
Originally Posted by
gaelic cowboy
So this would mean Obamacare stays
So no ANHS then for you.
Not necessarily. If the individual mandate is ruled unconstitutional, we will have a situation very similar to New Jersey, which tried to implement universal coverage without a mandate, and is in the quick and predictable process of imploding. This is a concept referred to as "adverse selection" and/or "the death spiral."
The New Jersey effort began in the late 1980s, when rising health care costs were getting the attention of business and political leaders across the country. And a big worry then, as now, was what to do about people who couldn't get insurance from a large employer. When those people tried to get coverage in the individual or small-group market, they underwent scrutiny from insurers, who were wary of taking on big medical risks. "Insurance companies make their money not by being efficient, or managing care, but by weeding out the sick and insuring only the healthy," a frustrated Jim Florio, then governor of New Jersey, said in 1992. [...]
The plan went into effect in late 1993, not long before President Bill Clinton's efforts to reform health insurance nationally started foundering. And, for a while, it looked like Florio and his advisers had done what Clinton and his advisors could not. Nobody believed New Jersey's plan would bring universal coverage to the state. But "people thought this would have a significant impact," says Bruce Siegel, who was the state health commissioner and is now president of the National Association of Public Hospitals. "They thought it would … change the situation for the uninsured."
An early assessment of the program, by researchers at Harvard and sponsored by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, declared the experiment a success. But, by 1996, enrollment in the regulated plans started to slide after peaking at about 186,000. By 2001, it was down to about 85,000. Not coincidentally, the mix of people left in the program changed dramatically. According to a study published in Health Affairs, the median age for enrollees jumped from 41.9 years to 48.4 years in just five years, and premiums rose by between 48 percent and 155 percent, depending on the plan.
These were the tell-tale signs of adverse-selection death spiral: An exodus of healthy people from the insurance pool, leaving behind a population of ever-sicker people whose high health costs keep driving up prices. [...]
New Jersey's experience hardly seems unusual. Kentucky, New York and Vermont all tried to reform their insurance markets without a mandate. All ended up with higher premiums, lower enrollment in insurance or some combination of the two.

Originally Posted by
rvg
If the author were to Mill's logic, then the obvious solution would be to turn away the uninsured at the ER, rather than buying into the mandate mumbo-jumbo.
Raise your hand if you think the public really has the stomach and fortitude to watch people die in the streets. Ain't gonna happen. Two or three well-publicized cases of sweet little girls and innocent grandmas keeling over from preventable causes and we'd be in some form of NHS faster than you can say social darwinism.
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