Chinese ghost-towns

[a completely inoffensive name]

True. But I'm not sure how much that is really a concern in Chinese decision making. On a central level they're certainly acutely aware of these problems and their impact (seeing as how vulnerable Chinese agriculture & food supply will be as a result), but how much of that awareness at the top trickles down & translates into concern on the local level?

Probably not much, because local provinces don't want rebellions over a lack of jobs any more than the central government does except they don't have the same national perspective the central does. This is in my opinion a good possibility for China to begin to develop a major weakness due to their over ambition and labor constraints (don't want them to cause rebel). Which is why I say in the first place that China is not going to be the threat everyone thinks it will be. No country can have it all, so soon. By the time their industry expands enough to employ more than 95% of the labor population, it will be wreaking havoc on the natural environments all up and down the east coast, which will end up destabilizing the region all over again.

[Fragony]

Probably not much, because local provinces don't want rebellions over a lack of jobs any more than the central government does except they don't have the same national perspective the central does. This is in my opinion a good possibility for China to begin to develop a major weakness due to their over ambition and labor constraints (don't want them to cause rebel). Which is why I say in the first place that China is not going to be the threat everyone thinks it will be. No country can have it all, so soon. By the time their industry expands enough to employ more than 95% of the labor population, it will be wreaking havoc on the natural environments all up and down the east coast, which will end up destabilizing the region all over again.

When considering that TA's explanation makes even more sense, for these rebelious factors plenty of places to start a new life.

[gaelic cowboy]

These Ghost Towns/Cities are no different to the idea of Ghost Estates in Ireland probably caused by a hyper property market that allowed crooked property developers and crooked politicians to feed of the public trough.

[a completely inoffensive name]

When considering that TA's explanation makes even more sense, for these rebelious factors plenty of places to start a new life.

I don't understand what you have said.

[tibilicus]

People have been saying China's bubble will end for years and yet it keeps going. I guess people want it to be that way, particularly the economic elite. That's because China doesn't fit into their tidy neoliberal argument and they can't stomach that a country with an incredibly centralised government and strong government economic intervention can be successful, which goes against their tidy neoliberal theory of how the world should be.

[a completely inoffensive name]

People have been saying China's bubble will end for years and yet it keeps going. I guess people want it to be that way, particularly the economic elite. That's because China doesn't fit into their tidy neoliberal argument and they can't stomach that a country with an incredibly centralised government and strong government economic intervention can be successful, which goes against their tidy neoliberal theory of how the world should be.

China's bubble isn't going to end for a long time as long as the conditions are all met. People just think that the conditions are going to change soon and China will suffer a downturn for it. For example, China needs to make millions of new jobs every year so the immigrants coming from the western provinces don't rebel due to a lack of jobs. People thought that the economic downturn would limit the amount of jobs China would be able to create, but it didn't. China simply pulled out the hire mass amounts of people to do meaningless work tactic and kept the job creation rate high.

[aimlesswanderer]

Those ghost towns seem like a misallocation and waste of resources (though perhaps they will be populated in the future) and a property bubble, if the housing has been bought. The Chinese government (or governments, since the provinces on down can, to some extent, do what they want) can afford to invest money in some uneconomically viable projects (or "lose" it through corruption, mismanagement, etc), but I doubt that it can go on forever. Eventually the white elephants will weigh down the system, along with the ageing population.

China's biggest long term problem is the massive ageing of the population. The 1 child policy, as well as the high cost of raising children, means that the population is going to shrink, and fast in the future. The tax base and number of workers will shrink alarmingly, and the government will have to figure out what to do with and how to look after the vast number (and high % of the population) of oldies.

The government is going to need to save while it can. Government revenue is not going to stay sky high forever...