U.S. Elections 2008: General Elections -- Analysis and Commentary

[Redleg]

Worth pointing out, yes, that the overwhelming majority of us are well under this threshold? There are a lot more people than just the 40% making around 30k adjusted, and then 150-250k+.

Last time I looked at IRS figures there were about 40% of the population making under the 30K adjusted, If you have better figures by all means point out the link and the information. Proverty rate and median adjust income seemly supports that conclusion.

Looking at real numbers of tax returns that is provided on the IRS website, one might see a slight increase in the percent to about 45%;105,000,000 million filled with income under 30K, 78,000 millioned filled with income to 68K, and about 29,000,000 filled with income up to 150K, with about 10,000,000 filling above 150K, so while 40% might be low its not off by much.

Now my concern is that both candidates are making promises of tax cuts, which is not realistic in the face of the current debt for the nation, nor with the planned outlays that both candidates are advocating. The statistics of income and how tax is computed is interesting for the fact that it shows that both candidates are attempting to minipulate the vote by promising tax cuts at the federal level. Now if we pay attention to what is happening with the individual states, we can all predict a tax increase that will happen because of their own internal shortfalls, and that most states required that the state government have a balanced budget.

So they either get more money from the federal government or raise their own internal taxes. Which will effect the overall tax rate that people pay.

Worse case is that both candidates are misleading the people, knowing that either they will have to raise taxes, or cut out some of the campaign promised programs. I find it interesting that many think on those making above 250K will have a tax increase under an Obama adminstration, and that the rest will have a tax decrease. The rethoric from those within the campaign and outside doesn't really support that conclusion because of the adjustments in defining the cutoff by Biden and Richardson. To their credit they say they will not see an increase or a decrease, but that is completely different then what Obama has stated.

Now I only point out this, not because I am against Obama - only that I am pointing out that his campaign has not been consistent in the message. Now McCain is no better because he promises one across the board, which doesn't make since when one looks at his campaign promises and what the government budget is. So in the issue of Tax cuts, I find McCain's logic completely off, and Obama's campaign slightly misleading.

This forces me to look at the other issues that each candidate is running on, because I see both unable to meet their campaign goal of lowering taxes for my income level. (and no I am not in the 150 to 250K income group, I am in the next group that represents about 30 to 40% of the population)

[m52nickerson]

Show me in print where Obama has corrected both men.

His own plan, every speech he makes regarding his tax plan, any interview, they clearly state his position.

[m52nickerson]

Now my concern is that both candidates are making promises of tax cuts, which is not realistic in the face of the current debt for the nation, nor with the planned outlays that both candidates are advocating. The statistics of income and how tax is computed is interesting for the fact that it shows that both candidates are attempting to minipulate the vote by promising tax cuts at the federal level. Now if we pay attention to what is happening with the individual states, we can all predict a tax increase that will happen because of their own internal shortfalls, and that most states required that the state government have a balanced budget.

Only McCain has stated that he would balance the federal budget his first year office.

[Redleg]

His own plan, every speech he makes regarding his tax plan, any interview, they clearly state his position.

That was not what I asked, where has he directly stated that the two had overstepped what is plan

[Redleg]

Only McCain has stated that he would balance the federal budget his first year office.

which is a big win in his column

[CountArach]

which is a big win in his column

But also highly difficult with his tax cuts without putting in massive cuts in Federal programs - which is politically unpopular.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

That was not what I asked, where has he directly stated that the two had overstepped what is plan

So instead of clarifying by stating his position clearly you want him to rebuke his running mate?

[Louis VI the Fat]

'Sarkozy' gives Sarah a call...

Somewhat funny prank call. ('Our American advisor Johnny Hallyday' )

Sarah Palin sounds very impressed to reveive a call from Nicolas. I guess she still can't believe that she is suddenly propelled onto the world stage. (And neither can I )

To be honest, I started out feeling mean when I first pressed the play button. Hoping that she'd be pranked real good. That the call would show the limited extend of her foreign policy experience. Arguably, it does.
But...I couldn't help to notice that she actually sounded sincere in her affection for Sarkozy, sincere in her warm welcome. And she managed to keep a stiff upper lip thoughout. I can't believe it I would ever say it, but I found her quite endearing.

Fair play to her, +1 karma points for Sarah.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

There have been politicians who have been duped - sometimes with much more "interesting" consequences - by the same duo. I was actually quite impressed with how Mrs. Palin handled the call.

[Redleg]

So instead of clarifying by stating his position clearly you want him to rebuke his running mate?

If his running mate is incorrect then yes, if his running mate clarified what the plan is - then I want to know that from the man himself. Not his pundits.

[m52nickerson]

That was not what I asked, where has he directly stated that the two had overstepped what is plan

I don't know that he has. I will still take what he is saying over one of his surrogates.

