Bush Right After All?

[Boyar Son]

well, no bad news from Iraq that I can think of...it seems the surge worked. I dont hear car bombing of troop deaths in Iraq....

Is Iraq peaceful now?

Mission Acomplished?

[FactionHeir]

25 deaths in Iraq for January, which is quite low. Most recent troop death was Saturday.

Still, considering all those other operations that go on and that most attacks are suicide bombings, how long until they run out of people to send off? Also, the question is whether it is the "surge" that worked or whether it is the pro-US Terror Sunnis (Awakening Council etc) rising against the anti-US Terror Sunnis (AQ, local resistance). Add into that the sectarian strife, and that pretty much is the picture.

[Rodion Romanovich]

It's hardly "the surge", but the complete change of strategy in other aspects, especially in how to try and communicate, understand and cooperate with the locals, which has made the difference, and it would most likely have worked wonders even without a "surge". So the answer to your question is no. As for the final outcome, there's much left to do, and it's a little bit too early to cheer, however the current situation seems promising if the continuation takes advantage of the now arising opportunities. The whole oil stuff in Iraq hardly makes the Iraqis like the occupying forces even now, but now they're at least trying to and successfully managing to become more popular than the crazy random civilian bombers, which makes a big difference to their amount of success. The future of Iraq and Iraqi-American and Iraqi-British relations is still unknown.

[Lemur]

Ahem.

[Adrian II]

Is Iraq peaceful now?

Yes, Iraq is peaceful. Go to sleep now.

[Tribesman]

well, no bad news from Iraq that I can think of...it seems the surge worked. I dont hear car bombing of troop deaths in Iraq....

Well think ...and listen .
Its only just over half way through the month and there are already more than last month .
But hey its working , its amazing what you can do if you treble the number of patrols and increase by sevenfold the number of checkpoints .

The situation in Iraq has improved, yes. Which, considering the bottomless pit of hell it was, is perhaps neither surprising nor much to be jubilant about.

True , its a matter of if it can be maintained and if the Mahdi army decide to extend their temporary ceasefire .

Still, considering all those other operations that go on and that most attacks are suicide bombings, how long until they run out of people to send off?

If this month carries on like it is then the number of suicide bombings will exceed each of the past 8 monthly totals

[Louis VI the Fat]

Mission Acomplished?

Yes, like a person who got in a terrible car crash and the ambulance crew finally managed to stelp that gushing artery wound. Now to attend to those guts spread out over the pavement...

The situation in Iraq has improved, yes. Which, considering the bottomless pit of hell it was, is perhaps neither surprising nor much to be jubilant about.

But it is something, that much is true. Cynicism alone is also misplaced.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Cynicism alone is also misplaced.

I think we will continue to see improvements in Iraq and, in time, a significant draw down of US forces as Iraq regains more and more stability and real self-governance. My 13-year old is likely to be done with college by then, but I do believe we will get there.

Bush is to be credited with hanging in there and never giving up despite the opposition. His administration should also be credited with [finally?] listening to Patreaus [sic?] and providing the wherewithal to make a difference.

Plenty of blame to go around of course as well.

Was Iraq the best "next step" in the WoT when the balloon went up?

-- quite debatable.

Was sufficient planning in place to handle the problems associated with a post-Saddam Iraq once the inevitable crushing of Saddam's military was achieved?

-- I think it is pretty clear that this step could've been done better. As in, someone might actually have wanted to DO THIS BEFORE KICKING OVER THE %*!!@^# APPLE CART.

It might have been nicer had the conflict actually been "sold" to us on its real merits as opposed to --at the least -- overhyped and unconfirmable threats of WMDs.

