POTUS/General Election Thread 2020 + Aftermath

[ReluctantSamurai]

To be fair, the moderates were always correlated with vulnerable seats and the progressives with safe seats.

So how do you explain Cori Bush in ultra-conservative Missouri? As to vulnerable moderates, blaming progressives and whining doesn't explain why they lost

I feel pretty good about this one.

It appears that way, but then so did the polls all year long. CoviDon HATES to lose, so he will drag this out as long as possible.

All signs point to the Republican Party cutting Trump loose.

When has that ever mattered? If CoviDon can come up with any kind of reasonable case that can reach SCOTUS, Republicans will lick his boots just as they have throughout his term, and especially this year.

QAnon has surprising appeal around the world. It's germinating all over the place.

Not only surprising, but puzzling, and dangerous to democracy. WTF!?!

OTOH, the sheer stupidity of Trump supporters is on full display in Arizona and Pennsylvania. In both states, the presidential race is extremely tight. However, in Arizona, a larger share of uncounted votes come from Republican dominated districts, so of course Trumpists are chanting "Count All the Votes!". In Pennsylvania, a larger share of uncounted votes come from Democratic dominated districts, so the Trumpists chant "Stop the Vote!".

@ACIN---this lends much credibility to your earlier statement that "People are extremely fucking dumb and too easily suckered in by media bubbles"

[Hooahguy]

So how do you explain Cori Bush in ultra-conservative Missouri? As to vulnerable moderates, blaming progressives and whining doesn't explain why they lost

Lol, MO-1 is an extremely solidly blue district. Has reliably been in Dem hands for over two decades. Bush's predecessor, Lacy Clay, won the 2018 midterms with 80% of the vote. In 2016 it was 75%. In the Dem rout of 2010, he still got like 78%. Hardly an ultra-conservative district. We wont know exactly why Dems got shellacked in those House races until all the votes come in and a proper analysis can be done. I mean Ilhan Omar got 15% less votes than Biden did in her very solidly blue district too last I checked so I dont think its a moderate/progressive issue and just a general downballot problem in swing districts. But I can understand why moderates are mad at progressives because the progressive candidates are pretty much just in safe Dem seats and the moderates in swing districts, so they werent the ones who got voted out. And there is a perception that more radical ideas like defund the police or packing the courts hurt. Did those slogans actually hurt? I dunno. My initial hypothesis is that a number of swing voters wanted Trump gone, but also a GOP check on Biden and the Dems so they voted split ticket.

Also I disagree that Biden was a weak candidate. Bland, yes, but also perfect for the moment. Anyone else who ran in the primaries would have lost. And certainly would not have been leading in Georgia of all places. Bernie would have been crushed too, an American version of Labour's rout in 2019 under Corbyn.

And a final note, I see a lot of Dems being apoplectic because this wasn't a Dem sweep. I too am upset that we didnt get a Dem majority in the Senate, but assuming there's no coup attempt, we won back the White House which is still very big. A lot of good can still be done even with a split government. We should try to enjoy the moment before rolling up our sleeves to try to win the two GA special elections and then the 2022 midterms.

[ReluctantSamurai]

Lol, MO-1 is an extremely solidly blue district. Has reliably been in Dem hands for over two decades.

Overlooks the fact that she is the first black woman ever to be elected to Congress in Missouri, and that her Democratic opponent in the primaries was a well established corporate Democrat in a family that dominated District 1 for nearly 50 years.

Also I disagree that Biden was a weak candidate. Bland, yes, but also perfect for the moment. Anyone else who ran in the primaries would have lost.

We'll have to agree to disagree here. I'm in the contingent of folks who voted in this election for Biden/Harris not so much as support for them, but a rejection of Trump/Pence. It's speculation that noone else was capable of defeating Trump, and that Bernie would've gotten crushed.

We'll find out more about a Biden/Harris cabinet when we see his appointees. I suspect there will be more "disenfranchised" Republicans than progressives. I have the sneaky suspicion that it's going to look more like the 80's and 90's, than 2020.

If Biden can restore some semblance of sanity and organization to America's COVID response, and restore some trust with our allies around the world, that makes this election a big win. I don't see much of his economic platform bearing fruit, at least for the first two years, as long as the Grim Reaper is the Senate majority leader.

[edyzmedieval]

Senate is still undecided. Georgia's 2 elections are in runoff territory, to be done in January.

A double win for both seats would make it 51-49 for the Democrats.

[Hooahguy]

Overlooks the fact that she is the first black woman ever to be elected to Congress in Missouri, and that her Democratic opponent in the primaries was a well established corporate Democrat in a family that dominated District 1 for nearly 50 years.

Are you insinuating that the voters who for decades voted for a Black man for congress would all of a sudden reject a Black woman? Im not saying that its not an accomplishment to be the first Black woman ever to be elected to Congress in Missouri, but the election wasn't exactly close to begin with. But now lets take Kara Eastman, a progressive, in Nebraska's 2nd District. She lost her race but Biden won her district, which netted a valuable electoral college vote.

We'll have to agree to disagree here. I'm in the contingent of folks who voted in this election for Biden/Harris not so much as support for them, but a rejection of Trump/Pence. It's speculation that noone else was capable of defeating Trump, and that Bernie would've gotten crushed.

Well considering that Bernie got utterly shellacked in places like Michigan and Wisconsin during the primary, I think we do know how it would have gone.

On the topic of Nebraska-02 though, I saw something last night which suggested that while getting rid of the electoral college wont happen as it requires a constitutional change, a setup like Maine and Nebraska have could be a way forward with proportional EC votes in each state. Thoughts?

