Taxes on VH alone won't cause too many settlements (except the overpopulated and undergarrisoned cities which are far from the capital) to riot. You modding the settlement mechanics file too?
As for how Hans would deal with it. Draconian I suppose. He's already been persecuting Lutherans in Swabia (and given orders for all to do so) for several years with no problems.
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Another thought on success chance would be to include the governor's (or rather the count of the settlement's even if he is not currently in) traits in the calculation. I.e. a poor administrator is more likely to cause more troubles. Similarly, a publically loved general may have good chances of quelling the masses.
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