Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

**Memnon** · 08-26-2011, 05:11

So who do you want us No-Lynchers to lynch, huh? I feel conflicted when I vote, because I know that if I vote for someone who it will affect, then I'll accused of jumping on the bandwagon, if I vote for someone out of the blue, then they do an OMGUS vote, and I'd rather not have the bandwagoners after me, there's just not enough evidence for me to feel confident about any choice yet.

**Tratorix** · 08-26-2011, 05:16

Originally Posted by Memnon

So who do you want us No-Lynchers to lynch, huh? I feel conflicted when I vote, because I know that if I vote for someone who it will affect, then I'll accused of jumping on the bandwagon, if I vote for someone out of the blue, then they do an OMGUS vote, and I'd rather not have the bandwagoners after me, there's just not enough evidence for me to feel confident about any choice yet.

Very concerned about getting lynched, are we? Sounds scummy to me.

Generally you don't catch anyone early on unless your lucky. The problem with No Lynch is that it's effectively a waste, as there is zero chance of catching scum.

**Montmorency** · 08-26-2011, 05:20

No lynch is better for town. It gives us time to identify everyone. Of course, it's not good for the backlog of Mafia games. I just realized that recently.

**Tratorix** · 08-26-2011, 05:28

Originally Posted by Montmorency

No lynch is better for town. It gives us time to identify everyone. Of course, it's not good for the backlog of Mafia games. I just realized that recently.

No it's not. It slows the game to a crawl and means there is rarely a case built against anyone, as theres no real point in posting. Lynches are a finite resource, we only get so many of them so wasting them is bad.

**Montmorency** · 08-26-2011, 05:36

Vey iz mir.

Random lynches are worthless. The less lynches, the more day phases. The more day phases, the more the shirt gets used. The more the shirt gets used, the more people are identified. The more people identified, the likelier it is that one of the mafiosi will be caught. If one of the mafiosi is caught, we use one of our sweet, precious lynches to devastating effect.

**Tratorix** · 08-26-2011, 05:50

Originally Posted by Montmorency

Vey iz mir.

Random lynches are worthless. The less lynches, the more day phases. The more day phases, the more the shirt gets used. The more the shirt gets used, the more people are identified. The more people identified, the likelier it is that one of the mafiosi will be caught. If one of the mafiosi is caught, we use one of our sweet, precious lynches to devastating effect.

Random investigations aren't much better than random lynches. Your way will just make the game last twice as long without actually improving our chances. Unless the mafia are stupid and don't kill people who are proven innocent.

**Montmorency** · 08-26-2011, 06:05

Normal Game (assume 2 Mafia, one lynched midgame):

Day 1 - 17
Day 2 - 15
Day 3 - 13
Day 4 - 11
Day 5 - 9
Day 6 - 7
Day 7 - 5
Day 8 - 3

Investigations - 7

No Lynch Game (assume 2 Mafia):

Day 1 - 17
Day 2 - 16
Day 3 - 15
Day 4 - 14
Day 5 - 13
Day 6 - 12
Day 7 - 11
Day 8 - 10
Day 9 - 9
Day 10 - 8
Day 11 - 7
Day 12 - 6
Day 13 - 5 (assume one mafioso lynched today)
Day 14 - 3

Investigations - 13

Now, probability was never my strong suit, but 13 is a lot better than 6. The Mafia might presumably vote each other for the shirt later in the game. That's fine. That can be used as evidence.

In the statistical sense, No Lynch is quantifiably superior.