Brexit Thread

[AntiDamascus]

That's not wrong but not correct either. UK's not quite there yet, as art. 50 hasn't been invoked yet. Only when there's an official declaration stating the wish to leave the EU by UK's govt., it becomes a multilateral issue.
Until then, it's strictly internal matter. Formally, we're dealing with a non-binding referendum. In theory the govt. could simply not give a fuck about it (disregarding the political consequences of such an action for the sake of argument).

I'm not leaving anyone btw. Not a UK citizen. I just think this matter should be handled more even-handedly.

You can't honestly expect the nations in the EU to sit on their hands and wait for the special words from the UK about it. Stuff happens after an election in the US but before swearing in because they don't wait until that moment to do stuff. It would be a mess. These nations aren't going to sit there and wait. Even if they change their mind (which I doubt unless it goes way way worse), the UK is going to deal with issues coming back in. You can't announce you're leaving, change your mind and then assume everything will be fine again.

You can't quit your job but not give an exact end date and then get upset when they start replacing you or cutting your access.

[I of the Storm]

You can't honestly expect the nations in the EU to sit on their hands and wait for the special words from the UK about it. Stuff happens after an election in the US but before swearing in because they don't wait until that moment to do stuff. It would be a mess. These nations aren't going to sit there and wait. Even if they change their mind (which I doubt unless it goes way way worse), the UK is going to deal with issues coming back in. You can't announce you're leaving, change your mind and then assume everything will be fine again.

You can't quit your job but not give an exact end date and then get upset when they start replacing you or cutting your access.

I'm quite sure that's not the point I made. I don't expect the EU to do nothing. I do expect them to prepare for all the consequences the brexit may bring. And there are several faits accomplis already. The burned money, UK universities barred from upcoming calls in Horizon2020 etc...
That's not what I was talking about.
What I object to is the "hurry up! Not gone yet!?" rhetoric of some (of the more objectionable) officials in the EU. It hasn't even been a week yet, ffs! If the UK doesn't get it's shit sorted by October, it's still early enough to get upset with them.

But preferring calm and common sense is apparently not en vogue these days anywhere.

[AntiDamascus]

I guess I don't see the issue then. They voted to leave. It's time to start moving. They've just told the EU they don't want to be a part of their group but oh by the way they still want all the trade deals and such. I don't think it's too off for those left behind, and questioning their own fate to say "fine, go"

Is there a strict timetable that says they can't leave yet or are they just taking their time? "We don't like you, we're leaving.... sometime in like October starting it maybe." I guess I just get why some people aren't keen on letting the UK decide when they want to ruin everyone's day. Looking at the campaigns on both sides, calm and common sense left a while ago. If the UK is going to screw these countries, I don't see why they should simply grin and take it out of some weird desire for everyone to appear calm.

[Husar]

What do you plan to do to all the Londoners who voted to leave?

I know, you could have a good old socialist purge and 're-educate' them. In camps of course. After all, it's for their own good.

You know it makes sense.

What will you do to the 48% who voted Remain?

I know, you could have some good old nationalist concentration camps or scare them into submission. After all, it's for the good of the nation.

You know it makes perfect sense.

[johnhughthom]

No way that video is real

Edit: from a few pages back....

[Greyblades]

Not exactly narrowing it down there.

These are vague plans in search of a leader to get them done. I'm reminded of like on tv or movies little rich kids yelling at butlers that they want a pony and if they don't get one their daddy will get a butler who does. And those kids are viewed, quite rightly, as spoiled brats.
If it was as easy as it seems, we'd all just vote in guys to solve our problems. Billions and billions in money, dozens of countries. Treaties and status and upset leaders concerned with their own countries issues. "We voted for it, get it done"

You're new to this whole representative democracy thing arent you?

You do know that a vote on a single issue is an anomaly, yes? See we usually vote in these people called MPs. that's members of parliament, and we vote them in, from of a group of usually 6, based on which of them can persuade us that thier plan is the best. We send them off to a parliament of these MPs from around the country and expect them to follow those plans when this parliament votes on the issues of governance. This is usually done with the understanding that if they dont follow through on thier promise they get voted out.

We voted on this singular issue and we expect them to follow that vote but I am afraid we still expect them to do thier job without handholding, same as always.

I assume you come from one of the countries without democracies, or that you have never voted, otherwise It would be my sad duty to inform you that your categorization of spoiled brat includes yourself.

It's almost comical. "We vote for all the awesome stuff and none of the bad stuff. Done. That was easy. Don't know why anyone didn't do that before. We're smart."

