I've played England, Turkey, Moor, Milan and HRE so far.
From what I've noticed, Thieves guild seems the msot common of all guilds you can get. I get them almost every second turn even though I hate the thieves guild and don't want it.
I have only ever gotten Theologians guild early as HRE and late as Moors, never with the others.
Merchant's guild I only got with Milan and England (first English campaign, not in second one)
As Moors, i got spammed with Hashashim guilds and Thieves.
As Turkey I just got Explorer and Thieves guilds.

I only ever got offered swordsmith very late in game as Turks and only once.
Never Woodsmen, Horsebreeder's or Mason's guilds as any faction although you'd think that when I'm building the max amount of longbows in every single castle as the English every single turn, I should get something, but no.
And I build stuff in cities every turn possible (rather building than units) and also no Mason's guild.
Mass training knights in castles when not English and no swordssmith or horsebreeders.

Either there is a very large random factor or something isn't working.