Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Fragony]

I'd be worried about just about everyone. Maffia-state. EU wants to give Ukraine 20 billion, Russia calls back ambassador. Rumours of Russian troops positioning.

Floating on the web [url]https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/t1/1891281_745452628798192_303332851_n.

Maffia replaces maffia.

[Myth]

Wow, this thread blew up in a few days! I heard that the army refused to shoot civilians, hence only police and BERKUT forces were applied. I'm not buying this, because if there's one thing the army is good at, is drilling it into your skull to follow orders. Military tribunals and such are no laughing matter, so I don't see a general sticking his neck out in denying this. I'd love to get more reliable info, but I can't, expect from some friends I have in Ukraine. Maybe I should ask them since I haven't in a while.

Regarding rebellions - we live in the information age. It is no longer necessary for civilians to outfight a professional army (and it is impossible if said army is at least moderately competent and equipped). It is only necessary for cameras to capture the blood flowing in the streets to get the UN to act. There's more than enough bored and rich countries who have nothing better to do than meddle in such affairs.

That Putin wants to march his troops down to Kiev is probably true, but I think he is shrewd enough not do something so blunt. Marching tanks over foreign capitals is so 20th century.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

guns and revolution?

America's current gun ownership is not capable of stopping a dictatorial overthrow by a dictator with the backing of the military (not that such is likely with our culture, it is not). Our right to "keep and bear arms" has been "infringed" enough to make that almost impossible to defend against. AR-15 v Apache gunship is tough odds for the rifleman. Either our second amendment rights are a function of our militia powers as a community -- in which case the community and not the individuals should be controlling the weapons -- or it is an individual right. Either way, I don't see anything in the second amdt that says or implies 'except for large clips weapons, fully automatic weapons, or crew served weapons which the government can restrict."

The real protection against the dictatorial overthrow is that the military would not support it en masse and many would side with the citizens -- thus evening the playing field a bit.

Ukraine is an interesting test cast for Europe and Western Asia -- just what will be the power and reach of Ursus Russicus?

[drone]

The real protection against the dictatorial overthrow is that the military would not support it en masse and many would side with the citizens -- thus evening the playing field a bit.

Plus the whole Posse Comitatus thing, which would make the whole operation illegal with federal troops (giving the generals an out if so ordered).

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Wow, this thread blew up in a few days! I heard that the army refused to shoot civilians, hence only police and BERKUT forces were applied. I'm not buying this, because if there's one thing the army is good at, is drilling it into your skull to follow orders. Military tribunals and such are no laughing matter, so I don't see a general sticking his neck out in denying this. I'd love to get more reliable info, but I can't, expect from some friends I have in Ukraine. Maybe I should ask them since I haven't in a while.

Regarding rebellions - we live in the information age. It is no longer necessary for civilians to outfight a professional army (and it is impossible if said army is at least moderately competent and equipped). It is only necessary for cameras to capture the blood flowing in the streets to get the UN to act. There's more than enough bored and rich countries who have nothing better to do than meddle in such affairs.

That Putin wants to march his troops down to Kiev is probably true, but I think he is shrewd enough not do something so blunt. Marching tanks over foreign capitals is so 20th century.

I think is is a generally sensible view - the key point being that Ukraine, while far from perfect, is a modern country with a functioning democracy, it's hard to invade such a place without people noticing or caring. Ukraine also borders NATO, which makes any Russian military move suspect.

[HoreTore]

I think is is a generally sensible view - the key point being that Ukraine, while far from perfect, is a modern country with a functioning democracy, it's hard to invade such a place without people noticing or caring. Ukraine also borders NATO, which makes any Russian military move suspect.

*cough* Georgia *cough*

[Seamus Fermanagh]

*cough* Georgia *cough*

What is your point. It is not as though Georgia had a NATO border....er.....uh......

[lars573]

*cough* Georgia *cough*

*cough*Economically unimportant to Europe at large, unlike Ukraine*cough*

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

*cough* Georgia *cough*

*Cough* Georgia shelled Russian Peacekeepers *cough*

Georgia also shares a border with Turkey, which is A: much harder to invade than modern Romania or Bulgaria and B: Not in the EU.

Ukraine also borders Poland, Slovakia and Hungary.

It is strategically important.

[Sarmatian]

*Cough* Georgia shelled Russian Peacekeepers *cough*

A fact often overlooked.

