U.S. Election '08: Race to the Conventions

[KukriKhan]

After consulting with several of the usual posters in the previous US election-threads, consensus was reached that we would keep US election-related information in a single thread - at least until the major party conventions in late summer.

So: here it is.

I'll now close the other threads.

Happy hunting. May the best candidate win!

[KukriKhan]

p.s. Moderators can add and remove polls, as requested. So let us know if you think one (poll) is appropriate.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Funny story, Clinton loaned her campaign $5 Million from her personal fortune yesterday, and Obama raised $6.5 Million through donations yesterday. The next 10 states favor him pretty heavily two. Most of them are either caucases or heavily black states.

[Lemur]

You can read up on Billary's sleazy contributors here. Good article.

[Vladimir]

Obama: The lesser of the two greater evils.

[Lemur]

Obama: The lesser of the two greater evils.

So sayeth the people who voted for George W. Bush twice.

Good video interview with Richard Brookheiser, Senior Editor of National Review.

-edit-

A couple of threads ago, Xiahou linked to National Journal's predictable press release that Obama and Hillary are teh most liberal Senators evar. He also linked to what they claimed was their methodology, which just happens to result in the Dem frontrunners being the most liberal people two presidential campaigns in a row. Doubtless they'll do the same thing in 2012, since it's working so well for them.

I linked to a liberal group, which also monitors Senate votes for the benefit of its granola-eating constituency, and which came to very different conclusions. Xiahou denounced this as "linking to a liberal blog," sniffed meningfully, re-donned his ascot and went back to his cognac.

To once again demonstrate how empty the National Journal's rankings are, I now present you with the American Conservative Union's ratings. Of particular interest: Their Senate Standouts. Note that their "Best of the Best" and "Worst of the Worst" don't include any of the candidates currently running for office. Interesting, is it not, that a group devoted to conservatism would arrive at such variant conclusions?

So we have the possibility that National Journal is just doing honest vote counts, and somehow wound up nominating the Democratic frontrunners as the most liberal Senators ever; or we have the possibility that National Journal (a well-respected magazine in a state of perpetual subscriber decline) got a nice bump when its ratings were used as national talking points four years ago, and is looking for the same thing this year.

[Vladimir]

I'll take squishy over evil any day.

PEOPLE OF THE WORLD UNITE! Break the mod monopoly!

[drone]

Rumors from the GOP party have it that Romney is going to "suspend" his campaign.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/02/...ign/index.html

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will suspend his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, GOP sources tell CNN.

Romney had won 270 delegates in through the Super Tuesday contests, compared with front-runner John McCain's 680.

Suspending a campaign has a different meaning depending on the party.

On the Republican side, decisions on how to allocate delegates is left to the state parties.
...
Romney is expected to announce his decision Thursday afternoon at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, three Republican sources told CNN.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefi...l?hpid=topnews

[Seamus Fermanagh]

So sayeth the people who voted for George W. Bush twice.

Lemur, be fair.

Dubya won twice because time #1 he faced A wooden indian who couldn't even charm a small majority of his home state and Nader siphoned off the really whackoid fringe. Didn't help that Billary had polarized everything and tarred Gore with their brush.

Duya then won time #2 facing a classic NE liberal patrician whose message, not surprisingly, fell on nearly deaf ears between the rockies and appalachians and anywhere south of the Mason-Dixon line (and still would have lost if 50k worth of votes shifted in ohio alone)

ANY compelling democrat who wasn't a rabid liberal would have beaten George in either contest. Gore wasn't compelling and Kerry was a waste of electoral time.

[drone]

Dubya won twice because time #1 he faced A wooden indian who couldn't even charm a small majority of his home state and Nader siphoned off the really whackoid fringe.

How many time do I have to say it? Gore won his home state, he got all 3 electoral votes from DC.

Edit-> and it's official, Romney in a speech told the Conservative Political Action Committee that's he's out to help the GOP's chances in the national election.

[Vladimir]

Why is Hick-a-bee still in?

[Spino]

Why is Hick-a-bee still in?