[m52nickerson]

But also highly difficult with his tax cuts without putting in massive cuts in Federal programs - which is politically unpopular.

.....and stating it so long into a campaign looks more like desperation more then a plan.

[Crazed Rabbit]

So Obama wants to bankrupt coal plants in the US.

Think about that a bit, and how dramatically that would increase the price of electricity, hurting the poor the most, of course.

And then he wants to socially engineer how people live through taxes and the like. Not a new concept, but another dismal government intrusion on freedom, the idea that government can force you to decide as it wants you to, the idea that government should have any say in what legal goods you buy. Imposing your morality, you might call it.

If Obama's elected and gets all his taxes passed, he and the democrats will blame the economic troubles on the legacy of Bush and not on their own anti-growth actions.

CR

[Seamus Fermanagh]

'Sarkozy' gives Sarah a call...

Somewhat funny prank call. ('Our American advisor Johnny Hallyday' )

Sarah Palin sounds very impressed to reveive a call from Nicolas. I guess she still can't believe that she is suddenly propelled onto the world stage. (And neither can I )

To be honest, I started out feeling mean when I first pressed the play button. Hoping that she'd be pranked real good. That the call would show the limited extend of her foreign policy experience. Arguably, it does.
But...I couldn't help to notice that she actually sounded sincere in her affection for Sarkozy, sincere in her warm welcome. And she managed to keep a stiff upper lip thoughout. I can't believe it I would ever say it, but I found her quite endearing.

Fair play to her, +1 karma points for Sarah.

She's not a total putz. The media is just pissed off with a vengeance because she wasn't vetted through them by the McCain team. They view it as their "given" political role as the 4th estate, and they do NOT respond well to any politician who does not give them the short list for any position or the text of a speech in advance.

Sarah is a bit young for the job in terms of experience; like most governors she has limited FOPO training at best; and guiding Alaska isn't quite like working with the economy of California or New York, but she's not the complete dweeb some want her to be.

Now, is she the BEST choice for veep nominee -- that's another issue.

[Tribesman]

And then he wants to socially engineer how people live through taxes and the like. Not a new concept, but another dismal government intrusion on freedom, the idea that government can force you to decide as it wants you to, the idea that government should have any say in what legal goods you buy. Imposing your morality, you might call it.

So that would be like high taxes on tobacco and alcohol then , tax breaks on efficient electrical goods or cars and the like
Social engineering eh

[KukriKhan]

Hello all followers of US politics and presidential picking paradigms.

I direct your attention to this currently locked thread, which we will unlock early Tuesday (US Election Day) morning, and use as the successor thread to this one.

We will close this thread tonight on or about 1800 PST, to allow time for all US posters to get a good night's sleep before the big day. So: posters have the next 12 or so hours to get their last-minute campaign-era arguments in, before we move on the the "horse race" phase of the actual election.

I thank all for a very stimulating read, and cooperative attitude these past 21 months of primaries, conventions, and campaigns.

May the US pick wisely, and the best man win!

[Banquo's Ghost]

I'd like to add my thanks to all patrons who have contributed to this thread in such a positive, challenging and enlightening manner.

It has been (with just a very few exceptions) a pleasure to read and moderate this thread. Despite strong passions and trenchant opinions, you have done the Org proud. I doubt if one would find a more well-mannered, respectful and informative discussion on the election anywhere.

Well done, and thank you. I wish our American orgahs the very best on this eve of their election, and hope that all goes well.

I shall be watching the unfolding drama and commenting in the new thread (awesome work, CountArach, really ) as things go. Please forgive any aberrance therein - it'll be really, really late/early for us Euros!

[m52nickerson]

So Obama wants to bankrupt coal plants in the US.

Think about that a bit, and how dramatically that would increase the price of electricity, hurting the poor the most, of course.

And then he wants to socially engineer how people live through taxes and the like. Not a new concept, but another dismal government intrusion on freedom, the idea that government can force you to decide as it wants you to, the idea that government should have any say in what legal goods you buy. Imposing your morality, you might call it.

If Obama's elected and gets all his taxes passed, he and the democrats will blame the economic troubles on the legacy of Bush and not on their own anti-growth actions.

CR

Obama said that if someone wants to build a coal power plant it would bankrupt them because of the cap and trade penalties.

From the article

"So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted."

So you will still have the existing coal power plants to use coal, plus and clean coal plants that could be built.

[gaelic cowboy]

'Sarkozy' gives Sarah a call...

