I had some rather startling combat stats results from exhaustive battle-testing today. I wanted to post this info into its own separate thread outside the battle-testing thread that is stickied above for several reasons. This post isn't really just about the numbers from testing helping us understand how cavalry charges work (which is what I had in mind before I did the testing).
Really it is about some general considerations that I think might apply to analysis of any type of unit combat. These considerations are:
- battle-testing has limitations and quirks and can be frankly misleading
- common sense and the game manual may lead you to completely erroneous conclusions if you use them to predict what should happen
- the animations of carnage in the battle scenes - what it looks like is happening in a melee engagement - can be misleading
When people debate unit tactics, in these and other forums, how do they get the information to base their conclusions? People rely on looking at in game battles, closely watching animations of units in battle (so for cavalry as an example looking for charging or walking knights, lances levelled or swords drawn, bodies flying on impact, etc). People also rely on common sense/intuition (what should happen based on logic, developer's comments and the game manual), and when these don't reconcile or clarify they often use battle-testing to resolve questions.
And all three of these tools are flawed - read on.
Let me say up front I am NOT bashing this game. I love this game. It is the best Total War series game IMO, its up there with the best strategy games I have ever played (but that's another thread). The developers have done a great job. My point is directed at the community - that we need to be careful what we rely on to learn about how the game works and how to play better.
I started out following on from this thread to learn about how to charge cavalry to get the best result. The common sense idea is that cavalry in tight formation does more damage and that cavalry ordered to charge at infantry do more damage than cavalry only trotting into infantry with swords drawn. Here is the test scenario I used:
Single unit of Mailed Knights attacking a single unit of Noble Pikemen.
Battlefield flat grassy plain.
AI managed the Pikemen - medium difficulty (default).
I activated the cavalry attack with a single mouse action, given one time only (double or single right click on the target) - then let the units do their thing
Stats are from game end report
In all scenarios Pikemen (Attack 11, Defence 12) are same formation (default) 10 wide, 7 1/2 ranks deep.
In all scenarios Mailed Knights are in default formation (3 ranks 14, 14, 12) but vary in whether they are tight or loose formation.
No armor or attack bonus, but I varied experience in the Knights as below.
I tested:
Mailed Knights (experience zero) vs. Noble Pikemen (experience zero)
- Single right click attack, tight formation
- Double right click attack, tight formation
- Single right click attack, loose formation
- Double right click attack, loose formation
Mailed Knights (experience 5) vs. Noble Pikemen (experience zero)
- Single right click attack, tight formation
- Double right click attack, tight formation
- Single right click attack, loose formation
- Double right click attack, loose formation
* Note - I repeat tested each scenario 10 times *
What would you expect the results to be? I expected tightly packed, charging knights to do better. The double right click vs. single right click debate yielded some to these tests also.
Watching the unit animations up close this is what you see happen:
Knights in loose formation - single right click attack
Infantry brace for attack and present phalanx of pikes. Knights approach target slowly, at charge range they pause, maybe blow a trumpet or two, then go back to trotting along (do NOT lower lances, do NOT charge) and they basically walk into the pikes and use swords.
Knights in tight formation - single right click attack
Infantry brace for attack and present phalanx of pikes. Knights approach target slowly, at charge range they pause, blow a trumpet or two, then lower lances and make a full charge smashing into target, bodies flying.
Knights in loose formation - double right click attack
Infantry brace for attack and present phalanx of pikes. Knights approach target at gallop, at charge range they lower lances and charge into target.
Knights in tight formation - double right click attack
Infantry brace for attack and present phalanx of pikes. Knights approach target at gallop, at charge range they lower lances and charge into target.
Conclusion:
So that seems fairly simple. If you want a charge then Knights in tight formation will deliver with either a single or double right click, but if they are loose you have to double right click if you want the full lance charge. And the full charge looks a lot more damaging than the walking attack.
