Re: Civil War in Libya
I completely disagree. History is filled with failed revolutions put down by military force. Revolutions made up of mostly unarmed protestors are that much easier to break. As we witnessed yesterday, pro-regime forces rather easily crushed an uprising in Tripoli with force of arms.Originally Posted by Prince Cobra
This will come down to who has the support of the majority of the military.
Re: Civil War in Libya
Protests, PJ?
My friends uncle bought AK47's for 100.000USD. He's far from the only one, there are columns driving from egypt. The rebels are now properly armed and engaged in a civil war. They have also looted all the military bases in eastern Libya, and they're driving around in tanks.
Gaddafi's military, however, is seeing defections every hour, from riflemen to jet pilots. Also, just about every Libyan diplomat has defected, including his childhood friend who was the diplomat assigned to the UN, and they're now doing all they can to gath foreign support for the rebellion.
Gaddafis's strength is waning by the minute, something his hilarious official statements are proof of. He's Hitler in April '45.
Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban
Re: Civil War in Libya
That's a truckload of rifles. In Mama Russia you can get one as low as 12$, I suspect those were 500$ each?
Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.
Proud
Been to:
Swords Made of Letters - 1938. The war is looming in France - and Alexandre Reythier does not have much time left to protect his country. A novel set before the war.
A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?
Re: Civil War in Libya
We'll see how widespread such activity is. An AK47 does not a soldier make. I don't think there are any accurate assessments of the comparative military strength of the regime and the rebels available at this time. The point being that this will likely be decided by force of arms, unlike Egypt or Tunisia.
Last edited by PanzerJaeger; 02-27-2011 at 06:10.
Re: Civil War in Libya
The difference in Egypt and Libya is that Libya has large amounts of foreign mercenaries working for Gaddafi´s regime. But i doubt that the Libyan army will start a serious war in order to protect Gaddafi. Me thinks his days are numbered.
Ja Mata Tosainu Sama.
Re: Civil War in Libya
A mercenary does not necessarily make a soldier either, and it appears many of them have come from rather desperate places, so I'm thinking perhaps these aren't the same kind of professionals that were coming out of SA during the 70s-90s. That, and loyalty among mercenaries is something I wouldn't gamble on, as soon as the situation deteriorates to the point that mercenaries start taking heavy casualties you can bet they'll be gone at a moment's notice.
Re: Civil War in Libya
There is no "libyan" army. the old army numbered around 40k out of nearly 7 million - a large minority of which, if not an outright majority, have defected. The Bulk of Gaddafi's support comes from those that he is paying to kill civilians. since the eastern oil fields are in opposition hands and his accounts abroad are being frozen, it is only a matter of time until he is unable to buy any more loyalty and his regime will collapse. My money is on somebody paying a few mercenaries double what Gaddafi's offer is - to kill Gaddafi. All war crimes charges could be dropped against the conspirators.
The CIA can manage to get itself into enough trouble killing people when they probably don't need to die, but now that they could be useful they are nowhere to be found.
Maybe, after enough people are butchered by this lunatic, the worlds appetite for Team America - World Police intervention will return for the next atrocity. And maybe we can have some non-bed-wetting support from mainland Europe, if they can find their balls after all these years (this does not go out to any "coalition of the willing" partners, except for Spain)....
Last edited by ICantSpellDawg; 02-27-2011 at 15:04.
"That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there."
-Eric "George Orwell" Blair
"If the policy of the government, upon vital questions affecting the whole people, is to be irrevocably fixed by decisions of the Supreme Court...the people will have ceased to be their own rulers, having to that extent practically resigned the government into the hands of that eminent tribunal."
(Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, 1861).
ΜΟΛΩΝ ΛΑΒΕ
Re: Civil War in Libya
Let the Italians go in if need be. They are close and it used to be their province anyhow, so let them fix the problem.
Re: Civil War in Libya
Someone tell Berlusconi that there are a bunch of hot ladies down there that want to have some Bunga-Bunga parties with him.....
he'll have this fixed up in a week!
"If given the choice to be the shepherd or the sheep... be the wolf"
-Josh Homme
"That's the difference between me and the rest of the world! Happiness isn't good enough for me! I demand euphoria!"
