I think that ends up yielding Option #1 by a different route, but you may very well be correct.Option #3: Iraq becomes an open war between ISIS, other Sectarian militias, non-sectarian militias, and the Maliki government, which would be forced into desperate and unsavory measures reminiscent of the not-even-done-yet war in Syria. Basically, I think Iraq and Syria will be the same war shortly (if they aren't already), and Maliki will be forced to take aid from Iran in the same way that Assad has. Maliki is not Assad, but he is a strong-man who doesn't want to let go of power, and he has the potential to be an Assad. I don't think there will be anything particularly short about the situation brewing in Iraq, though I hope the West stays out of it this time. It is abundantly clear that by meddling in the middle-east, we just make things worse.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
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