Euro worth over 1.50 USD

[Tribesman]

Comparing food would be good, leave out things like cheese though, that became expensive for some reason.

Thats down to a run of very bad years for fodder combined with very wet winters , plus the recent spread of bluetongue .
It means that while the finished products are shooting up in price , cattle are dropping in price .

[Shahed]

So who stills wonders that more and more countries try to get the stable Euro instead of the green endresult of a monetary policy similar to a banana republic? As an asset manager who actually keeps an eye on the health of the economy I rather happy that the ECB is so steadfast, while the FED seems to be a little shy maid doing whatever the financial market does.

Cheers

Well not me, I always bet on the Euro, and I'm coastin just fine !




Every good thing must come to an end though, I'm not sure yet where that end is ... got ideas Ole ? Let me know.

[OverKnight]

What about computer games? Looking at Gamersgate, I see games marketed at 29.99$ and 29.99 euros.

Small comfort for me since I just got back from vacation in London (4$ cup of coffee, and no half and half just whole milk ).

[Husar]

What about computer games? Looking at Gamersgate, I see games marketed at 29.99$ and 29.99 euros.

That my friend, happens everywhere, hardware, software, all the same, I could go to newegg.com and put a € sign instead of the $ signs and they would mostly fit, last time I checked. They also sell Call of Duty 4 on Steam and Americans are shown 50$ as a price while Europeans are shown 70...
I'm pretty sure someone somewhere can afford a golden nose now because when the Dollar and Euro were equal the prices were probably the same. And I wouldn't be surprised that when the Dollar comes up again, companies here will say: "Oh we're sorry but since the dollar is stronger now, we'll have to raise the prices to keep our margins because we're oh-so poor *raises his own monthly payment to a million*"

I myself decided not to buy new games over 40EUR, someocompanies try to push for 50EUR it seems (EA ), most games average 45 I'd say but I just look for where I can get them for 40 or less or I just wait.

It's harder to do that with milk/food though, but then again if I wait/boycott long enough I'll never need food again.

It's pretty good here concerning internet though, I pay 28EUR per month now for 6Mbit and an unlimited flatrate, somewhere further north the situation is even better but then that's not really an import good and we have a lot of competition here as well.

[Oleander Ardens]

Well Sinan I don't usually give tips because I think that a) investing is hard b) everybody knows something but nobody knows the wholething c) every person has specific needs.

That said I'm a firm believer of investing longterm in a basket of shares or exchange-traded funds with the latter being the best for a private investor with not so much time. Give them a look in the Wiki. They should beat managed funds reliably on the long term. But spread your money so that you can have an accessible reserve which you can desinvest without capital loss.

I'm personally staying out of the markets because I think the stock market will go down when more and more companies have to declare that their earnings are slowing down because the consumers in the USA have to cut back. The losses in the stock market will ripple to Europe and Asia before the effects of the US recession will be felt in the overall economies.

Commodities are IMHO the next bubble to bust, however it is very difficult to predict when. There is now a huge amount of money in search of a nice place where to rest. So this is streaming into the commodities as a hedge against the turmoil in the markets and as a hedge against the weak dollar.
All this money will boost the commodities but at some stage panic will spread because the recession in the USA will get felt in decreased consume and the slowing of the other economies.

So the trouble is as always to figure out when what happens and how it interacts. So in this times it is good to stay out of the market and wait before buying once again with a sound longterm strategy with several baskets storing your eggs. And one of this baskets might be for me US financial stocks in USD because I'm convinced both the dollar and the financial stocks will rise in the long term - I'm just waiting to see them fall further - 2008 should be a bad year for the housing market and the US economy. Perhaps a strong new president brings the hope back and the stocks and the dollar up.

Personally I'm right now investing in my house - which stands in Europe :)

[Oleander Ardens]

The Dollars is diving and diving: 1.53

I should have put more money in commodities - an error of omission, but at least one with good reasons Wonder when this bubble bursts...

[Husar]

Wonder when this bubble bursts...

Not before 2.00 I hope

[Oleander Ardens]

Actually I hope it dives and dives so that the FED has to fkeep a very close eye on the ever increasing inflation. This will weaken its ability to soften the fall of the US stocks and I will hopefully be able to buy very cheap stocks traded in a very cheap currency. Then the stocks and the USD can recover.

Long live the discounter called USA

[Oleander Ardens]

Over 1.54 - just 46 working days until 2.00

[Ice]

Over 1.54 - just 46 working days until 2.00

... and I thought 1.30 was bad when I went to Europe. Sheesh, I'm staying domestic for the foreseeable future.

[Oleander Ardens]

I really never thought that the € could reach 1.40.

