I lost

[FactionHeir]

Actually the chance decreases with every family member present. Troop count doesn't seem to affect it anymore as it used to in RTW.

Too bad the AI gets a MOTH even without fighting battles. So they never tend to die out unless you kill them quick enough that the only remaning family members had their share of 4 offspring already which are all dead.

[LordKhaine]

You do tend to get several turns before another family members turns up. But it's hard to assassinate members simply because any failure and they quickly gain traits to protect against assassination attempts. The plus side is you can drive them insane by repeated assassination attempts. In my current Milan game, Venice has 3 family members. Two of them are insane.

Also noticed that getting caught trying to murder someone *massively* drains your reputation. Far more so than declaring war due to an attack. So with this in mind it's hard to effectively use assassins against a neutral or allied faction.

[gardibolt]

If you're way short of family members, just send an general-less army up against a similar-sized or larger army. You should get a MOTH.

[dopp]

Actually the chance decreases with every family member present. Troop count doesn't seem to affect it anymore as it used to in RTW.

According to my research into assassination chances, troop count does affect it, in fact it is the ONLY thing that affects base assassination chance of family members, before personal security and spies are taken into account.