Because unlike Romney who was sensible enough to read and acknowledge the writing on the wall the Huckster's raging hidden ego won't let him quit...

Or... the Huckster is hanging around for a VP nod from McCain, which depending on the variables, could prove to be beneficial or harmful to McCain in the general election. McCain will get the Religious Right's vote no matter who he nominates as his running mate so I'm guessing the Huckster and all his political baggage would be a bad choice. The one luxury McCain has going for him against Billary or the Magic Negro is that the thought of either of them (or *shudders* both of them) running the Executive Branch makes conservatives of all stripes collectively crap their pants...

Yet another presidential election determined by fear of the alternative... how sad.

Someone please tell me what happened to the moderate voice of the Democratic Party? Was Lieberman the last of that breed before he jumped ship?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Because unlike Romney who was sensible enough to read and acknowledge the writing on the wall the Huckster's raging hidden ego won't let him quit...

Or... the Huckster is hanging around for a VP nod from McCain, which depending on the variables, could prove to be beneficial or harmful to McCain in the general election. McCain will get the Religious Right's vote no matter who he nominates as his running mate so I'm guessing the Huckster and all his political baggage would be a bad choice. The one luxury McCain has going for him against Billary or the Magic Negro is that the thought of either of them (or *shudders* both of them) running the Executive Branch makes conservatives of all stripes collectively crap their pants...

Someone please tell me what happened to the moderate voice of the Democratic Party? Was Lieberman the last of that breed before he jumped ship?

McCain Huckabee may well be necessary. McCain is not young, and the guy "a heartbeat" away will carry a hint more importance than sometimes.

McCain may well need him not because the RR is likely to vote Dem -- it ain't gonna happen -- but becaues they might look at McCain and stay home figuring that 4 years of Obama or Clinton will re-energize the right wing by providing a shock treatment reminder.

Do NOT underestimate Obama. He is charming, he is glib, the values he advocates are universal (even if conservatives like myself disagree ENTIRELY with his methods for fuflilling them) and he does not have a lengthy track record or polarizing style that makes him an easy electoral target. If you want an easier --not easy, just easier -- "target" for McCain to go against, then start working for Hil's nomination. Obama will take McCain by 3 points in the general in a head to head.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

How many time do I have to say it? Gore won his home state, he got all 3 electoral votes from DC.

Edit-> and it's official, Romney in a speech told the Conservative Political Action Committee that's he's out to help the GOP's chances in the national election.

Well, ostensible home state then -- he really was a total inside-the-beltway creature wasn't he. Probably got jittery whenever he was too far away from Foggy Bottom and People's Department of State.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

[Spino]

McCain Huckabee may well be necessary. McCain is not young, and the guy "a heartbeat" away will carry a hint more importance than sometimes.

McCain may well need him not because the RR is likely to vote Dem -- it ain't gonna happen -- but becaues they might look at McCain and stay home figuring that 4 years of Obama or Clinton will re-energize the right wing by providing a shock treatment reminder.

Do NOT underestimate Obama. He is charming, he is glib, the values he advocates are universal (even if conservatives like myself disagree ENTIRELY with his methods for fuflilling them) and he does not have a lengthy track record or polarizing style that makes him an easy electoral target. If you want an easier --not easy, just easier -- "target" for McCain to go against, then start working for Hil's nomination. Obama will take McCain by 3 points in the general in a head to head.

I do not underestimate Obama. His ridiculous popularity only cements my already low opinion of the common man and his penchance for resembling a moth when confronted with a flickering flame. I guess Charles Dickens and PT Barnum really knew their stuff, eh? When it comes down to it all one needs is bloated rhetoric, bright colors, flashy style and graceful hand gestures to win the hearts and minds of John Q. Pleb. I refer to Obama as the Magic Negro because he somewhat embodies the term coined by Spike Lee when referring to the depiction of blacks in American cinema. What is a Magic Negro? A troubled, downtrodden, noble and wisened black character, typically male, who possesses a deep, spiritual insight into the workings of the world and demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice themselves for the white protagonist(s). Obama with his broken family history, rumors of drug abuse and dealing in his youth, impressive education, poetic rhetoric and 'lifetime of public service' to America (read: career politician) should be on his knees thanking his God for Hollyweird stereotypes and everything it has done for his career.

