Turkey Recalls Ambassador Over Genocide Resolution

[Ironside]

One US political pundit has opined that the recent foray by Congress into a condemnation of the Armenian genocide (our 2nd or 3rd thereof) was done to:

1. Piss off Turkey so that

2. Turkey would invade and hammer the Kurdish militant/terrorists and thereby

3. Screw up Iraq and the fledgling successes of the last few months therein allowing the

4. Democrat party to keep hammering Bush and undercut ANY chance of him claiming success in Iraq because the key thing to do is harm G. W. Bush.

Thoughts? Plausible scenario?

Why is a key thing to hammer G.W. "president with lowest ratings ever" Bush? He's pretty much politically dead nowadays from what I've understood. Anyone competent enough to pull this off would be looking at least onto the next election.

You can probably run something in the lines of pushing a withdrawal before the next election or getting the situation so bad that it's blatantly obvious that retreat is the only practical option, if you want to find a conspiracy theory though.

Tinfoil hatesque? Get real, of course this is what they are doing. But who cars if it gets more of our troops killed as long as it keeps your favorite party in power right Lemur. I wish you guys and your political leaders on the left didn't "support the troops" so much.

You mean like the support the troops have gotten from Bush & company? The Iraqi war and aftermatch have been a political game since day one, with Americans and Iraqis paying for it with thier blood. And US taxpayers paying the money.

[Devastatin Dave]

You mean like the support the troops have gotten from Bush & company? The Iraqi war and aftermatch have been a political game since day one, with Americans and Iraqis paying for it with thier blood. And US taxpayers paying the money.

Again, the democrats are as much to blame for this. They voted FOR this. They have an obligation to truelly support the troops, not attept to get their supply lines cut. I can't believe that for a bunch of Total War armchair generals posting here can't see the obvious strategic move that the dems are making. If I'm paying the bill I want to win, not leave my guys with their ####s in the wind with no suplly line.

[Lemur]

The plot thickens. Also looks like some of the Congressional Dems are waking up to the possible consequences of this empty vote.

Although a Congressional committee has supported the motion, its chances of passing a full vote appear to be waning.

Key Democrats in the US House of Representatives have joined Republicans to warn that US strategic interests could be damaged by the largely symbolic resolution.

[Husar]

There we go, but what I don't understand that well is why Turkey is necessary for supplies? Can't they just deliver the supplies directly to Iraq?
Iraq has ports and airports for such deliveries or are they somehow not able to use them for supply shipments? I understand a lot of the US Air Force is stationed in Turkey as the planes would probably be targeted by mortars etc if stationed in Iraq, but supplies?

[Lemur]

There we go, but what I don't understand that well is why Turkey is necessary for supplies? Can't they just deliver the supplies directly to Iraq?

At the moment the majority of our supplies transship Turkey. Certainly we could route things in other ways, but it would be inconvenient and troublesome to do so.

On the other hand, if Turkey were to attempt to prevent us from using their ports and airfields for shipping, this would be seen as a direct provocation, just short of declaring war. It's hard to picture the Turks denying FedEx and the U.S. military air rights unless they intended to begin open military conflict with the U.S.A.

Don't forget that Turkey believed we would never invade Iraq unless we could do so with a northern front, which is why they denied us the option of moving troops in from the north at the last minute. They believed they could veto the second Iraq war, and they were wrong.

Open hostilities between Turkey and the U.S.A. would be a disaster for both of us, no matter what extremist politicians may say when pandering to their base. Which isn't to say it can't happen, eh? Just ask Gary Busey and Billy Zane.

[Devastatin Dave]

extremist politicians

You mean Nancy and Reid are extremists? Aren't they the leaders of the Congress and the Senate? Can you possibly understand the significance of this? And who are these "key" democrats stated in the article? It must be getting hard on the arms carrying so much water for your boys and girls in Congress huh Lemur....

