The future of Russia and NATO

[Jolt]

Just wondering, did you give some thought to this or did a light bulb suddenly appear over your head?

For the first question, I suppose it would be a bit of both. As for facts...Well, one can't give very specific facts since I'm predicting the outcome of a war which isn't even close to beginning.

On what facts are you basing this? Do you know that Russian military leadership is divided in several factions?

From what I know of the Russian leadership, from the Soviet period up to this day is that there were a lot of hardliners, and many cling on to a proud Russian state. (An example would be the "Kursk Submarine Incident" where the military dealing with the crisis apaprently preffered letting their own man die than "appearing" weak and calling the West for help. The same antagonism could very well come into effect in case of early defeats.) As well as having apparent tiques of authoritarism (Phreaps a result of the importance of the military in the recent history of Russia's regimes.), which could lead to meddling in political affairs in case the war doesn't go so well.

Some generals that are ready to support a coup or a foreign intervention?

And I meant the coup coming in sequence of Russian defeats. And I know that defeats tend to bring about dissent. I'm pretty sure there was no generals ready support coups or foreign intervention in Germany in the beginning of WW2. I'm sure von Stauffenberg wouldn't plot the assassination of Hitler in case Germany was winning the war.

Are Russians strongly divided as a nation? Who is going to rise in rebellion in Caucasus? Ossetians? Georgia is a separate country, in order to qualify for a rebellion it needs to be a part of Russia.

Rebellion in the Caucasus? Heck, the common example is the Chechens. Then we could mention Dagestani's, Ingush's, etc.

Antagonism between communists and non-communists was much greater in pre-ww2 Soviet Union than anything you can imagine in modern day Russia and the country still didn't fall apart after several defeats that would probably knock out any other country in the world out of the war.

The thing that kept the Soviet Union united in WW2 was the repression regime which Stalin had submitted the general population, the military and his own party into (The entire country, really). I don't doubt even for one second that in case Russia was a democracy by the time Hitler invaded, that the country would wholly collapse before the German advance.

This really has no basis in reality...

Exactly. Because there is no war going on in reality. This really is speculation, based on some basic associations, but it is still a valid opinion of what could happen in my eyes.