Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

Like it was ever in doubt. There hasn't been a single secession referendum in the modern history of the world where the population in question decided against secession. Scottish may be the first one actually, if they decide to stay in the UK.

What about the one in Quebec?
Well, should have read the thread to the end.

[Sarmatian]

Crimea has its own constitution, according to which Crimea HAS THREE OFFICIAL LANGUAGES: Ukrainian, Russian, Crimean Tatar. They are planning to remove Ukrainian - a very anti-Nazi move.

Hmm, I've read about two, Ukrainian and Russian. I haven't seen Tatar mentioned anywhere officially.

[drone]

Why wait? I'll tell you now: No sanctions worth talking about, but a few paltry sanctions not worth talking about that everyone will talk about.

Maybe the FA can seize Chelski.

[Kagemusha]

EU applies sanctions towards 21 individual Russians and Ukrainians, while US towards 11 individual Russian and Ukrainians, because of the application of Crimea to join Russia. Oh how the Russian bear must be trembling now..

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140317

[rvg]

Let's see if more follows. This is just a beginning both in terms of sanctions and in terms of the crisis escalation. There are still Ukrainian army units in Crimea, and they aren't going anywhere.

[Kagemusha]

Let's see if more follows. This is just a beginning both in terms of sanctions and in terms of the crisis escalation. There are still Ukrainian army units in Crimea, and they aren't going anywhere.

Completely possible, but my guess is that once Russia ratifies the Crimean application, Ukrainian troops either submit or Russians allow those who do not wish to join Russians to leave with all their insignia and weapons. I guess we will have to wait and see.
Meanwhile Maidan goverment announced mobilization of 40K reservist, while they already declared a full mobilization of all reserves couple weeks a go. Didnt anybody show up the last time?

[Sir Moody]

Speak for yourself.

Most Brits I know, when asked about handing Argentina the Falklands respond with "over our dead bodies".

Part of the reason these territories want to remain British is because we give a fig for them.

I am of a different opinion myself - as far as i am concerned they can remain British as long as they wish to remain British - if they have a referendum (and i mean a proper one not the farce the Russians pulled) and decide they want to become either Independent or Argentinian then I am all for them leaving - so far all indications are that wont happen any time soon

[Sarmatian]

Completely possible, but my guess is that once Russia ratifies the Crimean application, Ukrainian troops either submit or Russians allow those who do not wish to join Russians to leave with all their insignia and weapons. I guess we will have to wait and see.
Meanwhile Maidan goverment announced mobilization of 40K reservist, while they already declared a full mobilization of all reserves couple weeks a go. Didnt anybody show up the last time?

I think I read somewhere only 1.5% reported for duty.

[HoreTore]

It's quite easy to get a referendum to say what you want when you've got armed thugs driving around killing the opposition.


Yeah, the interrim government are the real fascists./sarcasm

[Kagemusha]

It's quite easy to get a referendum to say what you want when you've got armed thugs driving around killing the opposition.


Yeah, the interrim government are the real fascists./sarcasm

And who said there was good or bad guys in this crisis?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Those who do not read history are doomed to repeat it.

This is the 21st Century, not the 19th.

Putin's language of £protecting ethnic Russians" is the reason given by Hitler for invading Czechoslovakia - he took the German bit first, then the rest.

Putin has troops in Crimea, NATO should be preparing to move troops into Western Ukraine - Ukraine's first president has already said Ukraine should join NATO ASAP, and once Crimea is annexed many more Ukrainians will feel that way. Georgia, likewise, will be looking nervously East.

Time to recognise history hasn't ended and to arm up. NATO doctrine should move to holding a Baltic-Romanian line, and matching Russia's land warfare capability.

War with Putin seems merely now to be a matter of time. I for one am going to start exercising more for the inevitable draft.

I noted above that this was the Sudetanland with more stonefacing and less hysterical ranting. Neither Europe nor the USA is willing to bleed to stop this so just shut up and deal with it when Putin and company redraw the border.

International relations come down to "Put up, or shut up" far more often then our diplodunks would care to admit.

[Brenus]

"Yeah, the interrim government are the real fascists." Of course not. They are freedom fighters who never ever assault opposition, throw Cocktail Molotov or stormed official buildings. Their celebration of SS and their racist, anti-Semitic rant and calls for murders are just part of a nice and lovely folklore. Can't wait the Report of Human Right Watch showing how nice they are... Under the Swastika is a golden heart.