I don't see Russia intervening militarily. They didn't do it during the Orange revolution, I don't see why would they do it now. The only scenario in which Russian intervention is plausible is if the new regime in Kiev don't broker some kind of deal with eastern part of Ukraine and sends the army instead. That's highly unlikely because every politician there knows that eastern Ukraine pays the bills for the entire country. Also, the army would probably refuse to do that and even the best spin doctors wouldn't be able to spin that as a democratic course of action.

If the new regime manages to take control of the entire country peacefully, then it's really up to the west. Ukrainian economy is on the brink of collapse. West needs to send a rather big package. There are talks of 20 billions, but I doubt it. They will send few billions at best, most of which will go to corrupt politicians, and so, after a few years, disillusioned Ukrainians will vote in Party of Regions again.

The only other scenario, irrespective of this revolution, where I can see Russia considering military intervention is if Ukraine joins NATO, but that is also highly improbable.

[Myth]

Considering that the path for us was NATO first, EU later, I think this is a possible scenario. What CAN Russia do after the fact? They either have to come out guns blazing or learn to take a loss. Russia bordering NATO would either make them convert and give in or it will start WW3 and everybody loses.

[rvg]

Russia bordering NATO would either make them convert and give in or it will start WW3 and everybody loses.

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

[Fragony]

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

They are certainly considering the possibility. It isn't that a rare occasion that Russian bombers are intercepted by Danish and Dutch jets. Same with submarines. They are probably just testing reaction-time but that they consider a certain scenario just to be sure seems pretty obvious.

[Sarmatian]

They are certainly considering the possibility. It isn't that a rare occasion that Russian bombers are intercepted by Danish and Dutch jets.

It is a very rare occasion, because the bombers don't enter foreign airspace, whether they are Russian, American or someone else's, unless by a mistake. They just fly really close. When they get close to a sovereign airspace, that nations scramble fighters. It's routine.

[rvg]

It is a very rare occasion, because the bombers don't enter foreign airspace, whether they are Russian, American or someone else's, unless by a mistake. They just fly really close. When they get close to a sovereign airspace, that nations scramble fighters. It's routine.

Yeah, they have that entire etiquette down to a science. They know exactly what constitutes an act of war and stay clear of that if they know what's good for them. Otherwise as soon as they land it's a quick road to arrest > court martial > prison for being a f*ing idiot.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russia already is bordering NATO. What's the big deal?

True of course, but at such an inhospitable and militarily unworkable latitude that it has never been viewed as a real "threat zone."
"

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

If the new regime manages to take control of the entire country peacefully, then it's really up to the west. Ukrainian economy is on the brink of collapse. West needs to send a rather big package. There are talks of 20 billions, but I doubt it. They will send few billions at best, most of which will go to corrupt politicians, and so, after a few years, disillusioned Ukrainians will vote in Party of Regions again.

the EU needs to send 2bn to cover the money Russia might not send. That should tide the country over until after elections, at which point the EU will sign the association agreement and AID will start to seriously flow.

As Myth will doubtless tell you, you can live with corrupt politicians taking backhanders, the problem starts when those politicians start changing the Constitution and rigging elections.

Like I said, this is the rerun of the Orange Revolution, what we're seeing here is less a new "Revolution" and more the working out of a political crisis that has been coming to a head for five years or so.

[HopAlongBunny]

There seems to be a danger of devolution into an east/west conflict. If it becomes a shooting conflict, Vlad would be happy to aid in restoring order and (just as a charitable side beni) protecting present/former Russian nationals.
Eggshells? Not quite yet, but this is one Russia wants to win

[Kagemusha]

To me the situation seems more positive then during weekend. While it is somewhat strange where Janukovits has disappeared. I cant see any real indications for escalating violence as of now. While the situation can change rapidly. I truly and sincerely hope that the Ukrainians can settle this issue by political means, while no doubt some dirtbag is going to take the reigns. I really do hope both West and East Ukrainians can reach an consensus which one it should be.

[Sarmatian]

the EU needs to send 2bn to cover the money Russia might not send. That should tide the country over until after elections, at which point the EU will sign the association agreement and AID will start to seriously flow.

As Myth will doubtless tell you, you can live with corrupt politicians taking backhanders, the problem starts when those politicians start changing the Constitution and rigging elections.

Like I said, this is the rerun of the Orange Revolution, what we're seeing here is less a new "Revolution" and more the working out of a political crisis that has been coming to a head for five years or so.

