[Council of Villains] A State of Corruption [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Almost a vacuous tautology given that there is no no lynch; perhaps an endorsement to go ahead and kill protown roles?

It's an introductory statement.

As Atpg pointed out, conversion means 'avoiding lynching town' will very likely not work. Might as well go and kill people who look like they want to join Mafia, in which case Beefy seems like the best pick (although I'm very saddened if this happens).

Don't scoff at things when you miss the point badly

JHT was one of the early voters on TinCow, and kept his vote there until the end, so if you're looking for a reason not to vote him, that's it.

You're impressed by this?

Vote: TinCow

[Reenk Roink]

I don't believe I've found a method of analysis or reasoning for votes that you've ever agreed with; I also don't think I've found a suspect that you and I have ever agreed on. You are critical of my methods but short of just nodding and agreeing with what you say, I don't think I'm going to meet your expectations.

Maybe my methods are different than yours, and if we all behaved the same way or played the same way, the game would be boring. I don't ask you to stop being Reenk; let me be Pizza.

And add hyperbole to the list... Well no crap, nobody's stopping you from voting who you like or doing what you like, don't start this with me after you started it with Sasaki. But then people are allowed to criticize it, especially when you bark loudest.

[Romanic]

Imagine it was a 7 player game with 1 scum, and lynches were random.

1/7 chance day one.
1/5 chance day two.
1/3 chance day three.

68% chance. Good odds.

How do you get to 68%?

By my calculations the result should be 54%.

(Explanation: Chances to miss on D1 are 6/7, on D2 4/5, and on D3 2/3 so, 6/7 * 4/5 * 2/3 = 0.457 to kill a townie every day, thus 1 - 0.457 = 54.3% to kill the scum).

[Askthepizzaguy]

And add hyperbole to the list... Well no crap, nobody's stopping you from voting who you like or doing what you like, don't start this with me after you started it with Sasaki. But then people are allowed to criticize it, especially when you bark loudest.

And I'm allowed to point out that your opinions are just that; opinion. It's not a fact that your methods are better. So you can criticize all you like, but you offer little in the way of why anyone should listen to you.

[Reenk Roink]

It's an introductory statement.

The context doesn't prevent it from almost being a vacuous tautology, nor does the context add some kind of meaning to it that overrides the literal meaning. It's hard enough following you all over the place, let's try to avoid making up profound maxims as well.

Don't scoff at things when you miss the point badly

Jari Kurri had around a 30% shooting percentage in his prime, among the best ever in the history of the game. So how bout you show him how he missed the net instead of posting a fishing smiley?

[Reenk Roink]

And I'm allowed to point out that your opinions are just that; opinion. It's not a fact that your methods are better. So you can criticize all you like, but you offer little in the way of why anyone should listen to you.

I don't have set methods. Epistemological anarchism all the way. And of course my offerings why people should listen to me are more substantial than yours. I go beyond mere adjectives.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I don't have set methods. Epistemological anarchism all the way. And of course my offerings why people should listen to me are more substantial than yours.

I bet if you keep telling yourself that, it makes it true.

[Reenk Roink]

I bet if you keep telling yourself that, it makes it true.

It sure might, I mean you're one prime example!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

The context doesn't prevent it from almost being a vacuous tautology, nor does the context add some kind of meaning to it that overrides the literal meaning. It's hard enough following you all over the place, let's try to avoid making up profound maxims as well.

But it does make saying it's a vacuous tautology irrelevant. What on earth makes you think I typed that out as a profound maxim? I was typing in all caps earlier.

Jari Kurri had around a 30% shooting percentage in his prime, among the best ever in the history of the game. So how bout you show him how he missed the net instead of posting a fishing smiley?

Because it's a basic town concept that everyone knows. You go after people and then change course if you get a town read on them, and it's beneficial to do this to several people. What is arguable about that and how is it effected by recruitment?

I wrote it because I was justifying a johnH/etc lynch, with the point being that if you explore a bunch of candidates and votes accumulate on them, and you get the feeling that they aren't good lynches, even a random lynch from the unknown pool is better.