I had now to read another Bush speak in bushspeak or newspeak about the US economy. It is sad when a government openly manipulates his own reports - this doesn't only apply to the Bush administration but they turned it into an art. There are plenty of indicators that the economy is in real terms already in a recession since October-November 2007. Mr. Bush says in March, no the US is only slowing down and the stimulus package will avoid the recession.

Credit is now tight as hell in US. Almost all companies in the overblown financial market are hoarding money because their is real fear that one might be the next hit by bad credits. They might talk differently but they put not their money there. So do almost all other companies now because credit becomes very expensive. Trillions of asset wealth will become hot air because the housing prices will continue their dive for months to come. Inflation, already higher than pointed out by the goverment will increase further because the USD seems to have gained recently only on the Zimbawe dollar and everybody with money is already in commodities or is going there. Trust, the base of every trade is hit badly now. Seems that Gold, Wheat and Oil are now the safe haven of us speculators which will drive the inflation.

Bernake now will be pressured by Mr.Bush, Wall Street and company to print more and more money and I confess that I can hardly see where the dive of the $ ends. But perhaps it may be coming soon the time to buy USD because everybody now hates it

[Ice]

Bernake now will be pressured by Mr.Bush, Wall Street and company to print more and more money and I confess that I can hardly see where the dive of the $ ends. But perhaps it may be coming soon the time to buy USD because everybody now hates it

Don't buy now. Wait until the fed cuts rates again, and maybe again, and then buy. They can only raise rates from there, and once the other rate cuts kick and we come out of this recession I'm predicting the value of our dollar will increase due to increased interest rates, lower inflation, and stronger economic growth.

[Oleander Ardens]

The question is timing. Actually I would only buy USD in the mid or even longterm. The market has no faith anymore in the USD and the trend is pointing downwards. Actually now we have rumours spreading since 2007 that the FED sells gold because a round very high number like $1000 for one ounce would send shockwaves through the media and increase the race of the money into gold. A surge in gold basically means that people with money don't longer trust the currencies, especially the USD no longer much and the stockmarket.

So right now I'm in gold and other commodities although in a lower percentage that I would like to be. Almost all other captial is liquid and in €. BTW in Egypt it seems that young couples have troubles to get married because the traditional gold gift (rings, necklace etc) to the bride is getting unaffordable. The odds of worldwide captialism.

Cheers
OA

[Husar]

Happy times.

[Ice]

.

So right now I'm in gold and other commodities although in a lower percentage that I would like to be. Almost all other captial is liquid and in €. BTW in Egypt it seems that young couples have troubles to get married because the traditional gold gift (rings, necklace etc) to the bride is getting unaffordable. The odds of worldwide captialism.

Good call with gold. I put a few hundred in a gold trust and it has gone up 10% in about a month.

I wish I had put all my money there :P.

[Oleander Ardens]

Well there are good reasons why i did not put more of my money into gold - I live in €land. So gold has first of all to outperfom the € not the $ - a far harder task in these days. For economies in $ gold is the perfect hedge, because Mr. Bernake will print money and cut rates as the US. goverment isn't able to stop the foreclosure tsunami which hits the USA. Thus if the $ goes down, gold goes up. Now the Fed tries actively to stop the gold from piercing the 1000$ wall because this shows the world just how bad the $ and inflation are.

So now there might be a time that the € will outperform or contain (for me) the rise of gold. I also hoped for a setback of the commodities put this didn't quite happen in the last three months - which shows just how strong the commodities are right now. So now I fear for a bubble in some commodities.

Anyway I have large stocks of liquid capital and I will try to buy cheap stocks in a cheap currency as far as I see light at the end of the tunnel

[Oleander Ardens]

The Fed is on the verge to pump more billions into the system

20.11.2008: 2$=1€

[Vladimir]

I really never thought that the € could reach 1.40.

I had now to read another Bush speak in bushspeak or newspeak about the US economy. It is sad when a government openly manipulates his own reports - this doesn't only apply to the Bush administration but they turned it into an art. There are plenty of indicators that the economy is in real terms already in a recession since October-November 2007. Mr. Bush says in March, no the US is only slowing down and the stimulus package will avoid the recession.

etc

Saw a good show on Science channel yesterday which revisited the 90's tech bubble. Hell, it's only been 10 years since "the traditional economic model was obsolete."

Do you even know what the definition of a recession is? Show me the negative growth reports.

[Ice]

Saw a good show on Science channel yesterday which revisited the 90's tech bubble. Hell, it's only been 10 years since "the traditional economic model was obsolete."

Do you even know what the definition of a recession is? Show me the negative growth reports.

Well, the classical definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.

However, we are experiencing an number of the symptoms of a minor recession currently without the negative GDP growth.

