Quote Originally Posted by English assassin
This empire-lite crap she is up to now is dangerous.
True, but when devising scenarios, you have to deal with all sorts of imponderables. This is one of them. It is highly unlikely that American public is prepared to stay in Iraq for the long haul. It is highly unlikely that Turkey will suffer a Kurdish state gladly. It is highly unlikely that Iran will not influence or downright smother a Southern Shiite Iraqi rump state.

However, if the U.S. stands up to Turkey on the Kurdish issue (by guaranteeing Iraqi Kurdistan's territorial integrity) and the EU makes it clear that effective Turkish membership is out of the question if they invade Iraqi Kurdistan, one might be able to pull this one off.

As for the Sunnis, they are obviously not prepared to deal with their demise if that means a Shiite domination of the country and no more oil benefits.

And the Shiites will not be prepared to suffer the American presence for much longer either. The famed 'long haul' would imply that the U.S. would be facing a Shiite guerilla as well as the present Sunni guerilla. Count your blessings.