"I for one am going to start exercising more for the inevitable draft." All benefit anyway, as even if no draft (most likely), you will in better shape after.

[GenosseGeneral]

I think I read somewhere only 1.5% reported for duty.

I read that they had thousands of volunteers who wanted to enlist. But from what I know, they first put these people on lists and did not directly put them into army uniforms. Given the low state of readiness and ill-funding the Ukrainian armed forces have suffered from over the last 25 years, I guess they are structurally not prepared for mobilisation. Honestly, who would have expected a mobilisation of the Ukrainian army 6 months ago?
There is also a lot of information, indicating the relocation of army units to the Russian border. Most garrisons are still in the West, since they were established in Soviet times.
Here is a number of vids. Note the first two: They show locals of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions attempting to block the movement of armor.
Also note the absolutely poor condition of the soldiers' equipment. Looks at least as bad the Russians in Chechnya in the 1990s. Compare that to the Russians in Crimea... although the equipment of those hinted towards spetznas as well as marines or maybe airborne troops, since especially the latter are highly prestigious elites and have received even more prioritised funding over the last years.
The same for the armored vehicles shown. Looks even more like 60s and 70s material than like 80s. I am not an expert on Soviet tanks, though, but I know that Ukraine has only marginally modernised its military over the last decades, despite the existence of a fairly developed arms industry.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I am not an expert on Soviet tanks...

I am clearly not an expert either. I can handle the MS-1 pretty well, but the KV-1s still keep stomping my Hetzer flat despite switching to the 105. Stacks up better against the Churchills though.

[Myth]

I am clearly not an expert either. I can handle the MS-1 pretty well, but the KV-1s still keep stomping my Hetzer flat despite switching to the 105. Stacks up better against the Churchills though.

Which game are we discussing here?

[rvg]

Soooo, looks like Obama has given his so-called "response". Quite honestly he would have been better off proclaiming nothing at all. These "sanctions" are a joke. Now, if I were an optimist I'd say that he's just starting and needs time to prepare a coherent and stinging package of response measures, but given the fact that the man has no spine I have no reason to feel optimistic.
Sorry Ukraine, my heart aches for you. Let's just hope that Putin either does nothing further on this front or does something monumentally stupid. I'm rooting for the "nothing further" route, but once again no reason to feel optimistic.

[Husar]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Ground_Forces

Wikipedia has a list, not very detailed though regarding the versions they have. Since their T-64s and T-80 have a different ERA layout, I would assume the tanks in the videos are mosty T-72s, which would mean they have taken some tanks out of storage.

What's weird is that the tanks in the first video look like the BMD-2 (especially the slight chevron-shape of the front armor), although that one has 5 road wheels while the ones in the video have 6, which is the number the BMPs have. BMPs have a flat front though. I have no idea what they are, maybe BMDs with a BMP chassis or whatever....okay, got it, has to be some kind of BTR-D, it has 6 roadwheels and is a stretched BMD, not liked on Wikipedia though. I also can't find anything about a variant with a turret.

Maybe they should have kept these: http://ftr.wot-news.com/2014/03/05/t...rd-in-ukraine/

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Which game are we discussing here?

Just a bit of a joking reference to World of Tanks.

[GenosseGeneral]

Maybe they should have kept these: http://ftr.wot-news.com/2014/03/05/t...rd-in-ukraine/

Guess how many of those the Russians have... Ukraine does not stand that much of a chance in an all-out-war against Russia. But I think it is unlikely, as long as things in Eastern Ukraine don't become too bad. It makes sense for them to move troops there, though. Better the Russians would have at least to fight to take that area. And that is something so unpopular, I doubt Putin would risk it.

The ministry of defence of Ukraine lists BMP1-3 as well as the BMD2. MBTs are mainly upgraded T64s and some T72s. They produce also a further developed T80, sold as T84 "Oplot". Their army has bought about 10 but failed to pay for the contract. I read that 97% of the production of Ukraine's arms industry are exported. i don't have numbers to compare it to, but that sounds fairly high to me.

