ISIS on the offensive in Iraq

[ICantSpellDawg]

Might be bad, Turkey admitted they shot down a Russian jet, but it wasn't flying over Turkish territory. Putin is probably not able to sell a diplomatic solution back home, he would look weak. Bad idea in Russia

Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State

[Fragony]

Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State

You are probably right, so far only some economic sanctions, not retaliations on the rotaliations on the Turkoman rebels who killed the pilot. Would still be good if Turkey apoligizes though.

[Husar]

Putin has the benefit of not needing to respond to a public. That makes his actions more predictable in some ways, less so in others- which is good and bad for him.

I doubt that Russia could take Turkey in any offensive war, notwithstanding their 4x higher military expenditure, and notwithstanding any NATO support. Turkey is economically self-contained and has a modernized military. The amount of money it would cost to do significant damage would bankrupt the Russian State

A year or two ago some predicted he would be marching on Berlin by now, now he can't even take on Turkey.
Politics are confusing.

[Sarmatian]

A year or two ago some predicted he would be marching on Berlin by now, now he can't even take on Turkey.
Politics are confusing.

Turkey has a rather large and modern military. In a conventional total war, Turkey would stand no chance (even with nukes taken out of the equation), but Russia couldn't take on Turkey painlessly, they would suffer serious casualties, and the funds needed would be quite significant indeed.

[Husar]

Turkey has a rather large and modern military. In a conventional total war, Turkey would stand no chance (even with nukes taken out of the equation), but Russia couldn't take on Turkey painlessly, they would suffer serious casualties, and the funds needed would be quite significant indeed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...orces#Vehicles

You mean all those modern Patton tanks would stop them for long?
Of course they would suffer serious casualties, even the Pattons are not a complete pushover, but I was comparing this to an evasion of the EU, so...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...orces#Vehicles

You mean all those modern Patton tanks would stop them for long?
Of course they would suffer serious casualties, even the Pattons are not a complete pushover, but I was comparing this to an evasion of the EU, so...

No, he means the 750 Leopard I and II tanks.

Turkey has more Leopard II tanks than Germany.

Also, unlike the Germans, the Turks mean business and any Russian invasion would be made to suffer as much as possible - no punches would be pulled.

[Husar]

No, he means the 750 Leopard I and II tanks.

Turkey has more Leopard II tanks than Germany.

Also, unlike the Germans, the Turks mean business and any Russian invasion would be made to suffer as much as possible - no punches would be pulled.

That's ridiculous....

How is the Leopard 1 modern? Their Leopard 2 are only like 30 or 40 more than Germany has and the A4 standard is not entirely new either, the A5 was introduced in the early 90s...
Not to forget that Germany would not be the only country they'd have to face when invading Europe.
Even if I take your comment about the Germans not meaning business seriously, the glorious British would obviously bravely send their superior tanks and singlehandedly beat back the evil red flood, so there, invading Turkey is much easier...

[ICantSpellDawg]

Turkey has the second largest standing army in NATO.

Remember, the US couldn't defeat Vietnam.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

That's ridiculous....

How is the Leopard 1 modern? Their Leopard 2 are only like 30 or 40 more than Germany has and the A4 standard is not entirely new either, the A5 was introduced in the early 90s...
Not to forget that Germany would not be the only country they'd have to face when invading Europe.
Even if I take your comment about the Germans not meaning business seriously, the glorious British would obviously bravely send their superior tanks and singlehandedly beat back the evil red flood, so there, invading Turkey is much easier...

Sorry Husar - our army is in a pretty bad way too, our armour has been even more ground down that yours.

If you need to stop the Red Flood may I suggest the Greeks?

I'm sure they're only too happy to help fellow Europeans.

Back when you were serious about defending the Fulda Gap you had over two thousand tanks - now you have a tenth of that.

Turkey has a massive tank force, yes they have many older tanks but the spearhead are the Leopard II and Leopard I tanks in that order. Russia doesn't have a huge number of modern tanks either, remember, the majority of their tanks are still T-80s.

Add to that the fact that Anatolia is one of the worst places to invade in the world and you rapidly conclude it's not worth it for the Russians, it would require a general mobalisation and I don't think Russia can afford that financially or domestically.

[Kralizec]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern...orces#Vehicles

You mean all those modern Patton tanks would stop them for long?
Of course they would suffer serious casualties, even the Pattons are not a complete pushover, but I was comparing this to an evasion of the EU, so...

The bulk of Russia's armory consists of T-72 and T-80 tanks. Granted those are modernized and are not as crappy as some would believe, but the Patton tanks still used by Turkey and others have also been heavily pimped.

In a dick measuring contest between Turkey and Russia the latter would obviously win, but Putin isn't stupid and he's not going to attack a NATO country in retaliation for a single jet fighter. Even if Turkey wasn't a NATO member it would not be worth it. Things will stay flaccid.

Allthough if Turkey weren't a NATO member and got into a fight with Russia, I would not root for either of them. Both countries are run by complete scumbags. Most NATO countries dissaprove when al-Assad kills civilians, but Erdogan is bothered because most of those happen to be Sunni muslims, and more than a few Turkic.

I don't even understand anymore why the "Assad question" is discussed at all, or why people such as Hollande are so determined to get rid of him. I can understand the argument that a peace settlement with al-Assad remaining isn't workable because more than half of the country hates him, but at the same time it's clear that the Syrian state isn't going to collapse any time soon. Even now the Syrian state is still the biggest player in that quagmire and any sort of peace settlement will need its support. And by that I mean the support of the military and the bureaucracy, which is held together mostly by its loyalty to al-Assad and his family.