But wait - look at the statistics:
After Battle Results
I show the numbers from each of the ten tests of each scenario.
RC 1 = Single Right Click
RC 2 = Double Right Click
The numbers are surviving knights/surviving pikemen.
Results are blue for victory, red for a loss with a "V" or "L"
"Avg survived" means the average over ten trials of the number of surviving knights.
-----------Mailed Knights Experience Zero--------------Mailed Knights Experience 5-
---------------Loose--------------Tight-------------------Loose-------------Tight----
Test # ----RC 1------RC 2------RC 1------RC 2--------RC 1------RC 2-----RC 1-------RC 2
1---------1/26 L----25/0 V----1/32 L----0/32 L-------0/28 L----14/4 V---24/0 V-----21/0 V
2---------21/0 V----24/23 V---8/0 V----21/13 V------26/0 V----21/0 V---21/22 V---18/0 V
3---------27/0 V----33/0 V----8/0 V----19/0 V-------20/0 V----0/23 L----25/0 V----25/30 V
4---------27/32 V---19/0 V----24/0 V---18/0 V-------27/10 V---7/3 V----17/0 V----0/16 L
5---------24/0 V----0/23 L----1/39 L----1/21 L-------12/0 V----22/0 V---10/0 V----7/10 V
6---------24/0 V----18/25 V---10/0 V---13/0 V-------34/0 V----11/19 V--20/0 V----21/0 V
7---------32/26 V---21/13 V---19/0 V---12/0 V-------19/0 V----21/0 V---22/0 V----23/0 V
8---------27/0 V----16/0 V----0/17 L----1/25 L-------23/0 V----19/14 V--26/0 V----18/0 V
9---------16/0 V----3/21 L----9/0 V-----1/39 L-------20/0 V----21/0 V---21/0 V-----8/0 V
10--------29/0 V----19/0 V----0/39 L----22/0 V------32/25 V----0/28 L---1/37 L----24/0 V
Avg
Survived--22.8------17.8------8.0------10.8--------21.3------13.6-----18.7-----16.5
So the stats show in contrast to the animation that the best outcome - knights against ranks of pikemen - is with a single right click attack of zero experience, loosely formed knights. The animation of that doesn't show any charge - they simply walk into ranks of spears. But more of them survive than any other scenario including thundering great charges by level 5 experienced Knights in tight formation knocking bodies flying all over the place! They have less defeats (1/10) than all other methods of using zero experience knights (charging, tight formation etc).
Is it meant to be? I don't know but there are clues from other testing scenarios what might be going on. In this thread Kenchi Sulla noted different outcomes when formations of knight cavalry charged pikemen in different - broader or narrower - formations. I think, if I am reading him correctly, he found that when the standard 14 wide cavalry unit charged his pikes deployed only 10 wide, the pikes died. But when he broadened the Pikemen's front to 20 wide they survived the cavalry charge and beat it off. So maybe a pike unit survives an attack better by being broader than the attacker and vice versa - a broader formation of cavalry kills better than one narrower than the target unit. That may be why loose formed knights do better - they deploy broader than the target unit. In watching the charges up close what appears to happen if you use a broad formation against a narrower/deeper one is the excess troops on the flanks "wrap around" the opponent's unit and envelope it more - perhaps getting some flank attack bonus? They also seem to kill the target unit General quicker and where is he? - on the flank!
In that same testing thread Romor notedI found the exact opposite. As you can see loose formation mailed knights do better against pikemen than tightly packed ones.First I tested the best formation for charging with me has cavalry against melee units. Charging in loose formation will always result in a heavy defeat has it should.
Several things I invite people to think about:
First Point - battle testing as a tool:
I did each test scenario ten times over. The spread in each scenario is quite marked with crushing defeats all the way to crushing victories - with exactly the same settings and units.
