C9++ - The Revenge of the Russo [Concluded]

[Diamondeye]

I know this comes out of the blue, but Earthling makes a helluvalot of sense right now. I'm going to replace my vote since the gingerbreadman was just making fun of me anyway.

Unvote; Vote: Zack.

[TheLastDays]

Earthlings post does make sense.

I'd like to hear Winston's reasons for his vote though, as it came before, and especially I'd like him to talk about why he just went on throwing out accusations without explanation when I first asked him for his reasoning.

[Visor]

Vote: Zack

[Visor]

I'm willing to follow Earthling on his theory for today.

[Zack]

Man, you people jump at any chance you have to lynch me.

[Zack]

Oh, and I'm the backup doctor btw.

[Diamondeye]

Okay, benefit of doubt and a clear bandwagoner here makes me unvote and Vote:Visorslash. Since the doc is dead, I think we have to give Zack the benefit of the doubt on his claim, because it looks like there might be a lot of roles (and thus a powerful Mafia faction) which means we need all the protection we can get.

If Zack is telling the truth, we currently have CDDVMB down, at least. If that third kill is an SK, this matches the "weakest" Mafia+SK Setup (ie. TTTTTT) without any further power-roles. Also, if the third kill is an SK, we can figure out now that there has to be an even amount of T's which restricts the possibilities of the setup quite a bit...

Just thinking out loud now, of course.

[TheLastDays]

I don't know if this was good because Zack just painted a target on his back with no one to protect him while I was actually in the lead I think.

Anyway, I agree on the shameless bandwagoning by Visor but would still like to hear more from Winston.

[Winston Hughes]

unvote

If that third kill is an SK, this matches the "weakest" Mafia+SK Setup (ie. TTTTTT) without any further power-roles. Also, if the third kill is an SK, we can figure out now that there has to be an even amount of T's which restricts the possibilities of the setup quite a bit...

You've lost me here. Could you explain how you reach those conclusions?

Anyway, I agree on the shameless bandwagoning by Visor but would still like to hear more from Winston.

Did you miss what I said in post 115?

[TheLastDays]

You've lost me here. Could you explain how you reach those conclusions?

It's the game setup, you can have a look at it in post #3 or #4.

There are seven potential power roles, depending on a random roll.

So far we have
M (innocent child, revealed right at the beginning)
B (Roleblocker, died Night 1)
D (Doctor, died Night 1)
D (Backup Doctor, if Zack's telling the truth)

So we have (at least) four power roles, this is where DE's analysis is off, if I understand the setup correctly. We have a maximum of three Ts in that original role distribution and TTT is a setup without a serial killer, so we have, at least, a TT setup.

This means we have one or two more pro town power roles and we face a Mafia, consisting of three members and a serial killer.

Did you miss what I said in post 115?

Alright, just reread it. I hadn't determined that Zack was innocent, my comment "I don't really think Zacks guilty" was to explain that my early vote on him was a joke vote, motivated by the situation that he complained about being meta gamed all the time on CFC.

So, based on my setup analysis I think it's pretty important we get a Mafia today and I'm not a Mafia, so I would advise us all to search harder.

[Earthling]

Diamondeye why did you say there's a cop?

If it's DDMVB then that matches the two T setup - with 3 mafia and an SK.

If you know for sure there's a cop role, then there are yet more roles out there, or it just means Zack is lying about being backup doctor.

[Earthling]

Right, so to reiterate my position is that really needs answering from Diamondeye. If we can be sure there are no other town roles (well, still the vig and Cahoma is Mason-Child) then Zack's claim makes sense. If people are sure there is a cop, then I would guess Zack has a false claim. Just about anybody else could still be scum by the numbers again so I would be ok switching to Visorslash when this is resolved, he was way too quiet and bandwagonny looking at his posts.

[TheLastDays]

What evidence is there for a cop in the game? Are you sure DE didn't just mean the Vig? Also I forgot the vig in my post.

[Earthling]

No, he listed a cop in the post above but as you and Winston pointed out it didn't really make sense, what he was saying with too many T's in the setup. He could just be trying to confuse us, like how he didn't vote for Zack yesterday but started off on Zack today of his own accord. But if he's mafia I doubt that both the wagons on Zack and Visorslash are safe for him so I don't get that either.

Of course I would be trigger-happy to mark Diamondeye down as the serial killer after all but that's a bit biased.

