Insurgency warfare has two patterns that develope once the government/occupation forces gain the upper hand. They either begin to wither and decay because they can not substain the pace - ie they were not as popular as they thought, or they become much worse when they have had the chance to regroup.

What we dont know from the media reports that I have seen, is if pressure is still being applied to the insurgent forces in such a manner that they have no ability to organize beyond the small cell operations that sucide bombings and spread out IED attacks.

If the people of Iraq are indeed fed up with the insurgency and are cooperating with the Iraqi police and the US Army - then the downturn in violence should gain momentum. If the people are only wanting to catch their breath and have a chance to regroup - then there will be pure hell to pay later.

Al Sadr's cease fire would be an indication of how the people will react, will he renew the cease fire - an indication that the people are not willing to support the zealots any longer. Will he expire the cease fire and not renew attacks on the government and the US Army - another indiciation that the people are tired of warfare, or will it come down to more violence?

THe way I see it if the reducation of violence is based upon the Iraqi people the first two are the most likely outcome, if its only based upon the increase of US troops - then the third option will be the outcome.

Its a gamble but the odds are slightly in the favor of a moderate type of peace with limited violence happening. The more stable Iraq can be made - the lower the likelyhood of violence escalating beyond the current level.