Somewhat funny prank call. ('Our American advisor Johnny Hallyday' )

Sarah Palin sounds very impressed to reveive a call from Nicolas. I guess she still can't believe that she is suddenly propelled onto the world stage. (And neither can I )

To be honest, I started out feeling mean when I first pressed the play button. Hoping that she'd be pranked real good. That the call would show the limited extend of her foreign policy experience. Arguably, it does.
But...I couldn't help to notice that she actually sounded sincere in her affection for Sarkozy, sincere in her warm welcome. And she managed to keep a stiff upper lip thoughout. I can't believe it I would ever say it, but I found her quite endearing.

Fair play to her, +1 karma points for Sarah.

Yeah an I would give her one too yum yum

[gaelic cowboy]

Obama said that if someone wants to build a coal power plant it would bankrupt them because of the cap and trade penalties.

From the article

"So if somebody wants to build a coal-powered plant, they can; it's just that it will bankrupt them because they're going to be charged a huge sum for all that greenhouse gas that's being emitted."

So you will still have the existing coal power plants to use coal, plus and clean coal plants that could be built.

Never mind yer GHG an all that climate change mullarky the real death knell of coal plants and coal mining in general is cost allied to scaricity of resources. Those mines in the US must be fierce exspensive to run just on labour costs alone no ones gonna open one of those coal plants unless there mad in the head.

[Louis VI the Fat]

So Obama wants to bankrupt coal plants in the US.

Think about that a bit, and how dramatically that would increase the price of electricity, hurting the poor the most, of course.

And then he wants to socially engineer how people live through taxes and the like. Not a new concept, but another dismal government intrusion on freedom, the idea that government can force you to decide as it wants you to, the idea that government should have any say in what legal goods you buy. Imposing your morality, you might call it.

If Obama's elected and gets all his taxes passed, he and the democrats will blame the economic troubles on the legacy of Bush and not on their own anti-growth actions.

CR

Alarmist spinning of reality, me thinks.


- America already is a Marxist state. The US already has a progressive tax system. Bush and Reagan have been redistributing wealth. Or, stealing the tips from hard working waiters and handing them out to lazy bums on the street, as the alarming real story that was emailed to Hooah showed, has been standard practice for ages.
A few percent more or less taxes under Obama makes no qualitative change to the current redisributive system.
If you are middle class, then Obama will increase your disposable income. If you don't have to save to put your kids through college, than McCain will reward you for being rich. That's all.

- America already is socially engineering. VAT, subsidies, high taxes on tobacco and liquor, tax breaks for certain behaviour - all of it has been standard American practice since time immemorial. Again, by the standard of the alarmists Ronald Reagan would be a Marxist social engineer.

- Coal.
Let me remind our Republican friends that McCain - just like Obama - up until a few months ago wished to replace polluting coal plants with cleaner coal plants and nuclear energy. Together with so many of McCain's strong selling points, this was tossed out of the window recently by our flip-flopping spineless 'maverick' to cater to the far right and big business.
Obama has stuck with his promise. McCain changed his after he won the primaries. This does not bode well.
Whether Obama's continued commitment to make America clean and energy independent through innovation is commendable or not is a matter of personal preference.

- There are economic troubles already. I note with some bemusement that the Republicans are already trying to retro-blame the current troubles on Obama's (possible) future presidency.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Obama is going to steel my children's food and sell it to buy Playstations for black prison inmates!!

[...]
Finally, I'm many things, but a racist isn't one of them. Perhaps I should take a break from discussing politics for a while, I think I'm getting a little too into it, and if all you hear from what I said is that I hate black inmates (don't remember saying anything about anybody's race though), I'm clearly not communicating very well.

I missed the seriousness of this the first time round.

Oh dear. I did not mean to imply you are a racist. We all know you better than that. I was lampooning the alarmist tone of the Republican base over the past two weeks.

Sorry.

Is it fair to cry racism over the tone of the Republican base? Perhaps not. Is it fair of the Republicans to call Obama's electorate Marxists and communists over a pretty mainstream income tax proposal? Perhaps not either.

I did cross the line of the general into the personal, for which my apologies.

[Xiahou]

Alarmist spinning of reality, me thinks.

Sometimes I can't tell if you're being ironic, or serious...

And then he wants to socially engineer how people live through taxes and the like. Not a new concept, but another dismal government intrusion on freedom, the idea that government can force you to decide as it wants you to, the idea that government should have any say in what legal goods you buy. Imposing your morality, you might call it.

That clip should have found its way into a campaign ad. I thought it was pretty powerful.

[Koga No Goshi]

The "they're not really incompetent, they just didn't get a fair shake from the media" defense of really, really phenomenally bad Republicans is not new, but it sure is old as an excuse for ineptitude. If you're going to use the media to judge one candidate when a clip from their preacher is played on loop for two weeks, or a misinterpreted comment like "lipstick on a pig" floods the airwaves, then it's totally fair game to attack someone who on the flipside, refuses to even give the public the opportunity to see any of their flaws or mistakes by refusing to publicly appear. (Cheney, anyone?)