Seriously now, at some point Obama will have to dispense with the rhetoric and deal with the specific issues that are at the forefront of political discussion in this country. McCain is going to have a field day calling Obama on his less savory positions such as drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, universal healthcare, total withdrawal from Iraq, open dialogue with states (Iran) that openly call for the destruction of our allies, elimination of tax cuts, etc. If Obama relies purely on rhetoric he is going to run the risk of looking like someone who would rather duck the question than face the music. If he contradicts his established positions he's going to look like a liar and a political opportunist. On the other hand Obama cannot call McCain on his political and idealogical inconsistencies because many of them jibe with conventional Democratic thinking. Doing so will force Obama to run the risk of persuading undecided voters that McCain is actually Democrat friendly and thanks to his political resume, is more qualified to solve problems in a manner they find more agreeable.

Yes, Obama is charming, glib and the values he advocates are universal... but so was Kerry and he got whooped when he ran against GW Bush, a man loathed by liberals, barely tolerated by moderates and considered a reluctant bedfellow of true conservatives. GW Bush was a president who could have been easily unseated if a moderate Democrat ran against him. Despite the fact that George fumbled and bumbled his way through the debates, demonstrating his infamous 'Cindy Brady on camera' imitation, he still pulled off a stunning victory. A victory due to the fact that the average American is more afraid of a radical liberal than a hardcore conservative.

McCain is not loathed by liberals, in fact he is considered by the left to be the most likable and palatable Republican of the current lot. Add to the mix Naval officer, decorated war hero, tortured POW, experienced Senator, etc. and he's much more bankable than he appears.

True, Obama may not have a track record to attack but that is as much a failing as it is a strength. The expression "What have you done for me lately?" comes to mind.

Spino's list of hush hush, politically incorrect variables that make voters choose John McCain to be next president of the United States.

Shock! Surprise! Race will be a deciding factor. Obama is black, or half-black, and according to the fabled 'one drop rule' that makes him all black?!? And being black is what will lose him the Southern states, select Midwestern states, the Hispanic vote and possibly much more than 50% of Asian vote (which typically splits down the middle between parties for general elections). The Hispanic vote is not debatable, there is open animosity between blacks and Hispanics (especially the Central American variety) who happen to compete for low paying jobs and government benefits. The most rabidly anti-black racism I have ever heard has consistently emanated from the mouths of Hispanics of all ages. Add to the mix the fact that Hispanics are more likely to be practicing, dedicated Catholics and that Obama has a Muslim name... Intellectualize this all you like but this has already played out in the primaries. Obama will not win Florida in a general election. He may take the big point states like California or New York but he'll be fighting tooth and nail for them and will probably only come away with one (I think New York is a safe bet). It is conceivable we could be looking at a landslide victory for McCain. No? Again, remind me who Gore and Kerry lost to in the last two elections?

Barack Hussein Obama. Muslim name. Muslim name. Muslim name. Last but not least please consider the fact that Obama has a Muslim name, hails from a Muslim family and experienced a childhood where he was raised and educated as a Muslim in a Muslim environment. I don't care how much of a Christian he says he is or how much loves Jesus from the pulpit of southern black churches his background WILL play on people's subconscious minds come election time. 10-15 years of Islamic extremism is dancing about in American's collective subconscious and the mere hint of association can easily sour the mind of an undecided voter.

Hey Sasaki, this is a Republic, not a Democracy. Those same marvelous polls showed Gore and Kerry beating GW Bush in the general election, and we all know how those elections turned out, especially the latter...

[rvg]

The possibility of seeing The Obamination in the white house really scares me. I don't understand what is it that people see in him.

[Vladimir]

What the hell is Survey USA?

[Lemur]

GW Bush, a man loathed by liberals, barely tolerated by moderates and considered a reluctant bedfellow of true conservatives.

Actually, you don't hit and maintain a 32% approval if you're "tolerated" by moderates. Indies and moddies don't like GWB any more than anybody else.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled rant ...

