I would vote that we close this thread and move efforts to the exit thread.
I would vote that we close this thread and move efforts to the exit thread.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
agreed.
many feel the falklands conflict was at its heart a failure of communication; in that our gov't by both military commitment/capability and diplomatic prevarication lead Argentina to [believe] that taking the falklands was a gamble it could win.
they could not win that gamble, as history proved, but the failure was ours in letting them believe in that foolish possibility.
let there be no such miscommunication in future, eh. ;)
Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar
Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar
what do i think:
1. We'll make permanent the status of EU migrants in respective countries.
> Something equivalent to an automatic declaration of permanent residency for eu citizens who've been in-country for more than five years.
> The automatic right to stay in-country and achieve the five year permanent residency under the old regime if you arrived prior to Art50.
> The qualified right to achieve five year permanent residency under the stricter non-eu regime as per the RoW if you arrived after Art50.
2. The Brexit bill will end up being counted in the single figure billions once debts and assets are divvied up.
> I doubt there will even be a payment for the balance as such, it will simply be massaged into long term transfers and interest payments.
> We'll not pull out our 'investment' in the EIB.
> We'll pay our dues, because that is what we do. Simply that the dues agreed won't be as apocalyptic as some imagine.
3. The EU:Ukraine DCFTA will be the template upon which the free-trade agreement is built.
> It is purpose designed for an 'association' state, not an accession state. Which is exactly what we'll be.
> The Services section (chapter 6) will be arbitrated under a joint panel, not the ECJ as is the case with Ukraine.
> There will be fewer exceptions in the negative list of reserved areas than is the case with Ukraine.
4. The UK will remain outside the EEA (obviously, given the above), and thus removed from the direct jurisdiction of the ECJ.
> There is no way the UK is being a rule-taker across broad swathes of its economy. The model will be equivalence.
> That said, I've little doubt there will be areas where equivalence is not available, and a limited sector based passport is agreed.
> Further, that there will remain some limited areas of legislation where it is sensible to remain under EU regulation (and thus the ECJ). Fine.
5. That we will remain outside [the] customs union and free to conclude our own trade agreements.
> Having said that specific integrated supply chains will be included in the envelope of [a] customs union.
> We will quickly pickup existing eu trade agreements, because we are willing to provide better terms (fewer protected areas).
> Individual FTA's with Canada, Oz and Nz will eventually become a CANZUK trade zone.
6. Security cooperation will be maintained, and in fact deepen in some areas.
> We will have a formal agreement for participation in the nordic defense union, as well as the Visegrad group.
> We'll keep on providing a security guarentee to europe, as well as supplying intelligence, and europe will continue being grateful.
> NATO will weaken, rather than fail, and that will make us more important as a bridge to those for whom defence matters.
It will probably require a transition period beyond Art50 to set in place the passports, equivalence regime, and arbitration.
Broadly, i think this benign view of events will come about due to mutual self-interest:
When 80% of FDI arrives through london, hard-brexit is calamitous stupidity to nations with negative interest rates, 10% unemployment, and weak growth.The next cyclical downturn is coming, u ready yet?
Whatever the UK gets will be 'inferior' to EU membership. But that's fine, because it will mainly involve the EU keeping things we don't value very much, and the UK gaining things that the EU doesn't rate very highly. This is after all why we are leaving, because there was a mismatch between the perceived benefits and tradeoffs.
Oh, and security for trade is definitely a thing.
Last edited by Furunculus; 04-04-2017 at 18:09.
Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar
Goes both ways http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...obs-to-london/
Ref what I was talking about before - Spain invaded Gibraltar's water yesterday: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...braltar-waters
Honestly, this really could sink everything.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Insanity, time to freeze Spanish accounts, if they insist on this put on the hurt, hello Spain, you got billions in The City the UK can play hardball as well and better because they are Brittish, and you are, well Spanish
Last edited by Fragony; 04-05-2017 at 11:57.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Under the laws of war, no.
We are not legally at war with Spain.
Also - times have changed and Gibraltar has been British throughout living memory. There is no one alive now who remembers it being Spanish. Furthermore, the citizens of Gibraltar want to remain British, and they were born there.
Support for the Spanish position is untenable - morally speaking - because Gibraltar does no harm to Spain as a British territory but handing it over to Spain would do great harm to Gibraltarians.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Would you prefer if they declared war on you?