[Geoffrey S]

Iraq is getting to the point where the goals before the invasion can actually be implemented, though just heaping the praise on the surge is probably more what Washington wants the world to see rather than the progress between Iraqi groups. Several years too late, true, but it seems that the Bush administration has at least learned from its horrendous mistakes enough to clear them up... it's a shame that the leading Democrats, who at a wild hunch I'd say have more chance of winning the elections than their Republican opponents, don't seem to have heeded those lessons at all and would prefer to remove the ambulance crew after the bleeding has been stopped, to hijack Louis' metaphor.

[Papewaio]

in place to handle the problems associated with a post-Saddam Iraq once the inevitable crushing of Saddam's military was achieved?

-- I think it is pretty clear that this step could've been done better. As in, someone might actually have wanted to DO THIS BEFORE KICKING OVER THE %*!!@^# APPLE CART.

it is a good general rule in life that if you can't fix it, don't break it.

A lot of business plans start with the exit strategy and then build from there.

[spmetla]

I think we will continue to see improvements in Iraq and, in time, a significant draw down of US forces as Iraq regains more and more stability and real self-governance. My 13-year old is likely to be done with college by then, but I do believe we will get there.

Bush is to be credited with hanging in there and never giving up despite the opposition. His administration should also be credited with [finally?] listening to Patreaus [sic?] and providing the wherewithal to make a difference.

Plenty of blame to go around of course as well.

Was Iraq the best "next step" in the WoT when the balloon went up?

-- quite debatable.

Was sufficient planning in place to handle the problems associated with a post-Saddam Iraq once the inevitable crushing of Saddam's military was achieved?

-- I think it is pretty clear that this step could've been done better. As in, someone might actually have wanted to DO THIS BEFORE KICKING OVER THE %*!!@^# APPLE CART.

It might have been nicer had the conflict actually been "sold" to us on its real merits as opposed to --at the least -- overhyped and unconfirmable threats of WMDs.

It amazes me how much your point of view is almost identical to mine on this issue. This last year has taken me from being pessimistic to cautiously optomistic. I just hope with the current improving trend in Iraq the next president doesn't screw everything up by making drastic unnecessary changes.

[KukriKhan]

Bush Right After All?

Of course he was. Iraq had WMD's and we got 'em. Dad skipped Saddam's overthrow, but we fixed that too, with a fair trial and dignified sentence. Baghdad and Kabul greeted us liberators with flowers, and are now shining beacons of democratic freedom, spreading American values throughout their regions.

Osama bL is tucked away in a quiet cell in Kansas, fully repentant of his errors, now that he's found Jesus. Record numbers of Americans own their own homes and have good jobs to pay for them. Businesses are flocking to our shores. Europe loves us, grateful for our guidance. Africa begs us to repeat our Iraq & Afghanistan success there. Asia can't wait to throw down their nukyuler ambitions and join the US-led brotherhood of nations. Americans trust their government more than ever before.

Yup. Mission accomplished. Cue the aircraft carrier.

[Navaros]

I've heard many reports since the War on Iraq started that say "things have turned around now", which were then contradicted a few months later by reports like "this has been the worst month since 2004".

So no, Bush wasn't right. It remains to be seen if the current effect will last.

And anyhow the only reason violence is down is because of Insurgents turning on each other to ally with the US army --- it has nothing to do with "the surge" whatsoever. But chances are eventually a lot of them are gonna turn their guns on the US army in the not too distant future.

[Husar]

Of course he was. Iraq had WMD's and we got 'em. Dad skipped Saddam's overthrow, but we fixed that too, with a fair trial and dignified sentence. Baghdad and Kabul greeted us liberators with flowers, and are now shining beacons of democratic freedom, spreading American values throughout their regions.

Osama bL is tucked away in a quiet cell in Kansas, fully repentant of his errors, now that he's found Jesus. Record numbers of Americans own their own homes and have good jobs to pay for them. Businesses are flocking to our shores. Europe loves us, grateful for our guidance. Africa begs us to repeat our Iraq & Afghanistan success there. Asia can't wait to throw down their nukyuler ambitions and join the US-led brotherhood of nations. Americans trust their government more than ever before.

