian refusal to bow to bombing campaign…
This guy is a crack champion…
Let’s say he did, that means he got around 3 to 4 weeks to design and produce a medal that nobody have seen and was not distributed… Err, it take less than that to do so.
So how the people reached the conclusion it was produced before the war not only started but finished is beyond imagination: well, there is name for this: propaganda.
Let examine the dates will you? The 20th of February, who is in power: Surprise: Yanukovich was still in power.
So following the “secret” medal theory, Putin knew the storming of the Parliament, knew that the deal of the 21st of February will be just a piece of paper before it happened, then decided to make a medal in advance (err, how long, in your opinion, as apparently ¾ weeks ahead is not enough)? Do note that the ones supporting the idea link the date of the medal with the shooting on Maiden which according to BBC happened the 20th (and the 18th, but the propagandists don’t mind of facts that doesn’t match the point they want to force upon populations).
So can you explain the choice of the 1st date (from the Russian Point of View)? Looking forward to your answer(s)…

“So are we to believe him or you?” As mentioned they were never distributed, so check your facts, and this answer your question.

“Again, NATO did not start the war in Kosovo.” NATO started the war with Serbia. Serbia didn’t attack NATO, as much as I know, before NATO offensive.

“And again, NATO did not create an independent Kosovo” Yes it did, as the Countries composing NATO imposed a Peace Treaty, then decided not to respect it in creating an Independent Kosovo, tailoring a Constitution signed freely by the side favoured by NATO.

“There was no insurgency in Crimea, it was an invasion without insignia.” I am sure I read something about storming official building and Local Parliament voting for the return of Crimea in Russia…
Ah yes
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26643141
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26609667
http://gawker.com/ukraine-warns-of-s...rup-1530432058

“What happened in Kyiv pales in comparison.” Agree.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.600998

“That's potential evidence pointing in a certain direction.” In what aspect? Only by nationality?

“Kosovo had no flag of it own at that point, so I don't know which flag you want them to fly” Good point.

About Racak, this was stage by William Walker, head of the CIA at that time in the region (funny enough, I rented the house he lived in in Croatia later). None of the forensic evidences shown any traces of massacre, but bodies were carried and disposed as needed for media/propaganda machine to allow NTO intervention.
http://tenc.net/articles/Johnstone/Recak.html

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27344029

'Children cheered the soldiers, who marched past wearing their new orange and white ribbon medals, won for "the return of Crimea".'

Medals seen by everyone, Brenus, not secret at all.

[Brenus]

"Children cheered the soldiers, who marched past wearing their new orange and white ribbon medals, won for "the return of Crimea"." is the comment of the article, not part of the article. Now, if the journalist is able to see the difference between the medal worn by the veteran on pictures and the medal allegedly made before the war to celebrate a victory after the war, officially never distributed. He might have see the medal celebrating the victory over Germany, mind you, as it was why Putin was in Ukraine which is, orange and black, or the one for the defense of Moscow, or others, as apparently the USSR loved orange and white for the medals during and after WW2 ...
But as the journalist describes the scene, he had a lot of opportunities to take pictures of the soldiers proudly wearing these medals, marching through the streets, did he? So, were are they? He had a splendid occasion to confound the villainy of Putin and didn't size the moment? Cm'on, that was his carrier piece of luck and he missed it, what a shame!

You see, when soldiers receive medals, it is a proud moment. Lot and lot of pictures, sometimes families there, sometimes not, but be sure that the Military PR is there. So, it shouldn't be this difficult to have let's say at least one company receiving the awards. No? Nothing, and I desperately gloogled, changing the wording... Nothing. So it is probably the most secret massive distribution of medals never seen in History...

Still a mystery then...

Now, I don't doubt it will be a Medal for this. Then it will be time to tell how much you were right, and hopefully it will be Orange and white, with the appropriate dates at the back.

[Fisherking]

http://news.yahoo.com/rebel-suggests...174750060.html

[Husar]

I believe that's the plane that the Ukrainians said must have been downed by Russia because it was flying too high to be hit by shoulder mounted missiles. A lot of people said "that's silly, they wouldn't be flying that high, why pressurise the Cabin - etc." The obvious answer being "to avoid the smaller missiles.

This latest incident suggests that the rebels do have the capability to hit plains at high altitude - although incidents of friendly fire from Patriot Batteries in the Middle East show that regulars can make this sort of mistake too.

So Either a Russian screwed up, A Ukrainian screwed up - or a Rebel screwed up. Either way, it was done with "real" Air-defence tech, so it it was the rebels that had to come from Russia.

Concerning the flight altitude, 10km is absolutely standard, even between relatively close airports airplanes fly as high as possible to save fuel and become faster in the thinner air. There is absolutely no reason for airplanes to fly lower even if there are only pot-smoking peace activists on the ground.