It's simple and not remotely profound.

How do you get to 68%?

By my calculations the result should be 54%.

(Explanation: Chances to miss on D1 are 6/7, on D2 4/5, and on D3 2/3 so, 6/7 * 4/5 * 2/3 = 0.457 to kill a townie every day, thus 1 - 0.457 = 54.3% to kill the scum).

I added instead of multiplied

[Askthepizzaguy]

It sure might, I mean you're one prime example!

Easy there Reenk, wouldn't want your ego to explode now.

[Romanic]

Maybe one of his scum buddies was on that wagon, and he wanted to lessen their chance of dying, because they are more important than him.

Hmm, I'd be surprised. It would be simpler to have his partner unvote than adding himself to the bandwagon, which (almost) double their chances to lose a teammate.

I wonder why you suddenly have interest in this Link. Are you trying to push ATPG as a scum?

Also, I find it amusing that you ask 2 other players to give up reasons for their votes (Jarema and Skooma), yet soon after you place a vote on Jarema, yourself without giving a reason. How do you explain this?

[Romanic]

I will need to scroll back to read his post in full, but from what you quoted, I will respond.

Out of GF and IDFH, and every GF member has 'GF' in their name, and every IDFH has been a 'hero' character. This would place me on the IDFH side of things.

From the information I can seem to gather though, Phazon are using IDFH members as cover roles and Samus is using GF roles as cover roles. The 'Hero' faction seems to possess both 'GF and IDFH' typical members.

So according this, if I was on a mafia team, it would be on TinCow's team, not Samus or on Team Samus.

This goes back to YLC's far-out-there theory, where I am TinCow's team mate. This is also arguably not true because TinCow is using his resources to kill me off. This is from him accusing me of being Samus, his team has night killed me, they have night killed people I know in Real Life in attempt to get at me, and his various other methods. In short, if I was Tincow's team mate, him and his team wouldn't be putting in a serious effort to kill me.

Is this true? (the bold part).

Greyblades was named "Aurora Unit 242".
Robbiecon was named "Trace".
Sasaki was named "Rundas".

No "GF" in any of them.

[Reenk Roink]

Easy there Reenk, wouldn't want your ego to explode now.

It is too resistant, alas. It also gains elasticity from irony; situations that couldn't be scripted better. 'butt kicking' awww yeeee.

But it does make saying it's a vacuous tautology irrelevant.

Not exactly...

Because it's a basic town concept that everyone knows. You go after people and then change course if you get a town read on them, and it's beneficial to do this to several people. What is arguable about that and how is it effected by recruitment?

The theoretical portrayal is surprisingly good to be honest. Of course practically it falters, getting reads on people is difficult. It is very much affected by recruitment though! How can you even ask???

If we feel safe in getting reads on people that we think are town and move on, these people will more likely be ignored in later game. How dangerous is this when they convert.

Of course you say, we will evaluate them as we go along, but this is again not realized as it is theorized...

[Romanic]

Jari Kurri had around a 30% shooting percentage in his prime, among the best ever in the history of the game. So how bout you show him how he missed the net instead of posting a fishing smiley?

Gretzky earlier, now Jari Kurri. I seem to recall you were living in Mongolia?! Is hockey popular there?

/OOG, sorry. Hockey fan, can't resist.

[Beskar]

Is this true? (the bold part).

Greyblades was named "Aurora Unit 242".
Robbiecon was named "Trace".
Sasaki was named "Rundas".

No "GF" in any of them.

Actually, it is correct. They are all metriod characters, and part of the Galatic Federation. You are taking my statement too literal.

[Reenk Roink]

Gretzky earlier, now Jari Kurri. I seem to recall you were living in Mongolia?! Is hockey popular there?

/OOG, sorry. Hockey fan, can't resist.

Man, I know Michigan is having economic problems but we're not comparable to Mongolia yet!

I remember you as the Habs fan Romanic. Always a favorite team of mine. And it's nice to know someone aware of Kurri. Most people I watch games with are like "OMG CROSBY > GRETZKY 25 game streak!"

