Early exit polls seem to indicate FF in a strong position.

Election 2007: Exit poll good news for FF

Friday, 25 May 2007 08:18

An RTÉ exit poll suggests that Fianna Fáil will win almost exactly the same share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase its vote by around 4%.

The poll, carried out by Lansdowne Market Research, shows decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, while the Greens and Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have made a major breakthrough.

While the current coalition parties have a lead over the alternative, the final result is likely to be close and to be determined by transfers.

On this morning's Morning Ireland programme, RTÉ Political Correspondent David McCullagh said just after they voted yesterday, 3,000 people at 166 polling stations in every constituency in the country were asked how they voted.

The poll has a margin of error of 2.5%, but after the last election, the RTÉ/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll proved to be extremely accurate.

It got the national first preference totals correct to within around one percentage point.

The experts have been crunching the numbers all night, and the results are as follows:

Fianna Fáil is on 41.6% - marginally above what it won in the last election

Fine Gael is on 26.3%, almost 4% ahead of its 2002 result

Potential coalition partner Labour has slipped 1% from the last time, down to 9.9%

The PDs look to be in serious trouble, down to 2.6%, a 1 1/2% drop from 2002

The Greens are up 1%, but will be disappointed to be at just 4.8%

There appears to be no big breakthrough for Sinn Féin, also up just under 1% to 7.3%

Independents and others are down nearly 3% at 7.5%

Of course, the first preference vote does not give a cast-iron indication of how many seats will be won.

Fianna Fáil got a huge seat bonus in the last election and the shape of the next Government may still be determined by transfers.



Quote Originally Posted by KukriKhan
How much money changes hands in a typical ROI election? I don't mean the mechanical, 'run the election' cash, I mean the influence money. Can a ROI politician get rich as a politician? Can her vote, after being put into office, be bought by those who supported her? How about after her term - can she go to work for her election supporters without hindrence?
Sorry Kukri, but I have to give in to a temptation to a Tribesman moment:



Ahem. We have some of the most corrupt politicians in the Western world with their little fiefdoms. I'm sure someone can tell you the approximate sums, but I'd be willing to bet much of the US problem is down to heritage from Irish and Italians immigrants bringing their methods to politics over the pond.

And no-one seems to care - witness Mr Ahern on his way back.