[drone]

There we go, but what I don't understand that well is why Turkey is necessary for supplies? Can't they just deliver the supplies directly to Iraq?
Iraq has ports and airports for such deliveries or are they somehow not able to use them for supply shipments? I understand a lot of the US Air Force is stationed in Turkey as the planes would probably be targeted by mortars etc if stationed in Iraq, but supplies?

Air space. Iraq has a small coastline, accessible through the Persian Gulf only. To get there from the West, slow freighters would need to take the Med/Suez route around the Arabian penisula, or go around Africa. Either one would also need to go past the Strait of Hormuz, under Iranian missiles. To fly in supplies without Turkish permission, we would need to fly through Syrian, Iranian, Jordanian, or Saudi airspace. Permission to fly US arms through any of those would be unlikely, at best.

[Kralizec]

Oh and as I'm posting this, it appears that the Turkish government are voting on whether or not to invade northern Iraq at this hour. Unbelievable....

That issue has been on for a while, before the whole "genocide resolution" thing. I imagine that at this point the Turkish government will be less reluctant to attack the Kurds in north Iraq, since a similar resolution might be proposed and passed should that eventuality occur.

[Komutan]

That issue has been on for a while, before the whole "genocide resolution" thing. I imagine that at this point the Turkish government will be less reluctant to attack the Kurds in north Iraq, since a similar resolution might be proposed and passed should that eventuality occur.

The two issues are only slightly linked. For Turkey, PKK is a much more serious problem than the genocide bill. No matter what USA does about the genocide, Turkey will not tolerate PKK attacking from northern Iraq.

[Ironside]

Again, the democrats are as much to blame for this. They voted FOR this. They have an obligation to truelly support the troops, not attept to get their supply lines cut.

I would say that the one creating the bandwagon needs more blame than the ones jumping on it (that's still bad though).

I can't believe that for a bunch of Total War armchair generals posting here can't see the obvious strategic move that the dems are making.

There's more than one way to move in supplies, so I doubt that the troops will suffer supply depletion. It will probably cost more though.

If I'm paying the bill I want to win, not leave my guys with their ####s in the wind with no suplly line.

Point is, you did never pay enough to win and the limited resources where wasted thanks to general screw-ups on a lot of stages.

So now you can choose into either massivly increase resources (a polictical suecide and won't go thruogh congress as both parties will shut that down).

Or continue as now in a nice quagmire (where even with greater success militarily, the harder political part is still left. Applies for the first option as well).

Or cut and run. With the effects that will mean (a definite reputation loss, a possible increase for imported terrorism (for short to medium term), poor days of being an Iraqi, better days of being in US military, etc, etc.

Lovely choises aren't they?

The big question though is if keeping the current situation is supporting the troops?

[Devastatin Dave]

So Ironside, it makes more sense to make a difficult situation more difficult for the troops by alienating an allie and having them cut off the main supply line? Do you not understand that most supplies come out of Turkey for the troops? I'm so thankful I'm no longer in the military, my country and its citizens are no longer worthy of protection and neither is the rest of the world. The rest of the world is only happy when the US signs the check and sits silent. I hope that we pull back every troop in every country AND cut all foriegn aid. That is what needs to be done. We'll see how long it takes for all hell to break loose. I just hope I live that long to see it.

[Lemur]

DevDave, the situation between Turkey and the U.S.A. is worrysome, and bears watching, but I'm not understanding the basis for your increasingly shrill and hysterical comments. And what sort of sense does it make to declare "my country and its citizens are no longer worthy of protection" in the middle of a thread where you're accusing others of being unpatriotic, back-stabbing surrender monkeys?

Ease up on the freak-out, friend.

Drone, wouldn't a total denial of airspace be seen as a pretty extreme measure at this point? Especially given the security relationship between Israel, Turkey and the U.S.A.?

[Devastatin Dave]

DevDave, the situation between Turkey and the U.S.A. is worrysome, and bears watching, but I'm not understanding the basis for your increasingly shrill and hysterical comments. And what sort of sense does it make to declare "my country and its citizens are no longer worthy of protection" in the middle of a thread where you're accusing others of being unpatriotic, back-stabbing surrender monkeys?