Fun fact: A Russian friend of mine has just told me, that the government has made cuts on the scholarship she as a student receives. As a reason she states Crimea. I wonder, I thought Putins coffers were full gas money, so helping out some soon-to-be independent Russian brothers with 5 or 10 billion USD should'nt be too much of a problem?

[CBR]

Soooo, looks like Obama has given his so-called "response". Quite honestly he would have been better off proclaiming nothing at all. These "sanctions" are a joke. Now, if I were an optimist I'd say that he's just starting and needs time to prepare a coherent and stinging package of response measures, but given the fact that the man has no spine I have no reason to feel optimistic.

The US/EU approach has been pretty good so far with lots of face saving diplomacy. Unfortunately it appears that Putin is following Hitler's play book and the West need to stand united and deliver stronger sanctions very soon. That or we are looking at another Munich agreement.

[HopAlongBunny]

It is very unlikely that Russia is going to give up on the Crimea.
The West (ie: NATO) would love to have Sevastopol as a base on the Black Sea; what are we willing to pay for it in blood and treasure? Not much I'm willing to bet.

[rvg]

It is very unlikely that Russia is going to give up on the Crimea.
The West (ie: NATO) would love to have Sevastopol as a base on the Black Sea; what are we willing to pay for it in blood and treasure? Not much I'm willing to bet.

Crimea is not a problem if there was a guarantee that Putin wouldn't go further. By all accounts it looks like he's not about to stop.

[Strike For The South]

Worthless Fascist, deserves nothing more than his head on a pike.

The yoke of tyranny and subjugation comes forth to delirious applause and nods of tacit approval.

The man moves his flesh and steel in, to nary a peep from vanguard of liberal democracy.

I weep for the next generation of Ukranian innocents, who will be under the amoral Russian boot

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Worthless Fascist, deserves nothing more than his head on a pike.

The yoke of tyranny and subjugation comes forth to delirious applause and nods of tacit approval.

The man moves his flesh and steel in to nary a peep from vanguard of liberal democracy.

I weep for the next generation of Ukranian innocents who will be under the amoral Russian boot

Nary a peep? There has been a veritable litany of denunciation, whole angry legions of words.


As to the locals wanting it, there is no dearth of examples of the Russian people (Muscovite if you prefer) seeking the security of a strongman leader.


It is simply countered. Ultimatum, war, 10s of thousands of casualties on both sides, occupation of a Crimea festering with insurgency for a couple of decades. Putin knows this and looking at the leaders who oppose this acquisition, thinks they're gonna blink. So do I.

[Brenus]

“As a reason she states Crimea” Very convincing. Do you thing that Cameron in UK did all the cuts in preparation of the Crimean Crisis? When will be the next charge of the Light Brigade, and perhaps we will finally get out of the legend of the Thin Red Line?

[Myth]

Let's all agree that we don't want war to erupt. From that point of view, what other means are there to halt a supposed annexation of eastern Ukraine? Furthermore, why should anyone try to stop it if they themselves want to be a part of Russia? Or independent? I mean, didn't the USA bomb Serbia to get Kosovo the right to cessate?

[Sarmatian]

Let's all agree that we don't want war to erupt. From that point of view, what other means are there to halt a supposed annexation of eastern Ukraine? Furthermore, why should anyone try to stop it if they themselves want to be a part of Russia? Or independent? I mean, didn't the USA bomb Serbia to get Kosovo the right to cessate?

Basically, the US and Russia are two hypocrites screaming "Hypocrite!!!" at each other. US just has a few more hypocrites on its side so they can scream "hypocrite" a little louder.

[rvg]

Basically, the US and Russia are two hypocrites screaming "Hypocrite!!!" at each other. US just has a few more hypocrites on its side so they can scream "hypocrite" a little louder.

Hey, at least you're recognizing Russia as a hypocrite. We're making some real progress here!

[Sarmatian]

Hey, at least you're recognizing Russia as a hypocrite. We're making some real progress here!

Que? When did I not?

I just argued how idiotic and hypocritical it was for the US (and most of the "west" in general) to act all high and mighty, cry foul, cite international law when they've done similar or worse things many times in the past, and as recently as several years ago.

It was a case of pot calling the kettle black from the beginning.

[rvg]

Que? When did I not?

When did you? Until now.