I wonder, if they had voted the other way and the EU collapsed would you be saying the same thing?

[HopAlongBunny]

The UK hasn't told the EU anything (as yet)
A non-binding referendum in a member state obliges the EU in no way
The UK might try to use the weak results as leverage...that might not turn out well.

A little something on the politics of fear:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...over-evidence/

[Pannonian]

The UK's credit rating is plummeting. Which means we can't borrow on the scale that we've been doing before. Which means spending cuts or higher taxes. Wasn't one of the gripes, listed on the Brexit campaign bus, that we were giving more to the EU than we were getting back, to the tune of 8bn or so? How much is the tanking economy going to cost us this year and following years?

Brexit: playing Russian roulette with a wakizashi.

[Greyblades]

Hm, I will admit that for a moment I had been thinking it may not actually cost us much, the dead cat bounce is quite an issue, but that foolishness was after I had voted, I made my decision with the full knowledge of the consequences.

Pity the idiots who voted based on lies, though I think fewer voted leave than stay based on them, and laugh at the idiot politicians that jumped on the bandwagon while thinking leave wouldnt actually win.

Whether parliament made the promise with smart or foolish intent I still expect it to keep it's word and know there will be hell to pay if it does not.

The media can keep panicking as much as it wants and keep blaming thier loss on the politics of fear.

My feet are not near cold.

A little something on the politics of fear:

http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/...over-evidence/

We didnt ignore the experts, we accepted their prediction that this will hurt and we considered it worth it in the end.

The "experts" that we actually ignored were the ones that told us that this was an irrecoverable loss, that the nation will collapse for this.

Bullshit, nations have recovered from much worse, we recovered from much worse 80 years ago, we can do it again.

Our predicted ruin is as much bullshit as the idea that this would have brought about immediate prosperity and the reclaiming of past glories.

[InsaneApache]

What will you do to the 48% who voted Remain?

I know, you could have some good old nationalist concentration camps or scare them into submission. After all, it's for the good of the nation.

You know it makes perfect sense.

Except we accept the democratic result.

Even if we had lost.

You lot are acting like petulant teenagers who just been told that they can't stay out until 11 am on a school day.

Cue much stomping of feet and slamming of doors.

Just grow up and accept the democratic will of the people.

Is there a strict timetable that says they can't leave yet or are they just taking their time? "We don't like you, we're leaving.... sometime in like October starting it maybe." I guess I just get why some people aren't keen on letting the UK decide when they want to ruin everyone's day. Looking at the campaigns on both sides, calm and common sense left a while ago. If the UK is going to screw these countries, I don't see why they should simply grin and take it out of some weird desire for everyone to appear calm.

The clock starts ticking when they invoke article 50.

The UK's credit rating is plummeting. Which means we can't borrow on the scale that we've been doing before.

That's a bad thing? Borrowing money you struggle to pay back?

Alice in Wonderland socialism.

[Pannonian]

Hm, I will admit that for a moment I had been thinking it may not actually cost us much, the dead cat bounce is quite an issue, but that foolishness was after I had voted, I made my decision with the full knowledge of the consequences.

Pity the idiots who voted based on lies, though I think fewer voted leave than stay based on them, and laugh at the idiot politicians that jumped on the bandwagon while thinking leave wouldnt actually win.

Whether parliament made the promise with smart or foolish intent I still expect it to keep it's word and know there will be hell to pay if it does not.

The media can keep panicking as much as it wants and keep blaming thier loss on the politics of fear.

My feet are not near cold.

We didnt ignore the experts, we accepted their prediction that this will hurt and we considered it worth it in the end.

The "experts" that we actually ignored were the ones that told us that this was an irrecoverable loss, that the nation will collapse for this.

Bullshit, nations have recovered from much worse, we recovered from much worse 80 years ago, we can do it again.

Our predicted ruin is as much bullshit as the idea that this would have brought about immediate prosperity and the reclaiming of past glories.

Have you noticed that Scotland has been exploring the option of remaining as an independent entity, separate from the rUK? And that Spain has clarified that there will be no objections (despite fears over Catalonia), and other European countries have expressed support? Did you take the break up of the UK into consideration when you weighed the pros and cons?

[Greyblades]

Yes.

It is the only true regret I have. I hope, with Sturgeon outright calling for democracy to be ignored, with all our history together, with the uncertainty of the EU, that the scots will stay, but if they go so be it, I will not begrudge them for it as I share their anger at westminster. Scotland would cost us money to maintain, but it would be worth it for the company in trying times, I just have to accept they may not share the affection.