[Montmorency]

In a dick measuring contest between Turkey and Russia the latter would obviously win

Those of you who believe this seem to be looking at raw counts of available materiel and troops, which is rather stupid; for example, it suggests that the United States would have a good shot at conquering Russia.

War is not like a game of RISK, in which 8 chits against 5 chits by definition results in total victory for the former. Militaries have to cover actual ground to get to their enemy and their enemy's strategic places, unless you figure that wars are about to be fought entirely by Space Marines coming down on in drop-pods.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

There's the question of quality of personnel, too.

[Kralizec]

Those of you who believe this seem to be looking at raw counts of available materiel and troops, which is rather stupid; for example, it suggests that the United States would have a good shot at conquering Russia.

War is not like a game of RISK, in which 8 chits against 5 chits by definition results in total victory for the former. Militaries have to cover actual ground to get to their enemy and their enemy's strategic places, unless you figure that wars are about to be fought entirely by Space Marines coming down on in drop-pods.

All true, an invasion/occupation wouldn't work. I didn't mean to imply so, but I guess my bit about tanks gave that impression.

What it boils down to: if the gloves where off, could Russia deter Turkey from interfering in Syria again and tolerate the occasional violation of its airspace? Assuming that NATO wouldn't intervene, yes they could.

Russia would simply pull their reserve aircraft out of storage and move them into position to attack Turkey. No need for land forces to cross any uninvolved countries. The quality of Russia's navy in the Black sea doesn't matter that much, either. Realisticly Russia doesn't want to resort to this, but Turkey wants it even less, because it couldn't fight them off.

EDIT: I don't think hypothetical dick contests are important though, because it's not going to happen anyway. You should all be glorifying the exalted ruler Assad and debate wether he should rule for 40 more years. Or not.

[Husar]

Those of you who believe this seem to be looking at raw counts of available materiel and troops, which is rather stupid; for example, it suggests that the United States would have a good shot at conquering Russia.

War is not like a game of RISK, in which 8 chits against 5 chits by definition results in total victory for the former. Militaries have to cover actual ground to get to their enemy and their enemy's strategic places, unless you figure that wars are about to be fought entirely by Space Marines coming down on in drop-pods.

Drop pods? Ekranoplans!



Why attack over land if you have a sea-capable craft that can go >500km/h, can transport 1000 troops or several tanks and other vehicles/cargo and is invisible to radar? So no, they do not have to cover ground, they can also cover sea and air.
(that they don't really have any operational ones is beside the point, mind you!!!)

Or why don't you just land in Antalya like this?



You know I've been told by a lot of people, that you can achieve everything as long as you want it enough!
Your communist defeatism cannot infect me.

[drone]

unless you figure that wars are about to be fought entirely by Space Marines coming down on in drop-pods.

It would be the Turks doing the drops, the Emperor is from Anatolia after all...

[Montmorency]

Turkey stands no chance in what sense? Of not losing the war? That obviously depends on what the political goals are for the participants. Of not being conquered? Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.

[Husar]

Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.

Or Luxembourg and Monaco, much easier.

[Myth]

Turkey stands no chance in what sense? Of not losing the war? That obviously depends on what the political goals are for the participants. Of not being conquered? Russia would find it easier to conquer Finland and Scandinavia than to conquer Turkey.

Conquering Finland might not be that hard now that they could attempt it with combined arms rather than just millions of poorly trained and ill equipped foot soldiers conscripted from the rural areas. Running these poor sods at the Mannertheim line with the NKVD behind their backs was comrade Stalin's way to do it. It's like whipping a bunch of kindergarteners untill they can pull a truck up a hill. Enough kindergarteners and enough whipping and it can probably happen.

Now though that land connection to Finland and the improved infrastructure on it would mean that Russia will have an easy time to provide logistics for its tanks, artillery, airforce and so on. Oh, and modern day missile cruisers will cause heaps of trouble for the finns as well.

In the case of a 1v1 war between Russia and Turkey where nukes are banned I don't see how anyone can favour Turkey. The Russians can have a safe route through Georgia (Russian-Georgian relations are pretty warm) and just roll over Turkey. Alternatively they can gather their fleet and choke Istanbul out. It will be harder to land troops through the Black Sea or to get permission to pass through Romania and Bulgaria. But it's possible.

[Gilrandir]

The Russians can have a safe route through Georgia (Russian-Georgian relations are pretty warm) and just roll over Turkey.

I think you are misinterpreting the character of relations between Georgia and Russia. After 2008 war and losing its territories Georgia will never allow any passage of the Russian military in spite of the fact that the new president is pre-disposed towards Russia. He would face popular dissatisfaction (to put it mildly). Besides, for a massive land operation Russia will need quite a time for passing through Georgia and, most importantly, KEEPING THAT ROAD OPEN for even longer time what with the purpose of bringing in reinforcements and withdrawing the wounded and suppying the fielded armies. The longer the road through Georgia is open, the greater is the likelihood of popular discontent (even if the Georgian president is lenient) and still greater is the likelihood that Turkey would try to stop that corridor by using its aiforce, which Georgia (both in the meaning "the people" and "the authorities") would not relish. So land operation via Georgia is out of question for Russia.

Alternatively they can gather their fleet and choke Istanbul out.

Those rusty tubs? I would advise you to find a video from the Russian fleet military parade in Sevastopol this year. You will see how effective that navy is.

Besides, I guess that Turkey has its own fleet (and a more modern one) in the Black Sea which will offer its resistance. And don't forget the NATO support in case Turkey is openly attacked.

It will be harder to land troops through the Black Sea

Landing troops will mean introducing isolated detachments which will be forced to act without the hope of reinforcements or supplies in the hostile environment. Any Turkish territory is not Donbas or the Crimea,so it will be sheer waste of manpower. Not that Putin would mind it much, though.