[Vladimir]

Actually, you don't hit and maintain a 32% approval if you're "tolerated" by moderates. Indies and moddies don't like GWB any more than anybody else.

We now return you to your regularly scheduled rant ...

Something which you know all about...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/pol...ve/?poll_id=18

How's 18%? Better or worse than 32?

[Lemur]

Well, if Congress has a lower approval rating, then everything's alright then. Glad you cleared that up.

[woad&fangs]

Shock! Surprise! Race will be a deciding factor. Obama is black, or half-black, and according to the fabled 'one drop rule' that makes him all black?!? And being black is what will lose him the Southern states, select Midwestern states, the Hispanic vote and possibly much more than 50% of Asian vote (which typically splits down the middle between parties for general elections). The Hispanic vote is not debatable, there is open animosity between blacks and Hispanics (especially the Central American variety) who happen to compete for low paying jobs and government benefits. The most rabidly anti-black racism I have ever heard has consistently emanated from the mouths of Hispanics of all ages. Add to the mix the fact that Hispanics are more likely to be practicing, dedicated Catholics and that Obama has a Muslim name... Intellectualize this all you like but this has already played out in the primaries. Obama will not win Florida in a general election. He may take the big point states like California or New York but he'll be fighting tooth and nail for them and will probably only come away with one (I think New York is a safe bet). It is conceivable we could be looking at a landslide victory for McCain. No? Again, remind me who Gore and Kerry lost to in the last two elections?

Ummm, Obama won the Deep south Primaries, not Hillary. You are right about the hispanic vote. They'd be split in a Hillary vs McCain contest but a large majority would vote Mcain if the race was Obama vs McCain. I agree that Obama will not take Florida. New York is a question mark. California will go to the democrat nominee no matter what.

So in my Opinion-

Obama takes the deep south, California, Massachusetts(unless Romney is the VP candidate), Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Hawaii, Oregon and a few others.

Mcain takes the Northeast, Texas, the great plains and rockies and the midwest aside from the states already mentioned.

One last thing. If Obama chooses Hillary or Edwards as his running mate then he loses. Hillary as VP destroys his message of change. Edwards as VP bolsters the accusations of inexperience.

McCain will probably choose Huckabee so he can steal the south from Obama.

[rvg]

Obama takes the deep south...

Woad, I just don't see Obama taking any red state. Obama won the Democratic primaries there because of the black vote which always goes to dems anyway. If anything, his candidacy in that region might help galvanize local conservatives to show up in numbers and help McCain carry the South.

imho.

[Marshal Murat]

While the 'South' may seem a conservative hot-bed to many, it has broken the back of a 'Southern' candidate named Clinton. If anything, I think it'll be split in most states. While it's easy to say that Obama will galvanize the conservatives into action, the situation in the South is far more complicated.

Also, from what I hear, Crist may be McCain's running mate, rather than Romney or Huckabee.

[Tristrem]

As far as the Demcrats go, I really only see one option, and that is Obama winning the nomination. Think of the movement he has started, all the new people he has brought into the political arena. These are people who are fed up with the system and want whole sale change. People are realizing that we need change, and he is inspiring a new generation to participate in politics. If it comes down to the super delegates they will have to choose him. He, or his idea of change will not fade into the background, and Billary and McCain will not change anything. So these people will stop campaigning for this movement and move on to protests in washington dc. Marches on washington have happened before, and they can happen again. The establishment don't want this, therefore they win let him win and try to control his actions once he gets into office.

A little idealistic I know, but one can dream of this happening.

[econ21]

I refer to Obama as the Magic Negro because he somewhat embodies the term coined by Spike Lee when referring to the depiction of blacks in American cinema. What is a Magic Negro? A troubled, downtrodden, noble and wisened black character, typically male, who possesses a deep, spiritual insight into the workings of the world and demonstrate a willingness to sacrifice themselves for the white protagonist(s).

