My spies watch movies?

[Martok]

The phenomenon you mention is not an isolated one--quite a few players have experienced it as well.

While no one knows for sure why it happens, it's been speculated that the spy *does* have genuine information indicating a certain faction is about to invade another....but that then something happens to cause the AI controlling that faction to change its mind and call off the attack.

My hunch as to what happens is this (it's a little wordy, hence the spoiler tags):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Let's say that Faction A is getting ready to attack Faction B next year, and your spy picks up on this. He therefore dispatches a message to your king saying as much. I think what most likely is happening, however, is that after you've ended ended the turn (and a new year has begun) is that Faction A notices that Faction C has suddenly built up its military forces along their mutual border. As a result, A decides that, instead of attacking B, that it needs to keep its army at home to protect itself from a possible incursion by C.

A year or two after this (assuming Faction C still hasn't attacked), A once again harbors ambitions of gaining more territory. So once again, it mobilizes to invade B. Again, your spy reports this. On the next turn, however, C (or perhaps Faction D) once more threatens A with invasion itself, and so again A keeps its army at home.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I have no proof that this is what actually happens, of course, so you should accept my explanation with as many grains of salt as you're comfortable with. Still, I have a feeling that my explanation must be at least something like what happens. I say this because on occasion, those spy reports actually turn out to be true....leading me to believe they're not just random.

Oh, and welcome to the Org, Brandy_Blue! Glad you could join us.