From perusing the contents of export_descr_guilds.txt i have determined the following:
Each guild type has 3 levels, to get a guild at each level the player has to score a certain number of points for either their faction overall, or for that particular settlement.
Guild: 100 points
Masters Guild: 250 points
Guild HQ: 500 points
The player gains (and loses) points for each guild for each settlement, and for their entire faction, by performing certain deeds. In general, settlements will gain more per deed (typically 10-30 points) than the overall faction score (typically 1-5 points per deed).
Not sure how the overall faction score works, presumably if your overall faction score exceeds the required amount you will get offered a guild even if none of your individual settlements qualify - thus you can still get guilds by, say, training lots of priests all over the place - but it will still be far quicker if you train them all in the same settlement.
Agents can also gain points. Assume that this is once per agent, and that these points add to the overall faction score. Edit: hmmm... this may refer to achievements rather than agents.
Edit: According to work done by Kobal2fr it looks probable that all scores are added to each settlement, or at least the settlement and overall faction scores are (dont know about the agent stuff yet).
Edit: Eldon made the observation that the three tags in export_descr_guilds.txt refer to the specific settlement, other settlements, and all settlements, respectively. This makes a whole lot more sense than the whole the whole faction and agent scores i came up with, so i've edited the stuff below to reflect this.
In summary, points are gained for:
1. The specific settlement where the event occurred.
2. All settlements other than where the event occurred (usually a smaller number of points).
3. All settlements regardless of where the event occurred.
General
Upgrade a guild (+20 settlement bonus for that guild type, +10 to other settlements)
Destroy a guild building (huge penalty for that guild type, -100 settlement, -20 others)
Upgrade a settlement (+10 settlement bonus for all guild types)
Every 25 turns every settlement loses 1 point for all guilds (or 1 point every turn after turn 25?)
Missions
Bonuses are also given for successfully completing a guild mission, but failing to complete the guild mission will incur a penalty for that guild type.
The following guilds offer missions:
Assassin's/Hashashim's Guild
Merchant's Guild
Explorer's Guild
Theologian's Guild
Thieves Guild
Assassin's/Hashashim's Guild
Train assassin/hashashim: +10 settlement
Successful Assassinations: +20 all settlements
Governor with dread >4: +4 settlement bonus (per turn?)
Build brothel series buildings: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +0/0/0/2/5 others
Succeed/Fail guild mission: +/-10 all settlements
Alchemist's Guild
Train Cannons etc: +10/15/20 settlement
Train handgunners etc: +15 settlement
Build cannon maker series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +1/2/3/4/5 others
Explorer's Guild
Train merchants: +10 settlement
Build shipbuilding buildings: +15/20/25/30 settlement, +0/0/2/5 others
Build merchants wharf series: +20/25/30 settlement, +0/2/5 others
Fleet distance from capital 50-99: +3 all settlements
Fleet distance from capital >100 : +5 all settlements
Succeed/Fail Explorer guild mission: +/-30 all settlements
Horse Breeder's Guild
Train cavalry: +10 settlement, +1 others
Build stables series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +1/2/3/4/5 others
Build racetrack/sultan's ractrack +50/75 settlement, +5 others
Governor throws races: +5 settlement
Mason's Guild
Build Stone wall series: +10/15/20 settlement, +2/2/3 others
Build mustering halls series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +2/2/2/2/3 others
Build town watch series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement +2/2/2/2/3 others
Build armourer series: +10/15/15/20/25/30 settlement +2/2/2/2/2/3 others
Build bowyer series: +10/15/20/30 settlement +2/2/2/3 others
Merchant's Guild
Train merchants: +10 settlement
Build merchants wharf series: +20/25/30 settlement, +0/2/5 others
Build market series: +10/15/20/25 settlement, +0/0/2/5 others
Make trade agreement: +10 all settlements
Successful aquisition: +10 all settlements
Income > 1000/2000/5000/10000: +1/2/3/4 all settlements(per turn?)
Succeed/Fail merchant's guild mission: +/- 10/20 all settlements (depending on difficulty?)
Swordsmith's Guild
Build armourer series: +10/15/15/20/25/30 settlement, +0/0/0/1/2/5 others
Train sword unit: +15 settlement
Units: Sword and Buckler Men, Sudanese Tribesmen, Swordsmen Militia, Armored Swordsmen, Highland Nobles, Zweihander, Noble Swordsmen, Forlorn Hope, Byzantine Infantry, Battlefield Assassins, Norse Swordsmen, Dismounted Feudal Knights, Dismounted Chivalric Knights, Dismounted Gothic Knights, Dismounted Conquistadores, Dismounted Italian MAA, Dismounted Broken Lances, Dismounted Norman Knights, Dismounted Polish Knights, Dismounted E Chivalric Knights, Dismounted Byzantine Lancers, Dismounted Latinkon, Hashishim, Urban Militia, Dismounted Christian Guard
Theologian's Guild
Train Priests: +10 settlement
Build church/masjid series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +0/0/1/2/5 others
Get your cardinal elected pope: +30 all settlements
Governor's piety >5: +5 settlement (per turn?)
Succeed/Fail theologian's guild mission: +/-10 all settlements
Priest becomes a heretic: -5 all settlements
Thieves Guild
Train spies: +10 settlement
Build brothel series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement
Governor with dread >4: +2 settlement (per turn?)
Spy in a settlement: +2 all settlements (per turn?)
Succeed/Fail theives guild mission: +/-10 all settlements
Woodsman's Guild
Recruit archers (England only!): +10/15/20 settlement (depending on unit)
Build brothel series: +10/15/20/25/30 settlement, +0/0/0/2/5 others
Governor with chivalry >4: +5 settlement (per turn?)
Various Knight's Chapter Houses
General joins crusade: +25 all settlements
General abandons crusade: -25 all settlements
Recruit Specialist Knight: +10 settlement, +1 others (knight type tied to guild type)
Governor Chivalry >4: +5 settlement
St. John's guild get a +10 settlement, +1 others bonus when the settlement has muslim neighbours
St. John's guild get a +10 bonus for all settlements when you declare war on a muslim faction.
Teutonic guild get a +10 settlement, +1 others bonus when the settlement has pagan neighbours
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