Just had the divide event on my second game (shimazu, hard, 40 provinces). I knew it was close, so i'd turtled up to reinforce my economy and troops before the onslaught. To my surprise it occurred anyway due to me winning a *defensive* battle. I'd assumed it was purely down to number of provinces owned but it seems there are other factors involved.
Happily my three allies (chokosabe, amako and mori) and three vassals decided to stick by me. There's about 120 turns to go and i've got 25 provinces (including kyoto) left to capture, should be doable, as long as my vassals dont get there before me.
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