If it was a Buk, then the range was hardly a problem: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_mis...stem#Operators
A 70kg warhead is also quite devastating to any kind of plane that happens to be close to the explosion. Add in the fact that an airliner will not have warning systems and not try to evade until it is already too late and you have a real desaster if you cannot properly identify the plane you are aiming at before you shoot. I would assume that armies are aware of the civilian flights in the area and can distinguish flight patterns etc. but for rebels that is far less likely. Russians wouldn't have any reason to take such a risk.

The US didn't use their long-range advantage of radar guided missiles in Vietnam precisely because pilots had to identify their targets with their eyes before they were allowed to shoot. One would assume that Russia might employ similar rules since I'm not sure what they would gain by firing at an airliner. Not to forget that an airliner might actually survive smaller missiles as fired by most airplanes while the Buk with its enormous warhead would probably not leave much of the airplane.

[Papewaio]

At least they have found this airplane. Malaysia airlines isn't having a very good run lately.

I do wonder the sanity of civilian air flights over an inflammed hot spot.

[Beskar]

If they have one more high-profile incident, I think Malaysia airlines will be dissolved, that PR image would be horrendous for business.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

If they have one more high-profile incident, I think Malaysia airlines will be dissolved, that PR image would be horrendous for business.

Or perhaps they can merge with Carnival cruise lines.....I'll just keep on shuffling along after that one. Gotta go, gotta go.

[Gilrandir]

The Ukrainian Council of National Security and Defence claims, that a Ukrainian SU-25 was shot down by a Russian plane and even more worrying, also claims that troops in Russian uniforms without insignia have been spotted on Ukrainian soil.

An addition to Su-25 being brought down: Ukrainian experts claim they have spotted inversion traces (if I translated the term correctly) after missiles launched from a Russian plane.

Oh and Gilrandir, I suppose you mean the Pantsir?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir-S1

I did. Still too poor at rendering military-connected stuff.

So not only Putin knew when he will invade Crimea (but made a mistake during the printing) before the operation started, but he as well knew when it will ended.

He knew the latter because the medals were given out in April or May (not sure which) when the Crimean operation was well over. Russia had more than a month to mint the medals.

So can you explain the choice of the 1st date (from the Russian Point of View)? Looking forward to your answer(s)…

I can't explain. I can only speculate on the date that is a fait accompli. My speculation is well known to you (and much disbelieved and/or disliked by you): Putin had had a plan ready (since 2004) and when he saw which way the wind was blowing he kicked it off. The kicking off date is minted on the medals. But it doesn't mean that on this date something noticeable happened in Crimea. The operation started elsewhere and invasion forces were made ready.

You see, when soldiers receive medals, it is a proud moment. Lot and lot of pictures, sometimes families there, sometimes not, but be sure that the Military PR is there. So, it shouldn't be this difficult to have let's say at least one company receiving the awards.

In the same interview where Putin said his much disputed here "behind the back" phrase (ask Sarmatian where he found the English translation of it if you need a reference) he said that medals were sure to be distributed but who recieved them will remain a secret for quite a time.

One more thing to report: after the Gukovo Grad firing video was published Russian internet users started to demand from the author to delete it saying that it makes it much more difficult to deny Russian involvement in Ukraine against the general background of disbelief to what Russia says. Evidently they are mistaken as to the disbelief. There people even on this forum who still believe what Russia says.

As for the passenger plane brought down, Putin blamed it on Ukraine since it happened above its territory. How do you like the hypocrisy?
Now are there any doubts about Russia as a source of weapons for separatists or Russia supporting them in all ways? Can we now say that Russia is a state that supports terrorism?
And finally, it is about time we remembered Pannonian's incantation: I don't want to hear anything about Ukraine unless it touches us. Now it did.

[Brenus]

“Russia had more than a month to mint the medals.” So no needs to do it in advance, I agree. So why the 2nd date would be right, and not the first one? Makes no sense…

“My speculation is well known to you”,: Yes it is, and at least this one makes sense. All nations have contingency plan, we, the French, had plan in case of Red Army flooding in Germany… I am not adverse on this one which is a light and credible alternative of “Evil Putin planned it all” which was on the market before. It still doesn’t explain the medal story… The French didn’t had a Campaign Medal ready with the date when the Russian Offensive would start and when the victory against them would have been achieved…

“he said that medals were sure to be distributed but who received them will remain a secret for quite a time.” That is in the realm of possibilities, so Medals will be made and distributed, fine, but not yet. So no distribution of Medals to the troops, so no “secret” medals, so journalist lying (again). As said one of them: “do not allow Truth to stand against a good story”.

“Putin blamed it”: Nope, according to what I just read, Putin said “Ukraine bores responsibility” as the Ukrainian Government broke the Cease Fire (according to him again).
Unfortunately the propaganda machine in both side will go now go full speed ahead to exploit this tragedy, which changes nothing about the roots of the conflict.

“Now are there any doubts about Russia as a source of weapons for separatists” Yes, because according to Separatists sources (so I heard in BBC), the separatist sized the system when they took 1 airport (or base) from the Ukrainian Army.

“Can we now say that Russia is a state that supports terrorism?” You never stop to claim it, so you will carry on louder.