A chavez topic

[Tribesman]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6560197.stm
Any thoughts about Chavez change of policy on the sugar/fuel projects ?

[rory_20_uk]

Self interest. He wants to be the big player in South America, with de facto control with the oil pipeline. Ethanol / biofuels takes away his lead, giving it more to Brazil.

Plus he needs the high oil prices.

[Odin]

Self interest. He wants to be the big player in South America, with de facto control with the oil pipeline. Ethanol / biofuels takes away his lead, giving it more to Brazil.

Plus he needs the high oil prices.

Well said rory. i would like to add one more item. Brazil has a development accord with the U.S. for the biofuels (I dont know the specs of the agreement). I think all the things you said are true, with that one little thorn thrown in there, chavez truly is anti american and wants an independent bloc of south american countries outside the sphere of U.S. influence.

apparantly Brazil didnt get the memo

[Tribesman]

Self interest. He wants to be the big player in South America, with de facto control with the oil pipeline.

yep , though the change in policy is more to do with someone else entering the equation .

. Ethanol / biofuels takes away his lead, giving it more to Brazil.

If that were so then how was the old deal being done , the old policy involved Venezuelan investment in Brazilian State owned and private sugar/ethanol companies and those same Brazilian companies investing and developing Venezuelas sugar/ethanol industry .
It cannot be the .....the use of ethanol as a biofuel would use up valuable arable land and increase food prices....line either as Venezuela cannot produce sufficient sugar for its domestic market , and hasn't been able to for many decades , that is being dealt with by the modernisation of the carribean sugar industy by Venezuelan investment in return for cheap guaranteed imports .
It would certainly appear that the only reason for his change in policy is the US involvement .

[Ice]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6560197.stm
Any thoughts about Chavez change of policy on the sugar/fuel projects ?

I would suspect this is a large part of it:

Brazil recently signed an alliance with the US to promote ethanol production.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It would certainly appear that the only reason for his change in policy is the US involvement.

So far this seems likely to be the best explanation.

Sad, really. It's not a wise basis for policy in realpolitik terms, and given our propensity for tossing out administrations after no more than 12 years, it doesn't even speak to securing a means of influencing U.S. policy over the long haul -- vindictiveness against one U.S. admin does not mean winning points with the successors, and even if it did, the successorts are only there for so long anyway.

[BigTex]

Brazil recently signed an alliance with the US to promote ethanol production.

Quoted for the truth. Little else matters to that man more then having a pissing contest with the USA. Not to mention that higher uses of ethanol would lower their profits, two birds with one stone and all.

[JAG]

Realpolitik.

Dare I say it, the same kind of realpolitik Bush underwent when agreeing the ethanol agreement with Brazil in the first place.

It is politics after all.

[Tribesman]

Wierd , both Rory and Tex mention the effect on profits , how is that the case ?
Venezuela subsidises very heavily its domestic fuel supply , the deal with Brazil was for both importing Brazilian ehthanol and producing its own domestic supply , this would reduce its domestic petroleum consumption would it not , which would free that petroleum for export .
Apart from the special deals it has with some countries the exported petrol is not subsidised by Venezuela , so how would the ethanol program have reduced profits considering the expected increases in Asian oil consumption and the oil export deals Venezuela has made in that region ?

Quoted for the truth. Little else matters to that man more then having a pissing contest with the USA.

The same could be said for the current US administration , considering the relations between Chavez , De Silva and Washington . The US/Brazilian deal is a pissing contest in the face of the Venezuelan/Brazilian deal .
So is the US deal actually of much benefit to America , or is it just an attempt to annoy Chavez ?

[rory_20_uk]

Venezuela exports masses of fuel. The worth of this allows the home subsidy.

[Xiahou]

Venezuela is the region's only member of the oil-producers' cartel Opec and Mr Chavez opposes the use of ethanol.

No, really?

yep , though the change in policy is more to do with someone else entering the equation .

Who does Venezuela export most of their oil to? Certainly Chavez would be concerned about another country making major alternative fuel deals with the US. Predictably, he wraps up his self-interest in typical anti-American rhetoric.

[Tribesman]

Venezuela exports masses of fuel. The worth of this allows the home subsidy.

So how could domestic production and consumption of ethanol negatively affect profits from exports considering the limited global scale of the bio-fuel production ?
Don't forget the policy Chavez has abandoned was to reduce domestic petroleum consumption and increase exports .

[Tribesman]

No, really?

Its funny , you quote a passage from the article , yet that article completely ignores the 5 year ethanol development deal with Brazil signed by Chavez last ausgust .

Who does Venezuela export most of their oil to?

Places other than the US But what you mean is which single country is the largest importer of Venezuelan oil and it will remain so until the pipelines and terminals are built and the Chinese deal comes into play .