- Calvin
Re: Civil War in Libya
Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example.The other slightly outdated examples is trying to save Metternich during the revolutions in 1848 (which was obviously futile and never tried) or Charles X with the Swiss guard in 1830. I can't remember many historical examples to support your idea.
Gadafi simply can't muster enough mercenaries to crush the rebellion. And I am not very sure how stable is the control of Tripoli that is supposed to be most loyal to Gadaffi because it is where his main forces should have been.
Revolution is started by unarmed protestors and in the process of the revolution these people get good arms.
Last edited by Prince Cobra; 02-27-2011 at 18:09.
R.I.P. Tosa...
Re: Civil War in Libya
How about the revolution in India in the 19th Century, or the post-Gulf War revolt of the Marsh Arabs in Iraq?Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example.
Gadafi simply can't muster enough mercenaries to crush the rebellion. And I am not very sure how stable is the control of Tripoli that is supposed to be most loyal to Gadaffi because it is where his main forces should have been.
Revolution is started by unarmed protestors and in the process of the revolution these people get good arms.
PJ is correct that revolutions can be put down, but not easily.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Re: Civil War in Libya
Think harder?Yes, the Shah of Iran is a good example.
Here are a few off the top of my head. You could really throw in a lot of Civil Wars as well where the side breaking away failed to gain independence such as America's, but I wanted to keep it simple.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phillipine_American_war
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_rebellion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1959_Tibetan_uprising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungari...lution_of_1956
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebelli...e_Seven_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Jewish_Revolt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiananm...otests_of_1989
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Intifada
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Uprising_in_Karbala
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thammas...tober_protests
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1932_Sa...asant_uprising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pitchfork_Uprising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaocen_Revolt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokehs_Rebellion
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Easter_Rising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boer_Revolt
Re: Civil War in Libya
You forgot the spanish civil war?!?!?!
Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban
Re: Civil War in Libya
in the spanish civil war the "revolutionaries" were the fascists...so that's an example of a revolution working.....not being put down.
"If given the choice to be the shepherd or the sheep... be the wolf"
-Josh Homme
"That's the difference between me and the rest of the world! Happiness isn't good enough for me! I demand euphoria!"
- Calvin
Re: Civil War in Libya
That's a mighty simplistic view... The spanish republic was almost evenly divided between the nationalists and republicans, and the republicans also promised a violent revolution if they lost the election.
If it had been the nationalists who got the tiny majority in the last election, the revoution would've been started by the republicans and the scenario would fit perfectly with what we're seeing now.
Apart from that minor detail, the spanish civil war fits perfectly with the "popular uprising crushed by authoritarian state"-scenario.
Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban
Re: Civil War in Libya
Except that it was the Socialists who precipitated the crisis by trying to overthrow the monarchy. You know the Spanish Kings HoreTore, they're the royals that actively safe-guard the freedom of their people.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Re: Civil War in Libya
Oh what bollox again. The king did not support freedom, the king supported (was the puppet of) Prime de Rivera, the Spanish dictator. When the dictator died, the monarchy was abolished too. In its place came the Spanish Republic, a democratically established, free republic. This was way back in 1931.
The monarchy had been long gone when the republic was violently overthrown by insurrectionists. The civil war started in 1936 when the fascist and monarchist insurrectionists sought to overthrow the free republic. When they succeeded, neither a free country nor a monarchy resulted, but Franco's dictatorship was imposed.
Re: Civil War in Libya
I conflated two points.
1. That the Spanish King has protected the rights of his people, to upset HoreTore,
and
2. That the scoialists caused the revolution, which was precipitated by the insistance on getting rid of the King and creating a socialist constitution.
"If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."
[IMG]https://img197.imageshack.us/img197/4917/logoromans23pd.jpg[/IMG]
Re: Civil War in Libya
Much as it pains me so, and I am not sure I agree myself, just about everyone knowledgable about Spain insists to me that the present monarchy has been essential in stabilising democracy in Spain in the past few decades.
Maybe that much is true. Fact is that Spain has seen a remarkable economic and cultural flowering recently, not a given in all of former dictatorial Europe.