Besides, official numbers such as the unemployment rate do not tell the entire story. It is very hard to base whether we are in a recession off of one or two figures.

[Ice]

For Example:

Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and based on information collected on or before February 25, 2008. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic growth has slowed since the beginning of the year. Two-thirds of the Districts cited softening or weakening in the pace of business activity, while the others referred to subdued, slow, or modest growth. Retail activity in most Districts was reported to be weak or softening, although tourism generally continued to expand. Services industries in many Districts, including staffing services in Boston, port activity in New York, and truck freight volume in Cleveland, appeared to be slowing, but activity in services provided some positive news in Richmond and Dallas. Manufacturing was said to be sluggish or to have slowed in about half the Districts, while several others indicated manufacturing results were mixed or trends were steady.

Residential real estate markets generally remained weak; reports on commercial real estate markets were somewhat mixed, but also suggest slowing, on balance, in many Districts. Most Districts reporting on banking cite tight or tightening credit standards and stable or weaker loan demand. Districts reporting on the agriculture and energy sectors said activity is generally strong.

Upward pressure on prices from rising materials and energy prices was noted in almost all the District reports, but Philadelphia said increases in input costs and output prices had recently become less prevalent, and San Francisco indicated pressures were limited for products other than food and energy. By contrast, wage and salary pressures were generally said to be modest, as the hiring pace slowed in various sectors and labor markets loosened somewhat in many Districts.

Sounds good, yes?

[Oleander Ardens]

Actually I studied quite a bit economy, even earning an degree in it but this doesn't matter much here. If you would kindly study the history of our recessions you would understand that they get only official after they have long begun. Besides the technical difficulties to collect the data, goverments are notorious for interpreting it in ways which makes them look best, and Mr. Bush and company have turned that into an art.

But you will see Vladimir, you will see. The wise ones with money have already bought gold, silver and other commodities to reap good profit and to hedge against the inflation. Strange that so many had the same idea. The rest gets hit by falling housing prices, a credit crunch, tight money, mistrust, higher inflation, falling stock markets, great public dept and a falling dollar. But we are of course not yet in a recession, because Bush says so, and because the data is not out yet.

[Vladimir]

But you will see Vladimir, you will see. The wise ones with money have already bought gold, silver and other commodities to reap good profit and to hedge against the inflation. Strange that so many had the same idea. The rest gets hit by falling housing prices, a credit crunch, tight money, mistrust, higher inflation, falling stock markets, great public dept and a falling dollar. But we are of course not yet in a recession, because Bush says so, and because the data is not out yet.

The best word to describe our current economic state is, "meh".

Reading your posts reminds me of those who claim the '80s was a decade of greed while the '90s was one of unprecedented prosperity. When someone favoring your political agenda is in the White House we'll no doubt return to prosperity. It's not a recession just like I'm not a pink dancing elephant, like this guy:

Your wishing it is so doesn't mean it is so. Did we have positive or negative growth last quarter?

[Oleander Ardens]

"Beati pauperi spiritu et elephanti purpurati sunt"

Anyway I don't have to convince you. I made good money by betting on gold and on silver, although it could have been more if I had known it would be that bad. I guess you still hold your stocks in $ and accuse others of being bad to Mr. Bush and company and unpatriotic by selling them. Fair enough.

[Oleander Ardens]

Gold over 1000$ - Euro 1.56 $

Now I guess Gold will continue its sprint, especially when the money comes in from the industrial commodities when they get hit.

[Oleander Ardens]

Emercency Bailout for Bears, stocks down 47%. Seems that liquidity is right now a huge problem in the USA. !/3 of all CFO say that there companies are the credit cruch creates serious liquidity troubles for their companies.

Incredible. I guessed it would be bad - but that bad?

[Ice]

Emercency Bailout for Bears, stocks down 47%. Seems that liquidity is right now a huge problem in the USA. !/3 of all CFO say that there companies are the credit cruch creates serious liquidity troubles for their companies.

Incredible. I guessed it would be bad - but that bad?

Yeah dude it's REALLY BAD.

It is best to park your assets somewhere safe right now if you don't like the volatility.

[Oleander Ardens]

Well somehow I almost wished that the FED would not have given up one of it's wise core principals - to allow a company to fail. Now it looks like:" How bad it must be when the FED throws away the timehonored rules and starts to rescue the perpetuators of this crisis"

[KukriKhan]

Dunno about the rest of you guys, but I wanna know:

when Oleander Ardens thinks it's wisest to sell gold. He seems to have the inside track on that commodity.

When he sells, we've hit the bottom, so then: buy land.

[Caerfanan]

1 euro = 1.59 US dollars, now... I wouldn't have believed that 3 monthes ago...

[Fragony]

Greenspan;

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d386202c-f...0779fd2ac.html