I think the Magic Negro reference is silly. Obama is doing well because he does not look troubled and downtrodden - he appears optimistic and successful, without some of the baggage often associated with African Americans. He's looking surprisingly strong against Hilary because - quite contrary to the cinematic archetype - he is not subservient to whites. (His jibe that he would welcome her as one of his foreign affairs advisors being exhibit A here). And it's an inappropriate term because there is nothing "magic" about making a decent speech, although perhaps 7 years of GW have made Americans forget that. (Bill Clinton was/is no slouch at public speaking, nor was Reagan, nor was Nixon, Kennedy ...) Really, when people like Rush Limbaugh use "Magic Negro" to label Obama, I don't think there is any content to it other than the obvious racial one - just cross out the word "Magic" and it would serve as well.

McCain is going to have a field day calling Obama on his less savory positions such as drivers licenses for illegal immigrants, universal healthcare, total withdrawal from Iraq, open dialogue with states (Iran) that openly call for the destruction of our allies, elimination of tax cuts, etc.

Maybe, although I suspect it is such "unsavory" things as support for universal healthcare that account for his popularity with many non-American Orgahs. Who knows, perhaps Americans are ready for a change? The fact that they probably know in their heart of hearts that they will withdraw from Iraq, they will (and are) in dialogue with Iran, they will have to deal with the budget deficit etc means that Obama's strong positions on these issues may not seem so far out and may even be seen as providing leadership.

Spino's list of hush hush, politically incorrect variables that make voters choose John McCain to be next president of the United States.

....Race will be a deciding factor. ....Muslim name. Muslim name. Muslim name. ...

At this point, I don't really care about Obama's virtues. Put it like that, and I hope he wins just because it would show America is not the place you think it is.

McCain is not loathed by liberals, in fact he is considered by the left to be the most likable and palatable Republican of the current lot. Add to the mix Naval officer, decorated war hero, tortured POW, experienced Senator, etc. and he's much more bankable than he appears.

Yes, as a liberal albeit a Euro, McCain seems the most televisual and charming of the candidates. Far from being "magical", Obama seems rather distant and cool. I suspect these days people often vote for the person they like the most, where "like" is taken literally and refers to personal charisma, warmth etc. It was in those aspects that GW Bush scored over Gore and Kerry (as did Clinton and Reagan before him).

[rvg]

At this point, I don't really care about Obama's virtues. Put it like that, and I hope he wins just because it would show America is not the place you think it is.

Whoa, whoa, wait a moment here. America is not trying to prove anything to anybody. America is trying to decide what is best for America. The fact that the guy is *in* the race shows very well that in backward racist Amurca a man of color can be considered a serious candidate for the presidential post while in the enlightened and tolerant Europe I do not ever remember seeing a black man standing a snowball's chance in Hell to get the post of either Prez or a PM. America doesn't need to prove anything to anybody, we're doing just fine here.

[ICantSpellDawg]

So now that Romney is out, I wuldn't vote in November unless he were to personally ask me to. I live in NY, so it doesn't matter anyway.

[Lemur]

Billary and McCain will not change anything.

I disagree. McCain will not equate a third GWB term. McCain is a deficit hawk, for one thing, and believes in balancing the budget. This alone would be a massive shift in policy. Also, we can depend on McCain to be an abolitionist when it comes to torture, another massive shift.

Quite a lot would change under President McCain, and all of it for the better. But Billary? I'm with you there. More of the same.

[Tristrem]

Now in light of your post, I can't say that McCain wouldn't change a thing. He would defintly be an improvement over what we have now, but I think he would fall very short on the type of wholesale change many Obama supporters want. That being said, I personally think that McCain is like the safe choice, not very flashy, but he would be very dependable and I think he has shown great character. He has to know that even though Iraq might of not been the best choice, If we are going to be over there we have to do it right. We have to commit to it wholy or not commit at all. It was him who called far more troops on the ground long before Bush had even thought of it. That in itself shows great vision. I usually do not like most republican canidates, but he does have me warming up to the GOP. If it was between him and Obama, I would have a great dilema. I would be satisfied with the choices, but, i would not know who to choose. If Billary wins the nomination, I'd vote McCain without blinking an eye, and if she won the general election, i'd move to canada till she was gone.