I will also need some citations on that spain thing.

[Pannonian]

Yes.

It is the only true regret I have. I hope, with Sturgeon outright calling for democracy to be ignored, with all our history together, with the uncertainty of the EU, that the scots will stay, but if they go so be it, I will not begrudge them for it as I share their anger at westminster. Scotland would cost us money to maintain, but it would be worth it for the company in trying times, I just have to accept they may not share the affection.

I will also need some citations on that spain thing.

Spain is unlikely to veto an independent Scotland’s EU membership

Spain’s veto seems unlikely. José Manuel García-Margallo, Spain’s foreign minister, declined to state that Spain would veto Scottish accession when invited to do so. Instead, the Spanish Government has taken the line that the cases of Catalonia and Scotland are fundamentally different because the UK’s constitutional setting permits referendums on secession while the current Spanish constitution enshrines the indivisibility of the Spanish state and establishes that national sovereignty belongs to all Spaniards.

The Spanish government is trying to make a virtue out of necessity. They would find it politically difficult to oppose an independent Scotland’s membership. As Stephen Tierney and Katie Boyle observe, ‘if the UK Government is prepared to recognise an independent Scotland and work towards its membership of the EU with the cooperation of EU institutions and the overwhelming majority of the other Member States, then it is simply unforeseeable that this would be vetoed by an individual Member State’.

So Scotland, once independent, can apply and Spain will not veto an independent entity. If Scotland wants membership of the EU, and it overwhelmingly does, independence is the way to go.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The UK's credit rating is plummeting. Which means we can't borrow on the scale that we've been doing before. Which means spending cuts or higher taxes. Wasn't one of the gripes, listed on the Brexit campaign bus, that we were giving more to the EU than we were getting back, to the tune of 8bn or so? How much is the tanking economy going to cost us this year and following years?

Brexit: playing Russian roulette with a wakizashi.

The UK's Credit rating has been cut, but the turmoil has also lowered the interest rates on new UK Bonds.

So, oddly, the cost of borrowing has gone down.

See - this is what happens when you read the headline and not the article.

[Greyblades]

So Scotland, once independent, can apply and Spain will not veto an independent entity. If Scotland wants membership of the EU, and it overwhelmingly does, independence is the way to go.

That is a politician's "maybe" and a pair of scottish professor's "surely"'s, one leaving his options open the other being rather optimistic, both seem careful not to say a definite "no they wont block".

I do not have faith in this blog of yours to come to such a conclusion, I dont think scotland should base it's options on it either.

[drone]

So Scotland, once independent, can apply and Spain will not veto an independent entity. If Scotland wants membership of the EU, and it overwhelmingly does, independence is the way to go.

In this scenario, who pays to rebuild Hadrian's Wall? All that unprotected border, ripe for illegal immigration and smuggling.

[Kralizec]

That is a politician's "maybe" and a pair of scottish professor's "surely"'s, one leaving his options open the other being rather optimistic, both seem careful not to say a definite "no they wont block".

I do not have faith in this blog of yours to come to such a conclusion, I dont think scotland should base it's options on it either.

Spain's prime minister has said during Scotland's referendum that separation from the UK would mean Scotland would find itself outside the EU, and that it would have to apply for its own membership. He also said that allthough he dissaproves of seperatism in general he would not veto Scotland's application, since Scotland's independence would be legal and legitimate according to the UK's own laws (unlike Catalonia's attempts).

I clearly recall this and it would be easy to find a number of articles about his exact words, but I'd rather have you go through the trouble yourself. It's not as if you're ever going to be convinced anyway. From this thread and others it's abundantly clear that you'll allways find some excuse to dismiss facts that don't agree with you.

[Greyblades]

Rather a long winded way of saying you're too lazy.

Spanish Prime Minister gives EU warning to Scots.

Mariano Rajoy has said an independent Scotland would have to apply from scratch for EU membership and the application process could take eight years.

Mariano Rajoy told the Spanish Parliament a yes vote for Scottish independence would be a “torpedo to the vulnerabilities of the European Union”.

Mr Rajoy added that the EU was not created “to break up states, but to integrate them” but Mr Salmond insisted the Spanish would not block a Scottish application.

The Spanish Prime Minister spoke out after the Telegraph disclosed that Mr Salmond has been accused of deliberately misleading Scots about an independent Scotland’s EU status.