Certainly Chavez would be concerned about another country making major alternative fuel deals with the US.

Certainly , but it isn't only Venezuela , 2 other countries have also pulled out of the deal with Brazil .

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So is the US deal actually of much benefit to America , or is it just an attempt to annoy Chavez ?

Economically, no. It's more expensive to do the ethanol thing than it is to exploit known reserves etc. Politically, it lets the administration throw a sop to the enviro-republicans and claim they're actually "doing something" about dependency on foreign oil. More political theater than actual substance if you ask me.

[Adrian II]

So is the US deal actually of much benefit to America , or is it just an attempt to annoy Chavez ?

Heh, well spotted, and a well-made thread, Tribesman.

Almost without smileys, totally without hateful comments... See, you can do it.

[Tribesman]

More political theater than actual substance if you ask me.

Smoke and mirrors theatre , from both Venezuela and the US .

Heh, well spotted, and a well-made thread, Tribesman.

Can you spot the real "reasoning" behind the moves ?
Considering that Venezuela isn't actually cancelling the ethanol project it is massively scaling it back .
It has more to do with a sugar producing country that doesn't have oil that was going to get most benefit out of the deal until the US intervened with the company that owns the technology for the planned refineries .

[Don Corleone]

I think Tribesman actually may be onto something here. My gut reaction is it's all about getting the current administration in Brazil (which I thought was pretty left leaning) to go all-in with Chavez against the US or not. The US basically bribed Brazil into removing themselves from the anti-US coalition that Chavez is trying to build in Latin America, and Chavez wants to make it clear to those parties in Brazil that their decision will not be without consequence. I see the funding cutback as a largely symbolic act, that from here on out, Venezulea is loosing it's sense of goodwill towards Brazil.

Interesting side note, I spied a headline (no time to follow up on it) that ethanol actually produces more in the way of greenhouse gasses and smog then refined petroleum products. Any truth to that?

[drone]

Interesting side note, I spied a headline (no time to follow up on it) that ethanol actually produces more in the way of greenhouse gasses and smog then refined petroleum products. Any truth to that?

I believe this is true for corn-based ethanol, when including the fuel using in the harvesting/processing (overall emissions). Engines using ethanol need more fuel per mile as well, but this act alone should be carbon-neutral when combined with the growing process. Don't know about smog and other emissions, I guess that would depend on the engines and the pollution controls. Might be a problem with flex fuel engines, since they can't be optimized for a specific fuel type.

Sugarcane is more efficient for ethanol production, so the harvesting energy costs are not a factor. Corn ethanol = pure politics. Maybe we should make nice with the Cubans now, don't they grow sugarcane?

[rory_20_uk]

Help the Caribbean Islands. They can produce a lot of sugarcane - enough for the moment in any case. And Brazil has enough land for a while. Cuba is tiny by comparison.

I guess the thinking is if you're paying for corn via subsidies in any case, might as well use it rather than dump it.

[Tribesman]

Maybe we should make nice with the Cubans now, don't they grow sugarcane?

Thats the thing.....

It has more to do with a sugar producing country that doesn't have oil that was going to get most benefit out of the deal until the US intervened with the company that owns the technology for the planned refineries .

.....Cuba was the country that was going to get the most real benefit from the old deal . It would appear that the US deal is more aimed at screwing Cuba than Venezuela or Nicuragua .

[Don Corleone]

That could just be our old friend, the Law of Unintended Consequences. I seriously doubt that ole Fidel, or Raul for that matter, get much attention in Washington circles, except maybe from speechwriters and Cuban-American lobbyists.

I'm not saying it's not possible. Sure, we could be setting our entire Western Hemisphere diplomatic initiatives and potentially alienating the 'Farm Vote' here at home just poke Fidel in the eye one more time before he takes his dirt nap, but I doubt it. Seems like we could accomplish similar results with much less effort.

I think we decided we didn't like this new informal organization of Lefty leaning Latin American countries and bribed #2 to piss off #1, ending the cooperation between the two. Seems to have been pretty effective, assuming that was indeed the goal.

[Tribesman]

I think we decided we didn't like this new informal organization of Lefty leaning Latin American countries and bribed #2 to piss off #1, ending the cooperation between the two. Seems to have been pretty effective, assuming that was indeed the goal.

I could have sworn Chavez and de silva had a little joint petro-chem plant development ceremony today , that lefty coca farmer Morales was there too .
Venezuela has not cancelled the ethanol project with Brazil , just scaled it back . Castro and Ortega are the ones that are out of it , but neither is laying any blame on Brazil for the problem . The blame is being directed at Americas anti-cuba policies , not a great time for those policies to be highlighted considering the regional gathering starting tomorrow .