[drone]

My uninformed take:

Democrats are complaining about not sweeping everything/poor performance, but I don't think they are giving Trump enough credit. Say what you will about his policies or fitness for the job, he knows how to get his supporters out to vote. Many may have expected a repeat of 2018, but Trump was not on the ballot in 2018. Not all the votes are in nationally, but it's looking like Biden's 7-9% national lead in the polls prior to the election is going to translate to 4% in actuality. Given the inherit disadvantages for the Dems, having a slight lead in the House and not winning the Senate is about the correct result with a 4% differential. Trump overperformed. Turnout was high in 2018 and even higher for 2020, Dems were motivated in both, but Trump wasn't really giving it his all in 2018 (hell, he was actively sabotaging some GOP candidates).

On a related note, what will happen in the Georgia Senate runoffs? Trump will not be on the ballot, and may not give a rat's ass about the result by the time that election draws near. He's transactional, he's not really a Republican and there's not much the GOP can give him if he's on the way out, he's already raided them for as much money as he could grab. Republicans may be jumping ship, but they will need to figure out how they plan on winning in the future with a damaged brand and without the enthusiasm he generated. Stacey Abrams delivered Georgia (assuming current result stands) to Biden and managed to get a Perdue-Ossoff runoff, can she pull it out again in January? And where in the Cabinet is she going (because Biden owes her bigly)?

[ReluctantSamurai]

Are you insinuating that the voters who for decades voted for a Black man for congress would all of a sudden reject a Black woman?

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

So I guess the Fox News---Donald Trump relationship is over. It seems pretty obvious who was using who for that tryst.....

And who becomes Q (no not THAT Q Trekkies) if/when CoviDon is out?

[Montmorency]

Here's the deal with voters and policy. Voters don't pay a lot of attention to policy, but they might like ideas. In isolation, without much detail for baggage (this is what hobbled E. Warren). The cohort of Republicans, perhaps up to half, who are socially-conservative but fiscally-liberal can stomach incremental fiscal liberalism, or even incremental social liberalism, detached from candidates and parties. And some causes are more normalized than ever. They've gotten used to the periodic need to increase the minimum wage. The old standbys of Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are popular among them. They can accept gay marriage by now.

But they have decisively associated the Democratic Party with effeminate, contemptuous, eggheads who are trying to put lazy welfare blacks, illegal immigrants, uppity women, and disgusting in-your-face queers up over them (who are the normal, the primary, members of society). They will almost never vote for Democrats as long as an issue that speaks to this anxiety over unfair subordination is salient in an election. Even if the Democratic Party or candidates could manufacture a fantastical alignment with the deepest-held policy preferences of this cohort, the Dem(s) would struggle to attract their votes. It's a matter of longstanding perception and propaganda as well as largely-unconscious psychology and bias.

Once we have a grip on what the case is we can unwishfully think about how to get around it.

Are you insinuating that the voters who for decades voted for a Black man for congress would all of a sudden reject a Black woman? Im not saying that its not an accomplishment to be the first Black woman ever to be elected to Congress in Missouri, but the election wasn't exactly close to begin with. But now lets take Kara Eastman, a progressive, in Nebraska's 2nd District. She lost her race but Biden won her district, which netted a valuable electoral college vote.

Eastman underperformed by 3 points relative to 2018. Let's spare a thought for moderate after moderate sinking by 10, 20 points.

Well considering that Bernie got utterly shellacked in places like Michigan and Wisconsin during the primary, I think we do know how it would have gone.

It is a fair point that Biden had higher actual support among Democrats, but that was a distinct context and the 2020 environment was almost tailor-made for testing the Sandersite theory of politics: Dem vs. Repub rather than Dem vs. Dem. It would be nice to have a test of what kind of tradeoffs really could occur between moderates and economic conservatives, and social conservatives (though I'm equally pessimistic).

It is a kind of lower standard for Biden; a Sanders-like candidate performing exactly like Biden has would not be strenuously defended by modal Democrats in these discussions. Boy, a Sanders Pyrrhic victory (which is what 2020 has been) would be treated by the media as discrediting the left flank for a decade. So yeah, there's a bias independent of performance.

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

And I'm pretty sure they endorsed her Republican opponent...

Speaking of Missouri, it appears Missouri and Kansas have the same exact presidential margins. How poetic.

[Hooahguy]

To clarify...the more important part (for me) was that she ran a grassroots primary campaign against a corporate Democrat whose family was basically the Godfather of politics in that district.

Ok? I mean its not unheard of, but I'd be far more impressed if they could actually flip a seat instead of just beating Dem incumbents. If Bush ran in Spanberger's district she would have lost. Honestly I wish more progressive candidates were like Katie Porter who flipped her district in 2018 and held this year too. Progressive, but also doesnt say and do stupid shit.

Eastman underperformed by 3 points relative to 2018. Let's spare a thought for moderate after moderate sinking by 10, 20 points.

So she did even worse this time around then.

Also theres this fun article: Trump has signaled to allies that the Secret Service will have to drag him from the White House kicking and screaming.

All I can say is please dont threaten me with a good time. Who has popcorn?

[Montmorency]

https://thehill.com/homenews/preside...-story-socials

Santorum urges giving Trump time to accept defeat: 'This is a very emotional time'

What a fucking loser. Every statement about Trump is somehow disqualifying for him to have ever sat in office.

So she did even worse this time around then.

Bro, she got 49% of the vote in 2018. She did better than the incumbent who got kicked out in 2016, who endorsed the Republican this cycle. Best-boy Conor Lamb dropped by 6 this year.


Like I said, progressives are held to a much higher standard.

[Hooahguy]

Like I said, progressives are held to a much higher standard.

Because if you are going to say that "our approach to winning elections is better" then you have to prove it. And winning in a D+20 district is not proving it. To me anyways.