In and of itself Zack's claim makes sense - backup doctor makes DDMVB and matches the scum that seem to be out there. Still have 3 mafia and an SK though.

I probably should unvote: Zack for now.

[Diamondeye]

What evidence is there for a cop in the game? Are you sure DE didn't just mean the Vig? Also I forgot the vig in my post.

I confused the Cop and the Roleblocker, yes. So most of that analysis is a bit off.

Actually, it means that instead of that C, there needs to be at least one other "special" role if there really is an SK...

[Visor]

I've been quiet because I've been out for most of the day yesterday, and I will be as well today.

Unvote; Vote: O! TLD!

I'M the scummy bandwagoner? For shame.

[Visor]

Unvote;

But that is the way you always play. I'll be back later today and see what's happened. I don't see the case on me though.

Quiet? Total indicator of scum. Please kill me immediately because I am oh-so suspicious because of that.

Bandwagons? ONE. On Zack, who you had posted a good case on at the time.

So yeah. That's it.

[TheLastDays]

And now you're sillily throwing your vote on the next bandwagon to save your own hide? When I was not the one who brought up your bandwagoning?

unvote, vote: Visorslash

[Visor]

In case I can't edit voted posts.

Unvote

[Cahoma]

Vote: Zack
He claimed doctor right after the bandwagon was starting on him. There's noone to protect him, so he's getting killed tonight anyways, which he'd of course know. I think he's lying.

[Visor]

@ Cahoma
You may be right.

[Zack]

Vote: Zack
He claimed doctor right after the bandwagon was starting on him. There's noone to protect him, so he's getting killed tonight anyways, which he'd of course know. I think he's lying.

That doesn't make any sense.

[Diamondeye]

That doesn't make any sense.

Yes it does. Some of us are giving you a chance here though.

Have you recieved a PM stating that you can protect since the doctor died? Or is there a second doctor out there who can protect you tonight?
Please don't answer in this thread (neither you or the eventual other doctor). Just think about it. There might be.

[Visor]

Tally:

1 x Zack (Cahoma)
2 x TLD (Zack, B_Ray
1 x Winston Hughes (TLD)
1 x Visorslash (Diamondeye)

I believe that's correct. TLD, your vote on me is incorrect, I believe, as you didn't bold the unvote part.

[Visor]

I don't know if this was good because Zack just painted a target on his back with no one to protect him while I was actually in the lead I think.

Anyway, I agree on the shameless bandwagoning by Visor but would still like to hear more from Winston.

Actually, you did bring up my "shameless" bandwagoning. Even though I thought his case was reasonable, doubt has been cast with the claim.

[TheLastDays]

Nope, DE brought it up, I only agreed and still do.

My vote on you should be valid. The rules state that an unvote isn't necessary but appreciated. Wasn't on purpose on my part but still it should count.

You are the best choice at the moment. Bandwagoning without much explanation, just following along. Winston is still fishy as well.

Also, B_Ray, care to explain how you voted for Cahoma, the innocent, first and then switched to a bandwagon vote with no reasoning at all?

[Earthling]

Visorslash, I don't think you are being honest in not getting that almost everyone left is something, and I doubt you're going to be the town vig.

Zack claiming backup doctor is very bold and clever as scum but it works by the setup if he is town, and then we just have our 3 mafia and SK so pretty much any lynch works.

vote: Visorslash

[Visor]

and I doubt you're going to be the town vig.

And why?

[Visor]

If I understand this correctly, we have 8 players left right?

3 are scum, 4 are town and one is a serial killer apparently?

[Winston Hughes]

Vote: Earthling

I stopped asking myself who I find suspicious, and started asking myself who I haven't found suspicious, and his name jumped right out at me. His analysis has been sober, considered and, as far as can be expected, accurate. Now, for one thing, this is somewhat out of character for a townie Earthling. Although it's not unusual to see him working out the set-up of a game, when playing as town he is, in my experience, always aggressive and confrontational when it comes to dealing with other players. From the look of the way he's acting here, I'd say his usual "I don't care if I'm suspicious" attitude is absent, and he's trying quite hard to avoid getting in people's faces. For another thing, it's worth remembering that the people in the best position to understand the set-up are those who have the most information from the start and who can confer between themselves behind the scenes, ie. the mafia. This, then, would explain why Earthling was able to move so quickly from dropping in as a replacement, to having a better grip on the game than anyone else appears to have.