The First Minister told the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show at the weekend that he had spoken to the Spanish, French, Italians and Belgians about his assertion that a separate Scotland would start life in the EU.

Mr Salmond has claimed claim that Scotland would not need to apply from scratch and would instead get a fast-track entry in the 18 months between a Yes vote and actual separation in March 2016.

But Mr Salmond told Radio Four’s Today programme: “The Spanish government's position is unchanged. They have said so many times that if there is a consenting democratic process then Spain, as they put it, would have nothing to say about it."

So no block, maybe, politicians being untrustworthy buggers at the best of times and salmond being an extremely liberal man when it comes to promises he cannot ensure. What is certain they sure as hell wont be getting in quick and English money will be a lot more forthcoming.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I feel like this is how some in the Leave camp feel - all forshadowing included.

[Greyblades]

The means are there, the will less so, but it will come.

Parliament is in a panic and are trying to weasel thier way out of the referendum, turning on eachother in a flurry of betrayal and blame. But I know it cannot last, for there is near guarenteed 10+ million votes up for grabs for the men who stand up and say "I will try to make this work" and a position as one of the top Prime Ministers in history for the man who does the deed. If the current crop of politicians wont discard thier old dreams of european integration and take the opportunity in front of them they will be swept out by those who will at the next elections.

Maybe I am being optimistic, but I believe it will happen because all signs point to the people being goddamn sick to death of the kick-the-can politics of the last two decades.

If only I twenty years older ten times braver and a thousand times wiser.

[InsaneApache]

This thread needs some reggae...

[Sarmatian]

And in latest news, Iceland also supports Brexit.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

One imagines Norway will support it too.

if the UK rejoins the EFTA then that block suddenly has much more punch. If the UK makes a go of it you may well see Swexit followed by Dexit (Danexit?) and then you could see two trading blocks, a "core" EU and an EFTA that trades in the same market but pays less into the budget and doesn't partake in the Quasi Federalism.

[Sarmatian]

One imagines Norway will support it too.

if the UK rejoins the EFTA then that block suddenly has much more punch. If the UK makes a go of it you may well see Swexit followed by Dexit (Danexit?) and then you could see two trading blocks, a "core" EU and an EFTA that trades in the same market but pays less into the budget and doesn't partake in the Quasi Federalism.

Yeah, right. Basically, at this point you guys should be happy if you keep United in the title.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Yeah, right. Basically, at this point you guys should be happy if you keep United in the title.

I offer one possible scenario.

At this point Scottish Independence is inevitable, it's a question of when - not if - and that's been true since the Scottish Parliament was created. It's the logical Conclusion of a process begun more than a century ago when we began granting Self Rule to the Colonies and making them into Dominions.

[Pannonian]

And in latest news, Iceland also supports Brexit.

One imagines Norway will support it too.

if the UK rejoins the EFTA then that block suddenly has much more punch. If the UK makes a go of it you may well see Swexit followed by Dexit (Danexit?) and then you could see two trading blocks, a "core" EU and an EFTA that trades in the same market but pays less into the budget and doesn't partake in the Quasi Federalism.

*Whoosh*

"Seems we're desperate to get out of Europe in all ways." - Gary Lineker (on twitter)

[Pannonian]

Yeah, right. Basically, at this point you guys should be happy if you keep United in the title.

I prefer London City, or South East United. Dunno what colours to wear though. Whatever happens though, England are rubbish.

[Gilrandir]

As such, if London leaves, it will no longer act like a magnet, thus it would give rise to growth and prosperity to other cities such as Manchester, Edinburgh, etc.

Even if London doesn't leave, Edinburgh is likely to.

Yeah, right. Basically, at this point you guys should be happy if you keep United in the title.

I wonder whether it will still be GREAT Britain or will they change that title as well?


Meanwhile, bigotry is gathering momentum:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7104191.html

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

*Whoosh*

"Seems we're desperate to get out of Europe in all ways." - Gary Lineker (on twitter)

Oh, that was a football reference, wasn't it?

See - I thought Sarmation had read something I hadn't and was making a serious contribution because Iceland, like Norwary, is part of the ETFA.

Silly me.

[Husar]

I wonder whether it will still be GREAT Britain or will they changed that title as well?

I propose North Britain and South Britain. The North can then worship Farage as the eternal great leader and begin to build a dynasty. His followers will be called Il Farage and Un Farage. Remain voters will be sent to Labour Camps (pun intended) for the glory of the Working Peoples' Republic of North Britannia.

[...]part of the ETFA.

The European Trade-Free Area? (no offense intended)