Sean Penn is a crock [Falklands Debate]

[rory_20_uk]

The Argentinians took the place last time without causing a single casualty to the garrison. In essence, they were able to walk in.

If they were to try again they are well aware that there is going to be a fight on their hands, so it's all or nothing. The garrison might be brave, highly trained and relatively well equipped, but they would be pummelled from the sea, air and ground. The airstrip would be out of action about 10 minutes after the attack starts, with one hole in the centre of the runway, as it is key. That's flights in prevented. Bringing in gear to repair it isn't that tough, especially if you know it's required.

Rapiers are good systems, especially if they're upgraded. They are relatively mobile, but I imagine they'd be bracketed relatively quickly. Even when they're active they might be able to prevent any fighters getting close to the islands, but I still doubt that the UK could safely get transport planes in, especially with no cover.

The British surface fleet, although small, is pretty modern, but how many missiles before it is crippled? They'd need to be destroyed first, else they'd cause carnage amongst the Argentinian fleet. Last time out, very few exocet missiles were deadly.
Any UK submarines in the area would be another problem. How good are Argentinian anti-sub weaponry? I imagine the sub would be difficult to find as long as it remained inactive which rather negates their utility.

[Tellos Athenaios]

The last time you had 70 troops which was twice the usual number, 1 ship, and that was about it. The Argentinian army was reasonably close to state of the art, parts of their forces were very good (well trained) for the time, they had air superiority, and their commando's landed undetected. The Argentinian army was in fact under orders to take the place without killing anybody. Also, nobody believed the Argentinians would do it, Britain might well have just relinquished the islands after some more negotiations.

By contrast, today you have a proper airbase, AA installations, planes, more than 1000 men, a few more ships and the Argentinian army hasn't kept up with the times ...

[Gregoshi]

A great badpipe march came out of the Falklands War, perhaps my favourite pipe tune: Crags of Tumbledown.

[gaelic cowboy]

By contrast, today you have a proper airbase, AA installations, planes, more than 1000 men, a few more ships and the Argentinian army hasn't kept up with the times ...

Everyone keeps saying that but is it even true and if it were is it even relevant.

How soon before all the islands equipment is used up can they last a month?? of contious fighting.
Also other South American governments seem keen on backing Argentina (this is the real strategic problem for UK and even the USA)

If Brazil decided to back Argentina which looks likely could a UK Naval task force even reach the island? to relieve the garrison.

As usual this will not be solved by pointing to weaponary and saying the question is beyond debate.

[gaelic cowboy]

Any UK submarines in the area would be another problem. How good are Argentinian anti-sub weaponry? I imagine the sub would be difficult to find as long as it remained inactive which rather negates their utility.

A bigger question is would Britain risk it's own ability to defend itself with submarines to liberate the Falklands.

The loss of one Astute class could cripple you strategic plans for decade and for little back, it a bit like how the Americans dont like risking the B2 in real combat cos it's too advanced and too exspensive.

[rory_20_uk]

Quite. Our forces are so limited, and our ability for regeneration is so pathetic that entering any conflict where there is a realistic chance of material losses of key assets is just not possible.

[Hosakawa Tito]

So you're all for abandoning your fellow citizens?

[rory_20_uk]

I'm personally up for hardening the island with decent batteries of ground to air and ground to ship missiles which are effective, have relatively low running costs and are purely a defensive weapon. If one can decimate their aircraft and slaughter amphibious landing craft / warships it will make the odds of an attack much lower. Static gun emplacements and mine fields would be OTT, and increasing the size of the garrison would be extremely expensive as well as increase the logistical difficulty of resupply.

Holding a referendum to see whether the Islanders would like to be made effectively a county of Blighty also seems sensible as then there is an increased chance that NATO would have to do something other than pursue "active defence" in Afghanistan in the event of an attack. France has at least decided to have both carriers as well as planes at the same time.

[gaelic cowboy]

Holding a referendum to see whether the Islanders would like to be made effectively a county of Blighty also seems sensible as then there is an increased chance that NATO would have to do something other than pursue "active defence" in Afghanistan in the event of an attack. France has at least decided to have both carriers as well as planes at the same time.

There might be a problem here since NATO is specifically set up too defend the Europe or North America the South Atlantic is outside it's remit.

The operation in Afghanistan was the only ocassion where article 5 was invoked and that was because of september 11th.

I would not be surprised to see a veto from Germany or France on operations in the South Atlantic.

[rory_20_uk]

Frankly, NATO is "America plus extras". Britain would invoke Article 5 and then meaningfully glare at America - "we jumped into an out of state mission which has gone nowhere and was a mess from the start, how about you help defend territory that is defined as part of our mainland".

The threat of the USA getting involved would be both another reason for Argentina to think twice, and a reason for the USA to apply a lot more diplomatic pressure, lest they get dragged into something they'd really rather not be, or else appear to be an ally of little value unless it is in their own interests which will loose them a fair amount of prestige / influence.

[gaelic cowboy]

So you're all for abandoning your fellow citizens?

Emotion has it's place in this debate but don't make the mistake of relying on it to defend you.