I do not think the Second Spanish Republic was 'socialist'. A republic by its nature is progressive. All of Europe's republic, and the US one too, are opposed to the aristocracy, to Rome, to monarchy, to the army as a state within a state. The Nationalists were reactionaries, opposing freedoms one takes for granted in Switzerland, France and America. They were not the protector of Spain against an extreme-left dictatorship. They were too backwards looking to even be proper fascists, which is a modernist enemy of liberal democracy.
Franco's hounddogs learned their tricks while brutalising the population of Spanish Morocco. Then they brought their terror home, against their own people. Which might return this to the subject of North Africa and the use of force against one's own population.
Re: Civil War in Libya
One of my instructors was from Spain last semester
She was beautifual
There, but for the grace of God, goes John Bradford
My aim, then, was to whip the rebels, to humble their pride, to follow them to their inmost recesses, and make them fear and dread us. Fear is the beginning of wisdom.
I am tired and sick of war. Its glory is all moonshine. It is only those who have neither fired a shot nor heard the shrieks and groans of the wounded who cry aloud for blood, for vengeance, for desolation.
Re: Civil War in Libya
Thought I should pick up on this. In this video, the rebels are repainting a gunship. In this article, BBC interviews a senior officer at the Benghazi air base:
For reasons like this, it seems very unlikely that Gaddafi can retake Libya. The rebels have pretty decent arms, and many of them are guerrilla fighters - civilians. Kill one civilian, and another may take up his weapon to fight on.But is there a plan to make that happen?
At the town's air base they still have fighter jets and helicopter gunships that theoretically could be used as part of such an offensive.
[...]
So I asked a senior officer at the base, Col Abdullah El Hassi, whether his forces would now take the offensive and join the battle for Tripoli.
"From the first day we took the side of the people's revolution and we are ready to stand up to any attacking forces," he told me.
But he added: "We have not been able to help our brothers in the western region for logistical reasons. We would like to do so, but the airspace has been closed, and there are ground-to-air missiles that we have to take care of. Until we are ready we cannot move further."
It is a key question. So far, much of the revolution has been a battle between protesters, armed only with improvised weaponry, fighting Col Gaddafi's forces.
Last edited by Viking; 02-28-2011 at 09:14.
Runes for good luck:
[1 - exp(i*2π)]^-1
Re: Civil War in Libya
I'm not sure whether I should laugh or cry at this massive fail.
Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban
Re: Civil War in Libya
Complete drivel I'm afraid.
"The republicans will draft your kids, poison the air and water, take away your social security and burn down black churches if elected." Gawain of Orkney
Re: Civil War in Libya
Well, in 1981, it was the monarchy that said no to the would-be fascist revolutionaries when parliament was taken hostage.
At the end of the day politics is just trash compared to the Gospel.
Re: Civil War in Libya
Meanwhile, back in Libya, pro-Gadhafi forces go on the offense.
The opposition is backed by numerous units of the military in the east that joined the uprising, and they hold several bases and Benghazi's airport. But so far, the units do not appear to have melded into a unified fighting force. Gadhafi long kept the military weak, fearing a challenge to his rule, so many units are plagued by shortages of supplies and ammunition.
On Monday, pro-Gadhafi forces retook control of the western border crossings with Tunisia that had fallen under opposition control and they bombed an ammunition depot in the rebel-held east, residents in the area said. The Libyan Defense Ministry denied the bombing.
Regime forces also moved to tighten their ring around two opposition-controlled cities closest to the capital Tripoli — Zawiya and Misrata — where the two sides are locked in standoffs.
An Associated Press reporter saw a large, pro-Gadhafi force massed on the western edge of Zawiya, some 30 miles (50 kilometers) west of Tripoli, with about a dozen armored vehicles along with tanks and jeeps mounted with anti-aircraft guns. An officer said they were from the elite Khamis Brigade, named after one of Gadhafi's sons who commands it. U.S. diplomats have said the brigade is the best-equipped force in Libya.
A resident of Zawiya said by telephone that fighting started in the evening and intensified after sundown when troops loyal to Gadhafi attacked the city from the west and east.
"We were able to repulse the attack. We damaged a tank with an RPG. The mercenaries fled after that," said the resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of government reprisals.
