POTUS Election thread

**Hooahguy** · 05-30-2015, 19:31

Because winning the GOP primaries is what really counts, amirite?

**a completely inoffensive name** · 05-30-2015, 22:16

Originally Posted by Hooahguy

Because winning the GOP primaries is what really counts, amirite?

Yes

**Montmorency** · 05-31-2015, 00:14

It's more complicated than that. With the various weird reforms the Republicans have been playing with in anticipation of 2016 primaries and delegate allocation, primaries held between mid-March and the end of April will be the impactful ones. After that, the conclusion will almost certainly be foregone. Before that, many if not most delegates will be proportionally allocated (according to candidates' performance in each primary).

What this means is that the influence of Texas and California will be reduced - March 1 primary and June 7 primary, respectively - while the influence of New York - undetermined primary date - may be increased.

Altogether, a successful Republican contender need not "win" any primaries until the Illinois, Florida, and Missouri conventions on March 15.

Also, recall that there is a technical out to the whole process. There are to be 2470 Republican delegates to the national convention. Of them, taking 1235 will clinch the nomination. However, if the contest is very mixed such that no one contender can reach the 50% mark, but there is one contender who has a plurality by the end of the primary season, then it is easily possible that this contender would, if deemed a risk by the party leadership, be thrown under the bus for someone else.

How could this happen? Well, don't forget the super/bonus delegates. There are more than 400 of them for the Republicans this time. If Rick Santorum gets 1000 delegates but Pataki gets 900, then we should expect Santorum to get cooked at the Convention.

**a completely inoffensive name** · 06-02-2015, 00:14

Technically it's 1236 to win. 50% + 1 vote (otherwise there could theoretically be a tie between two people who get 50%).

**Hooahguy** · 07-24-2015, 03:10

So Trump is threatening a third party run. This might be 1992 all over again!

**drone** · 07-24-2015, 04:53

Originally Posted by Hooahguy

So Trump is threatening a third party run. This might be 1992 all over again!

If he is still going by Nov 2016 (either as the nominee or 3rd party), he is going to crush whatever slim chance the GOP has of getting in the White House. Hillary must be loving it.

**Papewaio** · 07-24-2015, 10:14

I thought the simplest selection method of a party candidate for POTUS would be the one that mimics the actual election the closest. Not only would it be simpler you would have a candidate who is supported by your voter base across the country not just some states.

Oh look we won Idaho by a landslide and lost every other state. But at least we have a convulted selection process.