Wow, that's quite an analysis, Duke John!
I think it shows once again what the main weakness of the game will most likely be: Battle AI. And given that I'm reasonably optimistic regarding most of the other aspects of the game (I just hope that I was wrong about diplomacy, please), I just realized what is going to be the make-it-or-break-it factor for this game..... autoresolve!
Because if battle AI turns out like it seems it will, the battles won't be fun for long. Eyecandy weares of quickly. Then we'll still have a great gampaign game, and with a good autoresolve there'll be no need to play battles yourself. I used to play RTW and sometimes even MTW quite a bit like that, except for real important battles.
The strategic part can definitely be a lot of fun by itself.
Of course, ideally the battles would be so much fun (which should be translated as: presenting a challenge in terms of actually facing though tactical decisions and having to do some thinking, and having the time to do so) that you would actually WANT to play them. But if that is not to be, I could still enjoy myself quite a bit with the strategic part. However, once you go that route, having to descend into battles you know will just be another little clickfest is really just an annoying disturbance. Ironically, I even got to 'like' RTW's ridiculous running speeds, kill rates, etc, because at least it would be over quickly.
Therefore, everything may end up depending on autoresolve! Given how autoresolve has worked in all past TW games though, I am not sure my new insight should make feel any better....

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