For example look at column 4 of the test results. That was Mailed Knights, zero experience. in tight formation, double right click attack vs. Pikemen:
Survivors (Knights/Pikes) - Victory or Loss
0/32 - Loss
21/13 - Victory
19/0 - Victory
18/0 - Victory
1/21 - Loss
13/0 - Victory
12/0 - Victory
1/25 - Loss
1/39 - Loss
22/0 - Victory
If ten people from the Guild each did the above test once each, four people would conclude that (in the test conditions) Pikemen slaughter charging knights, a couple would conclude knights win, but at the cost of most of the unit, and the rest would conclude it is a fairly safe bet for the Knights to come out with a win and about half of them surviving.
Point is if you battle-test and run only one or two test attacks be very wary of reading much into the results. There seems to be a significant random element that offers far more variation than any other variable - so a single result is basically meaningless.
Second Point - the utility of watching unit animations in analyzing combat outcomes:
I invite people to make a custom battle as I did, take a unit of Mailed Knights loosely formed and try a single right click attack on Pikemen. Look up close and see the infantry braced for attack with their bristling phalanx of pikes. Watch the cavalry walk into that spear hedge and casually swing a few swords. Then try a double right click attack, look at the charging Knights, lances level, knocking Pikemen over like ninepins. There looks to be a lot more damage in the second, but isn't so - the seemingly anemic attack is the best. Point is we need to be careful in judging what is going on by watching the animations. They are great to watch but don't exactly reflect the outcome.
Third Point - the predictive value of intuition and the way the game should be
These test results suggest that I should take my elite cavalry and walk them into enemy spear units with a wimpish single right click attack. I don't think I can do it! I'm always wanting to double right click about 5 times just to make sure they get the message! It is a charge after all - that is supposed to be the way to smash the enemy?
The intent of the developers I thought was to bonus charging units for being in tight formation. A helpful developer's blog came out today addressing this very matter
I'm not sure if Jason meant formed and unformed charges to equate to loose and tight formation but if he did then the system isn't working.Regarding the new charge mechanic, there are two charges available to a cavalry unit:
a formed charge which allows for most of the unit to charge into a target; and an unformed charge which stops the charge after 10% of the soldiers within that unit have made contact with the target. In RTW this wasn’t as much of an issue because cavalry did not have long lances and as such did not require two significantly different charge abilities. The M2TW charge system allows you to have a very powerful charge if you do everything right and a light charge if you don’t.
The triggers for a formed (powerful) charge include:
• Line up the cavalry parallel to the target
• Utilize a long straight run up toward the target
• Prioritize stationary targets as moving targets may result in a last second turn and reform
The triggers for an unformed (weak) charge include:
• The unit is spread out just before charging
• The charge is issued while too close to the target
• The charge is issued when the unit isn’t facing the target
• The player changes direction just before the charge
• The target moves and turns just before being hit
Currently we have set the balance so that a formed charge is very strong due to the unit’s collision mass on impact and have set the unformed charge to be rather weak due to the 10% stop charge threshold. This ensures that players that love to see mass destruction and men thrown in the air get what they want and those that want a balanced game where cavalry don’t dominate every other unit get what they want. This is certainly something we will look to get your feedback on once you get the update and see the charge in action with the additional tweaks.
Here is the reality
- in 3 of 4 test scenario pairings above a single right click attack is better than a double right click (command to charge)
- in 3 of 4 test scenario pairings above a loosely formed unit kills better than a unit in tight formation.
- in loose formation, lower experience knights get better stats than level 5 experience units (the reverse is true with tightly packed Knights)
- the single most effective (in killing) unit tested was the least experienced, unformed, not charging.
How we think the game should work, maybe the way the developers wanted it to work, and the way the animation shows it working, all suggest a single right click, loose formation, attack is weak - but it is the most effective!
I wonder if this is unintentional? Perhaps some other people might reproduce the tests and I certainly will at some point but I'm a bit burned out watching about 100 cavalry charges and hearing the same exclamations about dead Generals and St. George!
Again, this isn't about bashing the game. It's a great game.
Comments?
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