Hypocracy

[Xiahou]

Yep, the GOP has proven itself to be all pork--the ultimate hypocrisy. However, the fuel tax is not a big government slush fund, nor is it restricting your way of life unnecessarily.

You just contradicted yourself. More sweeping, unsubstantiated generalizations- as Im sure people have come to expect from you.

Also funny...it stops in 2002...hmmm, and the peak predictions are largely after that. I can find you piles of reports like this that have all been proven incorrect in their projections, but strangely they aren't coming from the Hubbert side.

If you can't find wrong projections on the Hubbert side, you just plain aren't looking.

The recent authors, notably Campbell and Laherrere have apparently rediscovered the Hubbert curve, but without understanding it, at least initially. Campbell and Laherrere initially argued that production should follow a bell curve, at least in an unconstrained province. But this is demonstratively not the case in practice: most nations’ production does not follow a Hubbert curve. In fact, Campbell (2003) shows production curves (historical and forecast) for 51 non-OPEC countries, and only 8 of them could be said to resemble a Hubbert curve even approximately.

The authors initially responded to this weakness by arguing that the Hubbert curve could have multiple peaks, which of course means it would not follow a bell curve at all, and destroys the explanatory value of the bell curve.

Multiple peaks- that's hilarious. The very idea that there could be multiple peaks destroys the idea of a bell curve, which then ruins any accuracy in the peak oil theory in predicting the 'final' peak- since you have no idea if a peak is the last one or just one of a sucession.

Not sure why this has been such a topic of discussion. As oil continues to become more expensive due in part to availability for whatever reason, people will just find alternatives. Just look at the number of emerging alternatives to appear on the scene in the last year. When there is a need for something, anything, someone develops it. Should an oil alternative been developed years ago, sure, but the demand was not as urgent. I think I will just sit back and watch capitalism work. Besides I’m busy worrying that the sun only has a few trillion years left before it burns out.

That's exactly what me and Gawain are saying. This is all so similar to the Kyoto protocol nonsense- we are trying to be convinced to spend truckloads of money on solutions for a crisis that doesn't exist.