To be honest I'm not sure how "the media is a big evil 4th estate" is in any way a mitigation of Sarah Palin's clear ineptitude for the job she has been handheld into running for. It's a chicken and the egg scenario-- the media wouldn't be having a cow at how they've been locked out and refuse access if the McCain campaign hadn't picked someone incompetent and unversed in foreign policy, who they knew they would have to hide and carefully control access to, in the first place.

And re: thread ending: Noooo. This is the bread and butter of the Backroom!

[CountArach]

Just another reason why people have to vote, even if their state isn't in play:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/ca_pro...on_8_chart.php
California's Proposition 8, which would amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage is very tight in the polling (Though Propositions are very, very hard to poll accurately). I know South Dakota also has a Proposition banning most abortions that is tight as well.

[Ronin]

It has just been anounced that Barack Obama's grandmother has passed away....my condolences to the family.

now...for the effects on the election? can this be significant???? sympathy vote???

[Seamus Fermanagh]

To be honest I'm not sure how "the media is a big evil 4th estate" is in any way a mitigation of Sarah Palin's clear ineptitude for the job she has been handheld into running for. It's a chicken and the egg scenario-- the media wouldn't be having a cow at how they've been locked out and refuse access if the McCain campaign hadn't picked someone incompetent and unversed in foreign policy, who they knew they would have to hide and carefully control access to, in the first place.

Koga my friend, dial it back a notch. I never said the 4th estate was being evil, just collectively too big for their britches and reacting a bit too "pissy" about Palin. She's not the worst veep nominee in history (consider Ferraro, Quayle, Agnew, Stockdale, A Johnson, Eagleton), though it'd be hard to assert she's in the top quintile (or the second for that matter). Virtually ALL governors are unversed in foreign policy, and they often get tapped for the top spot on the ticket; that one's a non-starter.

Her unforgivable sin is being a midddling (or sub-par) choice in an election when McCain needed a world beater. Pretty much sums up the whole GOP effort this time -- middling at best and facing a world beater. This time, at least, she'll come up short, but then again so will McCain.

EDIT: Condolences to the Obama family. She was, apparently, very close to him and her loss -- however expected -- cannot be anything but a tragedy. My prayers are with them.



And now, for a bit of shameless advertising. Sometime in the earlier part of the new year I'll be hosting Capo III in the Gameroom. Capo II was a compelling game...and generated a thread this size in roughly 1 month. Try it, you'll love the challenge.

Thanks to our "4 horsemen" for riding herd on this particular apocalypse so well -- passions were high and your kept all the balls in the air beautifully.

"Cast a cold eye on life, on death. Horseman pass by."

[Lemur]

Goodbye, dear election thread; we barely knew ye.

[TinCow]

I'd like to add my thanks to all patrons who have contributed to this thread in such a positive, challenging and enlightening manner.

It has been (with just a very few exceptions) a pleasure to read and moderate this thread. Despite strong passions and trenchant opinions, you have done the Org proud. I doubt if one would find a more well-mannered, respectful and informative discussion on the election anywhere.

Well done, and thank you. I wish our American orgahs the very best on this eve of their election, and hope that all goes well.

I would like to echo this towards the entire population of my country. This is a huge election of immense political and historical importance. It comes at a time in which our nation is beset by extremely serious issues which will have dramatic effects on our future for most of the rest of our lives. At the same time, our nation is divided nearly evenly along political lines that have existed for many years. This is the perfect storm that in many other times and places in history could have resulted in a revolution. Instead of this, we have had what has generally been one of the most civil and respectful political campaigns I have witnessed in my moderately short life. Reactions of extremism and hate on both sides have been an extremely uncommon exception and have not done anything but scratch at the periphery of the issues. Regardless of the result tomorrow, the very conduct of this election has made me very proud to be an American.

[Spino]

I would like to echo this towards the entire population of my country. This is a huge election of immense political and historical importance. It comes at a time in which our nation is beset by extremely serious issues which will have dramatic effects on our future for most of the rest of our lives. At the same time, our nation is divided nearly evenly along political lines that have existed for many years. This is the perfect storm that in many other times and places in history could have resulted in a revolution. Instead of this, we have had what has generally been one of the most civil and respectful political campaigns I have witnessed in my moderately short life. Reactions of extremism and hate on both sides have been an extremely uncommon exception and have not done anything but scratch at the periphery of the issues. Regardless of the result tomorrow, the very conduct of this election has made me very proud to be an American.

It ain't over till the fat lady tallies the votes... If the race is too close for comfort we could be in for a very rough period.