He said Gadhafi called Zawiya's influential tribal leader Mohammed al-Maktouf and warned him that if the rebels don't leave the city's main square by early Tuesday, they will be hit by warplanes. "We are expecting a major battle," the resident said, added that the rebels killed eight soldiers and mercenaries Monday.
Another resident of Zawiya said he heard gunfire well into the night on the outskirts of town.
In Misrata, Libya's third-largest city 125 miles (200 kilometers) east of Tripoli, pro-Gadhafi troops who control part of an air base on the outskirts tried to advance Monday. But they were repulsed by opposition forces, who included residents with automatic weapons and defected army units allied with them, one of the opposition fighters said.
No casualties were reported and the fighter claimed that his side had captured eight soldiers, including a senior officer.
The opposition controls most of the air base, and the fighter said dozens of anti-Gadhafi gunmen have arrived from farther east in recent days as reinforcements.
Several residents of the eastern city of Ajdabiya said Gadhafi's air force also bombed an ammunition depot nearby held by rebels. One resident, 17-year-old Abdel-Bari Zwei, reported intermittent explosions and a fire, and another, Faraj al-Maghrabi, said the facility was partially damaged. The site contains bombs, missiles and ammunition — key for the undersupplied opposition military forces.
State TV carried a statement by Libya's Defense Ministry denying any attempt to bomb the depot. Ajdabiya is about 450 miles (750 kilometers) east of Tripoli along the Mediterranean coast.
Gadhafi supporters said they were in control of the city of Sabratha, west of Tripoli, which has seemed to go back and forth between the two camps in the past week. Several residents told the AP that protesters set fire to a police station, but then were dispersed. Anti-Gadhafi graffiti — "Down with the enemy of freedom" and "Libya is free, Gadhafi must leave" — were scrawled on some walls, but residents were painting them over.
Re: Civil War in Libya
Wouldn't think I'd ever say it, but thanks, PJ. For bringing the topic back to Libya.
I think it's too little, too late. There's no way Gaddafi will survive this.
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Re: Civil War in Libya
And I could add the revolutions in Italy and to some extend in Hungary in 1848 ... But also we have Vietnam (the collapse of South Vietnam for example), Afghanistan and etc. Anyway, my point is that you can not rely on the army consisted of your own people to kill your own people. Gadafi made the blunder to think he can do that as a result he has only the mercenaries on his side. It is simply impossible to win such a war with such a conventional force (unless you have a really a good advantage in numbers (and these soldiers should have nothing in common with the people you oppress) and even then it is not very sure if you can succeed).
Now back to the point. Gadafi is completely isolated. His offensives went to nowhere, his mercenaries may be well armed but limited number. In the next one-three weeks Tripoli will fall. Whether Gadafi will flee, stay and die in the city or try to organise a short-lasting guerilla warfare in the desert is another matter but there won't be happy end for him. You should know when GAME IS OVER.
And never rely too much on conventional military power... Most of the profits are not very long lasting...
Last edited by Prince Cobra; 03-01-2011 at 17:34.
R.I.P. Tosa...
Re: Civil War in Libya
I'm not quite so sure about survival over here. He's turning Libya into a guerrilla civil war, and while he has Tripoli in his hands, Libya cannot be united in any way or driven forwards.
He's desperate, sure, but he's not dumb. I just mourn the loss of so many innocent people who had nothing to do with this. Using anti-aircraft guns on your own people...
Ja mata, TosaInu. You will forever be remembered.
Proud
Been to:
Swords Made of Letters - 1938. The war is looming in France - and Alexandre Reythier does not have much time left to protect his country. A novel set before the war.
A Painted Shield of Honour - 1313. Templar Knights in France are in grave danger. Can they be saved?
Re: Civil War in Libya
Rebels fought back an attack on Misrata yesterday, Libyas third largest city. A bomber was shot down.
Gaffy has deployed most of his troops in and around Tripoly, and even then he is not able to avoid protests in the city, though the protests are put down violently.
He's finished. Just a matter of time now.
Still maintain that crying on the pitch should warrant a 3 match ban
Re: Civil War in Libya
Have Gaddafi's foreces retaken az-Zawiya? I'm getting conflicting reports here.
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