[Don Corleone]

I stand corrected. As usual, I bow to your superior websurfing skills. I am curious though why a package of benefits the USA bestowed upon Brazil would impact the relationship between Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

So, to add even further to an already helpful and interesting thread, perhaps you could lay down the Socratic method for a moment and actually spell out your views on the matter? Clearly, we're not heading to the conclusions to which your leading questions are apparently intended to herd us...

From what I can gather of what you've said so far... the USA is responsible for the end of a joint ethanol development project. The reason the project ended is that despite how much Chavez hates the US, American anti-Cuba restrictions would hamstring the project. For some reason you've yet to iterate, Chavez has decided that American backing of the project is more important than his ties to Castro and Morales. And somehow, in the end, all of this is the fault of the USA, though I'm left at a loss as to how.

[Del Arroyo]

Chavez is.................. an ?

Seriously though, interesting thread.

[Tribesman]

Del you could just have written Chavez is a politician , its the same thing really .

From what I can gather of what you've said so far... the USA is responsible for the end of a joint ethanol development project. The reason the project ended is that despite how much Chavez hates the US, American anti-Cuba restrictions would hamstring the project.For some reason you've yet to iterate, Chavez has decided that American backing of the project is more important than his ties to Castro and Morales. And somehow, in the end, all of this is the fault of the USA, though I'm left at a loss as to how.

(Morales has nothing to do with this , thats a seperate issue for now)
Yep it appears that the threat of action under Helms against the company with the new technology is a pretty major obstacle , the company is state owned . The threat of legal action is not too good a prospect for the Brazilian government . Its funny really since the Venezuelan party in the project is also state owned , but the US needs to keep them onside and Venezuela still needs the US revenue so no action or threat of action there is going to come to anything . What it boils down to is that Brazil needs the US more than it needs Cuba but it also needs Venezuela , while Venezuela and the US need each other for now but Venezuelas government is idologically tied to Cuba so it isn't going to stiff them (though in all honesty Venezuela gets far more benefit out of his "lets help Cuba " deals than Cuba does ).

Now keep in mind the huge amount of money the US spent wrecking the Cuban economy , especially its main industry ...sugar .
The new project and the brazilian technology would have given a real boost to Cubas existing diversification away from the sugar market into the bio-fuel market . Certain people in America do not like that prospect (isn't it funny that the Bush fella down in Florida is one of the few talking about this episode ) .

Now the important part Don , timing .

Perhaps it is just a coincidence that they waited a month to make a big fuss over it , perhaps it is because of the regional conference about to start . Would they by any chance be aiming to go to the carribean/Latin amercan meeting and painting the US deal as American interference and selective application of its laws as against the economic interests of the region ?
Would they actually have a very valid point that they can sell to the other countries ?
And how will the succesful selling (if they sell it) of this point affect Americas trade interests in the region ?

Oh and BTW

I am curious though why a package of benefits the USA bestowed upon Brazil would impact the relationship between Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Could you think of a reason why the current government of Nicuragua would have a reason to be more "hostile" to the US administration than the government of Venezuela is ?

Is that less Socratic enough for ya ?

[Don Corleone]

I think I follow, but I fail to see why you're blaming the US for acting unethically (no you haven't used those exact terms). So long as we're not engaging in graft or corruption to do it, shouldn't we be allowed to use our foreign aid and investment in multi-national deals to advance policies we think will be good for us in the long run? I'll grant you, we are starting to look like ole' Captain Ahab looking for his white whale when it comes to Cuba, but even so, who says we have to start treating Cuba with benevolent neglect?

[Tribesman]

So long as we're not engaging in graft or corruption to do it, shouldn't we be allowed to use our foreign aid and investment in multi-national deals to advance policies we think will be good for us in the long run?

The question is Don , is it good for you in the long run ?
I like the Captain Ahab line , but the white whale is regional not just Cuba and a long line of policies that they thought were good for them in the long run have left a huge spread of irritating harpoons that can be harmful not beneficial in the long run .

[rory_20_uk]

So, bribes are bad... But aid packages with no strings attached are fine. Sounds like the same thing to me.

I fail to see why there is still the hostility to Cuba. Without a backer it's just a small impoverished island.

[drone]

I fail to see why there is still the hostility to Cuba. Without a backer it's just a small impoverished island.

They are teh EVIL COMMUNISTAS!!!!!one!!!eleven!

Actually, it's got more to do with the Cuban exile community/lobby and a grudge. Throw in industry interests for flavor. Petty at this point, if you ask me.

[Stig]

quite off-topic, but I kinda like Chavez for this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TI0_VzFxTzs

atleast he says something against Bush