My spies watch movies?

[Martok]

The phenomenon you mention is not an isolated one--quite a few players have experienced it as well.

While no one knows for sure why it happens, it's been speculated that the spy *does* have genuine information indicating a certain faction is about to invade another....but that then something happens to cause the AI controlling that faction to change its mind and call off the attack.

My hunch as to what happens is this (it's a little wordy, hence the spoiler tags):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Let's say that Faction A is getting ready to attack Faction B next year, and your spy picks up on this. He therefore dispatches a message to your king saying as much. I think what most likely is happening, however, is that after you've ended ended the turn (and a new year has begun) is that Faction A notices that Faction C has suddenly built up its military forces along their mutual border. As a result, A decides that, instead of attacking B, that it needs to keep its army at home to protect itself from a possible incursion by C.

A year or two after this (assuming Faction C still hasn't attacked), A once again harbors ambitions of gaining more territory. So once again, it mobilizes to invade B. Again, your spy reports this. On the next turn, however, C (or perhaps Faction D) once more threatens A with invasion itself, and so again A keeps its army at home.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

I have no proof that this is what actually happens, of course, so you should accept my explanation with as many grains of salt as you're comfortable with. Still, I have a feeling that my explanation must be at least something like what happens. I say this because on occasion, those spy reports actually turn out to be true....leading me to believe they're not just random.

Oh, and welcome to the Org, Brandy_Blue! Glad you could join us.

[caravel]

Like Martok has said it works in the way e.g. Egyptians in Antioch have a huge stack there. Your (Byzantine) spy informs you that the Turks in Syria are the likely target, but nothing happens. Basically the spy checks the size of a stack, and the most likely target province for a possible invasion, i.e. that which is the most vulnerable (explaining why it's rarely the players provinces that come up, as the players are usually better protected, whith chokepoints established etc). It's not that useful.

[Vladimir]

I received a warning that the Papacy was going to invade in two years, one year after they launched a massive invasion of Venice.

[Don Esteban]

Maybe the courier sending the report got lost on the way to tell you......

[caravel]

It's a case of:

Two Almohad spies in Castile is peeping out of a thicket.

Spy: "wow, now that is an army, they're obviously going to invade Cordoba next year!!"

Other Spy: "the Khalifah needs to know about this... oh hold on...

Castilian General: "Well, I think we'd better get moving if we're to invade NAVARRE TOMORROW AFTERNOON" *wink wink nudge nudge"

Castilian Captain: "Oh yes, we'd better get the men mounted up and move out, we're taking the NOTHERN ROAD into NAVARRE after all" *wink nudge"

Spy: "Hmmmm they're attacking Navarre, or should I say NAV..."

Other Spy: "Shhhhhhhhh..."

Spy: "oops"

Other Spy: "We'd better go and inform the Khalifah that the Dons are heading for Navarre then?"

Spy: "Lets go..."

Much Later, two spies enter the court of the Almohad Khalifah

Spy: "My Lord, the Castilians are planning an invasion, they are going to attack the Navarrese tonight!!"

The two Spies are looking very smug, until an emissary bursts into the court out of breath...

Emissary: "The cas... cas... THE CASTILIANS ARE COMING!!!!"

Khalifah turns to look at the two spies, whom are hoping that the ground will swallow them up...

Khalifah: "What a pair of muppets..."

[drone]

OT - Caravel, you just got a promotion, right? Congrats, and well deserved.