What a scary scenario Kukri, I heard the antichrist will make that happen.

Anyway, I guess it remains to be seen what will happen in Iraq, a bunch of indoctrinated, hateful suicide bombers is usually hard to appease and no I'm not referring to all Iraqis, just the indoctrinated, hateful suicide bombers.

[Pannonian]

I think we will continue to see improvements in Iraq and, in time, a significant draw down of US forces as Iraq regains more and more stability and real self-governance. My 13-year old is likely to be done with college by then, but I do believe we will get there.

The above scenario doesn't address the real issue with Iraq, and is actually an anti-solution, as far as the current situation goes. What happens to Iraq wrt its neighbours when the Americans leave? While there has been brinkmanship so far, the presence of an American garrison has so far staved off regional power games by the regional powers. What will happen when this deterrent goes and leaves behind a seriously weak Iraq? And if you beef up the Iraqi military, what are the chances of Iraq remaining amenable to western interests, or for that matter what are the chances of the Iraqi state holding together and not using that military against themselves?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The above scenario doesn't address the real issue with Iraq, and is actually an anti-solution, as far as the current situation goes. What happens to Iraq wrt its neighbours when the Americans leave? While there has been brinkmanship so far, the presence of an American garrison has so far staved off regional power games by the regional powers. What will happen when this deterrent goes and leaves behind a seriously weak Iraq? And if you beef up the Iraqi military, what are the chances of Iraq remaining amenable to western interests, or for that matter what are the chances of the Iraqi state holding together and not using that military against themselves?

Good queries.

Iraqi military strength must be improved; though I suspect we'll keep their birds relatively short-ranged with a minimal tanker fleet and their armor limited. We want a force that would be little offensive threat to their neighbors but clearly well-trained and equipped and a real hassle to overcome if on the defensive.

As this will take years, more time will be there for the (and admittedly most difficult component of a stable Iraq) coalesence of a new Iraqi state that does not emphasize its own sectarianism. This has not been and will not be an easy task.

Lastly, while I think the US presence will eventually be significantly drawn down, I suspect that we'll have some troop presence there for a very long time. Maybe it'll be the new permanent basing for the 1AD or something. As with Korea, the USA numbers are less significant per se than their presence in this scenario.


Instead, we'll likely end up with a Dem president, no permanent basing effort and a draw-down to advisors only by the end of that Presiden't first term. Unfortunately, I think that such a draw down would NOT provide the cushion necessary to address your valid concerns. Then the inanities of our early occupation -- which allowed too many issues to fester and worsen before we took real steps to deal with them -- will be compounded by the debacle of an ealry withdrawal and the accompanying fullup civil war (as opposed to the tentative one that's been winding down a bit of late).


Redleg: Excellent points, thank you.

[Redleg]

Instead, we'll likely end up with a Dem president, no permanent basing effort and a draw-down to advisors only by the end of that Presiden't first term. Unfortunately, I think that such a draw down would NOT provide the cushion necessary to address your valid concerns. Then the inanities of our early occupation -- which allowed too many issues to fester and worsen before we took real steps to deal with them -- will be compounded by the debacle of an ealry withdrawal and the accompanying fullup civil war (as opposed to the tentative one that's been winding down a bit of late).

This scenerio is also likely with any Republican President also. US politics gets very self-centered during election years with unpopular decisions of previous presidents forcing all to go toward the popular idea. We will face some very short sighted politicians who will compound our error of not providing adequate force for an occuppation to restore our overthrow of a regime.

Short sighted politics followed by another set of short sighted politics will only compound the problem and create more instability in the region with the vacumn we will create upon an unplanned and well executed withdraw from the country.

In short I see a failure of the surge and its consequent politicial success from our own internal politics because of the election year and the nature of the decision in the first place, starting out as lukewarm in the first place in the public opinion aspect and growing more and more unpopular.