And how many people were still alive who remembered the actual state of Israel when you gave it back to them?
Times may have changed, but that is not really an argument you can win a conflict with.
Gibraltar harms the Spanish national spirit as it is like a mark of defeat, a stain on the integrity of their national territory.
They also reconquered their land from the Caliphate(s) long after anyone who remembered it being Spanish land was still alive.
As a historian you should know that the national memory lasts far longer than the personal one.
As Sarmatian says, the Spanish wouldn't harm Gibraltarians most likely, but the Spanish are harmed by this stain on their territory every day.
Last edited by Husar; 04-05-2017 at 18:00.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
If Mexico and Canada can federalize with the United States, I'm fine with Germany reclaiming Pomerania and Silesia.As a historian you should know that the national memory lasts far longer than the personal one.
Vitiate Man.
History repeats the old conceits
The glib replies, the same defeats
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Well, due to the EU, the entire HRE/Frankish Empire and a few others are reunited anyway.
The Spanish would have stopped this sillyness anyway by the time they'd all been Europeans instead of UKzians and Spaniards.
The EU Navy cannot violate its own territory in the future, but it can violate UK territory.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Furunculus Maneuver: Adopt a highly logical position on a controversial subject where you cannot disagree with the merits of the proposal, only disagree with an opinion based on fundamental values. - Beskar
Britain holds Gibraltar by right of conquest (right wing argument, went out of fashion after Napoleon), right of treaty (right wing argument, has never gone out of fashion), and right of self determination (left wing argument, became primary method of determination during WW1 and has been ever since). Husar's support of Spain over Gibraltar is based on wanting to screw Britain over, nothing more.
Oh come now, Gents, let's be reasonable and just agree that the Kingdom of Belgium has no right to exist. It should be partitioned and given back to the Dutch and French respectively.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
People should accept the past and look forward. Hell Finland lost Karelia and Petsamo to Soviet Union during WW2, with them the second largest city at the time in Finland, Viborg, with half a million refugees from those areas relocating to areas that remained. We also still have people wanting to get those areas back after 73 years. What is in the past is in the past. There are always excuses for war, but is that shit worth it?
Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.
As Husar wants to turn back the clock to before Gibraltar became English, things were better back in the 17th century when holidaymakers from all over Europe were touring Germany for thirty years at a time. The native German delicacies were much enjoyed by these European tourists.
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.
Last edited by Husar; 04-05-2017 at 22:17.
"Topic is tired and needs a nap." - Tosa Inu
Judging by the amount of dissatisfaction from the EU, to put it nicely, with the way the negotiations have went so far - and even the idea of Brexit - UK will have a sinuous road for the next two years.
Free trade deal is the most important one and if it doesn't get negotiated fast, London will lose a ton of banks (first) and then a lot of businesses (second).
Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.
Proud
Been to:
Swords Made of Letters - 1938. The war is looming in France - and Alexandre Reythier does not have much time left to protect his country. A novel set before the war.
A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?
I think you have the basic flow of things correctly assessed here.
However, I am not as sanguine with your ascription of self determination as the dominant theme for decision to the "left." I will note that I am reacting to that labeling as a yank, however, so it may be a translation issue.
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
"The only way that has ever been discovered to have a lot of people cooperate together voluntarily is through the free market. And that's why it's so essential to preserving individual freedom.” -- Milton Friedman
"The urge to save humanity is almost always a false front for the urge to rule." -- H. L. Mencken
This is pretty much the definition of "being a jerk".
Let's hope the EU negotiators are not also motivated by pique, although it seems they may well be.
Self-Determination is THE argument for sovereignty in the UK, there isn't really any other. The tenacity with which the UK holds to that argument has its roots in the Falklands War, a war we did not want to fight and which was very costly relative to the number of citizens and the territory at risk. This is why the UK can sometimes sound very bellicose, it's not a desire for war in the slightest, it's a fear that our resolve will be underestimated and we'll have to fight another war we can ill afford to protect our Overseas Territories. The view is then further informed by the bitter taste we have from freely handing Hong Kong back to China largely against the desires of the Hong Kong Chinese. A lot of Brits, myself included, feel at least partly responsible for what has happened since despite recognising that we couldn't keep Hong Kong without the New Territories and would not have been able to negotiate a new lease with the PRC.
So, you'd beter bloody believe we'll defend Gibraltar, Bermuda etc. to the hilt
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
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