[Choxorn]

People like me are instead pointing out that analyzing things on PAST behavior is very easily countered by Mafia, and wanting to know why you interpret Nictel's post as "flinching" and describe it with many adjectives. You basically said very little using many words on why Nictel was guilty, and pushed it very hard for a early round lynch.

This may be true, but past behavior can be useful for analysis. For instance, my gut and knowledge of Nictel's past games in which he was mafia tells me that this is exactly how he would act if he was mafia.

[Reenk Roink]

This may be true, but past behavior can be useful for analysis. For instance, my gut and knowledge of Nictel's past games in which he was mafia tells me that this is exactly how he would act if he was mafia.

No doubt even the past behavior method has some (quite little) merit. However, if you recall in the sense Atpg used it against Nictel, it was something along the lines of Nictel has never flinched like this before where he just exploded.

Aside from the criticism on interpreting the post as flinching/exploding, a further criticism made clear by Secura (and others I don't remember) is that it was New Years, and a particularly large bandwagon had arisen on Nictel.

Past behavior analysis (which is basically one of the metagaming features dubbed acceptable in these games) suffers from the problem of the Mafia being well cognizant and able to use it to their own benefit when the situational contexts of the current behavior and the past behavior are the same.

Here we have a case where the contexts seem to differ (again never seen Nictel play but he alluded to something similar in his defense).

[Romanic]

Actually, it is correct. They are all metriod characters, and part of the Galatic Federation. You are taking my statement too literal.

Okay, got it. Never played Metroid.

Man, I know Michigan is having economic problems but we're not comparable to Mongolia yet!

I remember you as the Habs fan Romanic. Always a favorite team of mine. And it's nice to know someone aware of Kurri. Most people I watch games with are like "OMG CROSBY > GRETZKY 25 game streak!"

Lol, Michigan. Sorry. I was certain to have read you lived in Mongolia... Where did I get that?

some more OOG to answer Reenk, sorry.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Yup, I'm a big Habs and yup Crosby's streak doesn't compare with Gretzky's (who scored 150+ points in fifty something consecutive games) but NHL is different today that it was in the 80's, less goals, bigger goalies, so it's up to debate how close Crosby really is.

[Romanic]

FoS: Yaraopolk

Pointless, and defending comment.

All we know about cover roles is that TC's looked exactly like his real role. Could be a one off, could not. Anything else is unknown.

Jill Valentine was mentioned in the writeup, so it's likely not a cover role, because those do not appear in writeups.

At least, I don't recall seeing a cover role being part of a writeup, correct me if I am wrong.

[pevergreen]

Jill Valentine was mentioned in the writeup, so it's likely not a cover role, because those do not appear in writeups.

At least, I don't recall seeing a cover role being part of a writeup, correct me if I am wrong.

You're wrong.

Koopa Troop. I, as Donkey Kong, attack Sasaki (Princess Peach). I am blocked from attacking her, by two guards. I am investigated publicly that night (Beefy was an investigator that had his results revealed publicly) and I showed up as my cover role, King Bob-omb.

As for this game, we've not seen anyone with a cover role show up, because no one thats died at night has had one.

[Romanic]

You're wrong.

Koopa Troop. I, as Donkey Kong, attack Sasaki (Princess Peach). I am blocked from attacking her, by two guards. I am investigated publicly that night (Beefy was an investigator that had his results revealed publicly) and I showed up as my cover role, King Bob-omb.

As for this game, we've not seen anyone with a cover role show up, because no one thats died at night has had one.

What I meant is that when someone is attacked at night, I don't recall seeing the writeup using the cover role name.

To be clearer, let's say that Beskar would have Jill Valentine as a cover role, but in fact would be Ugly Bad Guy.... I think the writeup would say:

Ugly Bad Guy was attacked (and survived).

and not...

Jill Valentine was attacked (and survived).

I don't recall seeing a writeup showing that the cover role was attacked.