Ease up on the freak-out, friend.

A.?

I'm just very very PISSED about this and how the media and many on your side of the political spectrum refuse to connect the dots on this.

[Lemur]

Look, if the genocide vote was, in fact, a conspiracy to push Turkey into invading Iraq, then Democratic lawmakers would be pleased with Turkey's new belligerence, correct? And they would push the vote through regardless, since a new war would be their aim.

In fact, the opposite is happening.

Worried about antagonizing Turkish leaders, House members from both parties have begun to withdraw their support from a resolution supported by the Democratic leadership that would condemn as genocide the mass killings of Armenians nearly a century ago.

Almost a dozen lawmakers had shifted against the measure over the last 24 hours, accelerating a sudden exodus that has cast deep doubt over the measure’s prospects.

I hate to repeat myself, but never ascribe to conspiracy that which can be explained by incompetence. Large conspiracies are difficult to coordinate and almost impossible to conceal. Groups of people behaving stupidly, however, are as common as dirt.

DevDave, I have never said that I thought the genocide resolution was a good idea (in fact, I have stated the opposite). All I have argued was that lack of planning and brains was a more likely explanation than a plot to destroy America. If this makes me Nancy Pelosi's secret cabin boy in your eyes, then what's to say? Much like your chosen political party, you are defining your circle of friends in ever-diminishing radii.

[drone]

Drone, wouldn't a total denial of airspace be seen as a pretty extreme measure at this point? Especially given the security relationship between Israel, Turkey and the U.S.A.?

Extreme, yes. I'm sure they would allow wounded/KIA flights back to Germany. But closing the border on the ground and disallowing flights with military supplies or airborne sorties into Iraq would not be beyond the realm of imagination.

For those of you that think this would not be that big of a deal, go to GoogleMaps and look at Iraq and the surrounding area. Combine the political boundaries with the political realities, and the current effort would be in a world of hurt.

I don't think the Democrats are smart enough or organized enough to deliberately sabotage Bush (and the troops) through this measure. And don't forget, we are talking about the House of Representatives, not exactly the most savvy individuals when it comes to foreign affairs. All they see are potential votes, not long-term ramifications.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Good to see our lawmakers back-pedaling a bit and trying to reassert SOME modicum of rationality.

My read on Turkey -- based on articles provided during other discussions in this forum -- is that Turkey is dead-gum serious about this issue and view themselves as having exercised a lot of forbearance already in not having gone into Kurdish Iraq with heavy firepower already. Turks appear to have a strong sense of national identity and to be very touchy about the events of 1918-1919.

U.S. lawmaker's have this wonderful ability to operate in a bubble at times -- and they're NOT members of the executive branch with layers of cut-outs etc. Get them inside the Beltway and they start to mentally implode.

[Ironside]

So Ironside, it makes more sense to make a difficult situation more difficult for the troops by alienating an allie and having them cut off the main supply line? Do you not understand that most supplies come out of Turkey for the troops? I'm so thankful I'm no longer in the military, my country and its citizens are no longer worthy of protection and neither is the rest of the world. The rest of the world is only happy when the US signs the check and sits silent. I hope that we pull back every troop in every country AND cut all foriegn aid. That is what needs to be done. We'll see how long it takes for all hell to break loose. I just hope I live that long to see it.

Depends on goal and aviable resources. If you consider the best move is to change policy, while not being able to change policy, then the other option is to force a policy change in another way. Forcing the supplies to take another way is a (severe) annoyance, but not a vital blow.
Do you agree that if you would consider Iraq as a lost cause in either case, forcing a faster retreat would be actually caring about the troops dieing needlessly?
If you still think that you can win, it's another matter, but when did people decide something based on someone elses view?

This is pure speculation btw DD. The factual reasons can be more politically stupid, a mark, a more advanced plan etc.