2 billion isn't enough to cover holes in the budget, let alone stop economy from deteriorating, especially after this. 15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

Interesting how you see this as a continuation of the Orange Revolution. During that time, pro western parties, again in Kiev, installed Yushchenko, curbed the power of the parliament and increased president's authority. The popularity of Yushchenko dropped considerably due to his inability to do anything and rampant corruption. They tried with Timoshenko then with similar results. Now they've had another revolution to increase the power of the parliament at the expense of president. Very weird, cyclical revolution. Go back to where you started, do not pass go, do not collect 15 bn dollars.

Timoshenko's now enjoying increased popularity because she's seen as the martyr and that erased off most bad memories, but as soon as the enthusiasm ends, failing economy and her own corruption will take it's toll and she's gonna lose. What's gonna happen after another politician tries to change the course, I wonder... Another Kiev-centered revolution to increase the power of the president and diminish influence of the parliament, possibly.

[Myth]

A big land border like the one between Ukraine and Russia is a different story. Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border. That would make the Russians paranoid. Not to mention an extension of the missile shield or whatever it was called over basically most of the relevant missile launch sites that we know of.

I hear talk that the Russian communist party is stirring memories of Chernobyl and asking for EU and Russian military intervention to "help secure the 5 NPPs on Ukrainian soil due to the collapse of executive authority". I hope Putin doesn't buy into this bull. The first guys who would be interested in NOT losing any of the 5 NPPs are Rosatom, who are the ones who helped build them and are supplying them with "fresh" fuel. Too much money to be had. But marching the tanks over to the NPPs sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[rvg]

Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border.

NATO has an airbase in Estonia.

[HoreTore]

NATO has an airbase in Estonia.

NATO has several bases on Russia's borders. Kinda natural since several NATO members border Russia...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

2 billion isn't enough to cover holes in the budget, let alone stop economy from deteriorating, especially after this. 15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

2bn is the aize of the next Russian payment - the EU/IMF has to cover that between now and May 25, after May more aid will be forthcoming.

Interesting how you see this as a continuation of the Orange Revolution. During that time, pro western parties, again in Kiev, installed Yushchenko, curbed the power of the parliament and increased president's authority. The popularity of Yushchenko dropped considerably due to his inability to do anything and rampant corruption. They tried with Timoshenko then with similar results. Now they've had another revolution to increase the power of the parliament at the expense of president. Very weird, cyclical revolution. Go back to where you started, do not pass go, do not collect 15 bn dollars.

The Orange Revolution saw a curb on Presidential Power which last until 2010 - when the now-ex President reverted to the 1996 Constitution.

So it's not cyclical - Russia been doctoring your news again, or something?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ukraine

[Sarmatian]

2bn is the aize of the next Russian payment - the EU/IMF has to cover that between now and May 25, after May more aid will be forthcoming.

Ok. We will see how much will come all together.

The Orange Revolution saw a curb on Presidential Power which last until 2010 - when the now-ex President reverted to the 1996 Constitution.

So it's not cyclical - Russia been doctoring your news again, or something?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ukraine

I didn't know that, although it says it was the constitutional court.

And, naturally, Russia's been doctoring my news all the time. Anyone not thinking west is the greatezt, automatically must be under influence of doctored news, geez

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A big land border like the one between Ukraine and Russia is a different story. Imagine US airbases sprinkled 100 km. from the border. That would make the Russians paranoid. Not to mention an extension of the missile shield or whatever it was called over basically most of the relevant missile launch sites that we know of....

Nothing and nobody in NATO can make the Russians paranoid. They arrived at that state a LOOOOOOONG time ago.

[HoreTore]

Nothing and nobody in NATO can make the Russians paranoid. They arrived at that state a LOOOOOOONG time ago.

That can surely be said of the west as well, eh?

[Fragony]

15 billion Russian deal wasn't enough probably.

Didn't know about such an offer, the EU wants to give 20. What the hell is really going on here.

[rvg]

That can surely be said of the west as well, eh?

The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ok. We will see how much will come all together.

Bear in mind, a trade deal was on the table before the former president backed down.

I didn't know that, although it says it was the constitutional court.

Under a new president, who we now know was building himself palaces - and you wonder why the PARLIAMENT voted to impeach him?

And, naturally, Russia's been doctoring my news all the time. Anyone not thinking west is the greatezt, automatically must be under influence of doctored news, geez

I didn't say the West was the greatest - but the news here has been over the issue of the undoing of the 2004 Constitution (6 years after the Court handwaved it), in fact it was on the news in 2010 when it happened.

So there's something wrong at your end with what they're telling you.

The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

That's not true, about Russia at least. Putin believes, accurately, that the Western Bloc is opposed to Russia gaining international influence.

Cold War never really ended - it just went quiet.