When it comes to investigations (public or not), it's typical to have some players protected against them, and return a cover role instead of the true identity, so I don't consider your example to be good. I still believe that Jill Valentine cannot be a cover role, because she was attacked and the writeup said so.

[pevergreen]

I don't recall seeing a writeup showing that the cover role was attacked.

Point me to someone being attacked (and killed, since beskar is still alive) that has had a cover role, in this game.

[Double A]

Motep mentioned that (all?) mafia had the ability to kill one of their voter in the previous instances of "Council of Vilains".

1) Is this true?
2) Did every mafia player have this ability, or only a few (or only one)?
3) Could scum partners be killed if they were voting for the lynchee?

I'm too lazy to look for this myself. Particularly interested in answer #3.

Hey I found a post that was gobbeled up in the Pizza/Sasaki post parade!

In Koopa Troop, there wasn't a single character who killed people when they were lynched. I think. There was a joker, but nothing else like that.

[TinCow]

BlahbLahblAhblaHBlahbLahblAhblaHBlahbLahblAhblaH

Can't you people stop talking and just lynch someone? I think I can speak for both Dark Samus and Samus on this one...

I got a fever, and the only prescription...is more KILLLLLLLLL!!!!(*)




(*) Desire for murder does not apply to wonderful townies who love their mafia allies. We want to hug them instead.

[God Emperor]

If anyone have a tally at hand, could they post it ?

[Death is yonder]

Hmm from my quick skim the Seon lead seems fairly decent, since ATPG is supposedly innocent and Beefy is as I mentioned before... Beefy-ish (which isn't much of a case to lynch him by really).

Unvote: Abstain
Vote: Seon

In any case, since it seems to have dropped, I'll reiterate what Sasaki said.

Ironside has churned out information that he should otherwise not have, that Beskar is somehow IDFH and Sasaki double checked and found out that that was the first context of "Jill Valentine" (Beskar's alleged character role) and "IDFH" together.

Could be perfect information syndrome, but I'll just toss it out again since it seems to have been swallowed up by discussion between Reenk,Sasaki and ATPG.

In any case, Ironside for this recent seems to be a fairly decent lynch for the next phase, this slip of tongue shouldn't be let off.

Anything to say about this Ironside?

[Jarema]

There were sopme accusations against me.
It is hard to answer them after one or two pages of posts, that is why I did not respond to them at the first time. Now, I will try.
ATPG, I escaped from TinCow wagon just because I want to survive. I try to win games I play in, and in this one part of winning is surviving in my case. It is really simple.
Link, I voted for Glenn because between main lynch candidates he was looking the most suspicious to me. I did not have any reason not mentioned by others before me.

[classical_hero]

After some going through the thread, I think unvote,vote:Seon is a good one for now. But I think the cases so far presented on anyone does seem weak, but I don't have much to go on. I do believe that abstain is not a good option in any situation.

[TinCow]

This bores me.

Since, other than Sasaki, you are all incapable of spotting the obvious scum in your midst, I will help you.

ATPG is Ridley, in either Meta or Omega form. He pretended to be an ally of the Phazon, but he made an error that tipped me off. I cannot discuss this error due to limitations imposed on me by being dead. ATPG attacked Beskar last night. You can see his clear Ridley-ness in the attack.

Ridley is an independent/neutral party and he is a threat to everyone. He needs to kill both mafias and the town, and will win solo. For confirmation of his third party nature, look no further than the N0 write-up. First Samus’ mafia team is seen boarding the ship, then Dark Samus’ mafia team. Then, a third party enters:

“Admiral Dane, I believe you should be seeing this.”

A holo-screen stretched across the wall. On it, what appeared to be a large, metallic dragon was rocketing towards them through space. All of a sudden, a massive crash rocked the entire ship, and the lights dimmed for a moment.

That is ATPG as Meta/Omega Ridley. If you still doubt how much of a threat Ridley is to everyone, I suggest you google the character name. We considered simply killing him, but he likely has significant defenses against night attacks, leaving a lynching as the only reliable way to dispose of him. I suggest you do it ASAP, as he is likely growing in power every night.

You're welcome, Samus.