Euro Area

[PanzerJaeger]

Let's face it, there are only two independent countries in the full sense of the word: That's US and China. Even big European countries have refused to do anything until they got a what-to-do from the Daddy in Washington. UK can't launch it's own nuclear missiles without a go-ahead from Washington.

In which sphere do you see Russia? The country certainly doesn't tow the US line, but the current diplomatic cooperation with China seems to be based more in common interest than any sort of dependence.

[Papewaio]

I don't think there is a single independent economy in the world. Even North Korea relies on Chinese Grain.

China owns a lot of US bonds. China exports to the world, but even China needs to import the raw materials.

Intra dependence makes for stronger and safer economies.

However contracting first world populations is making it difficult for economists of the forever growth mentality to easily adapt to.

[Sarmatian]

In which sphere do you see Russia? The country certainly doesn't tow the US line, but the current diplomatic cooperation with China seems to be based more in common interest than any sort of dependence.

Well, Russia is probably the most independent country after those two, so it's isn't really "in a sphere". It's on the cusp at the moment - culturally, religiously and ethnically it's a western nation but because of economy and political reality it's slowly drifting more and more to the east.

[Beskar]

Francois Hollande is elected as France's new president

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

This comes as no surprise to me, since i've been following this on my BBC News app on my phone. As soon as Hollande looked like he had a real chance, the entire left united behind him.

U

Unspirprising, but not a forgone conclusion.

Now Watch as the markets gobble up France and spit her out a decrepit shell.

There goes the Euro.

So now it's time for the Royal Armouries to start manufacturing ammunition for the Callie 2's main gun again.

[Greyblades]

I'm curious, what is it about Hollande that makes him worse than Sarkozi?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I'm curious, what is it about Hollande that makes him worse than Sarkozi?

In normal circumstance, nothing. At the moment? He believes in spending when countries that spend are not lent money in the markets.

[Greyblades]

Great, and here was me hoping the germans wouldn't be the only Euro country not collapsing.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Now I really wish Louis was here to provide commentary.

[Fragony]

Higher taxes, earlier retirement, great. And when they run out of money the ESM will steal it from Germany and the Netherlands

[rory_20_uk]

From 62 to 60 - when other countries are increasing to 67. And to be paid by taxing those rich and stupid enough to stay put in the country.

If growth was so easy, why wasn't everyone doing it all the time? After putting in place measures to make things less productive this makes it less easy. What, exactly, is France going to create that the rest of the world wants at a reasonable price? The only thing that comes to mind is selling weaponry, which would require doing so to those that actively use them'

[Fragony]

They create debts, lots of them. It's quite telling Merkel has yet to congratulate him. France will soon join the ranks of the other mediteranian countries, where it belongs really

[Kralizec]

From 62 to 60 - when other countries are increasing to 67. And to be paid by taxing those rich and stupid enough to stay put in the country.

I saw a former news anchor who lives in France explain a bit about the French retirement age on telly the other day. Apparently Hollande's plan is to make it possible for people to get a full pension at 60, provided that they've worked continuosly since their 18th.
Taxing the wealthy at 75% is definitely overboard; of course he'll have to get that plan through parliament first. In fact, I'm not a fan of Hollande in general; but if I were French I wouldn't vote to keep him out of office at any cost. Sarkozy's pandering to the Front National was a disgrace (and doesn't seem to have worked anyway), which cost him whatever chance he had of attracting the middle vote (those which went to Bayrou and some others in the first round)

It's quite telling Merkel has yet to congratulate him.

Eh, yes she has.

[InsaneApache]

....and the Greeks managed to vote no one in.

This is where democracy reveals it's flaws. The people just arn't going to vote to starve to death. Although that's what may happen anyway.

[Fragony]

Eh, yes she has.

I stand corrected

[rory_20_uk]

I saw a former news anchor who lives in France explain a bit about the French retirement age on telly the other day. Apparently Hollande's plan is to make it possible for people to get a full pension at 60, provided that they've worked continuosly since their 18th.

Private pension - OK, if that's in the pension rules.

A state pension is supposed to help those who are inform at the end of life. These days one isn't at 60.

[Vladimir]

Why are so many commentators downplaying the differences between Sarkozy and Hollande? I saw one say this morning that Hollande was more similar to Merkel. Are they trying to forestall a panic? Are we going to have pictures of Hollande checking out fine French women? Is Hollande gay? That's what the world wants to know.

[Brenus]

What is so working so well with the cuts? Tell me people… More cut, less money in taxes, more money to spend on benefit, more difficulties to pay the debts, so worst conditions to borrow money… Did it work in Greece? No. In UK? No. In Argentina? No. Where did it work? Tell me…
But you guys think that one individual can get 16 million Euro when other cannot live on a salary… Fine. Not the world I want for my grand-kids…

What Holland can do worst than Sarkoleon? You mean, apart receiving money from dictators, destroying businesses and putting his cronies at strategic points in media and high positions? Or perhaps following orders from Merkel? What can be worst? This guy dug the debt more than nobody else in French Fifth Republic history and he wanted to give lessons?
He is one of the most corrupted politician we had, and the most hypocritical b*****d ever elected. Playing good catholic (divorced twice), betrayed everybody he could (Chirac), destroying the French Nation and its valour by discriminating people by colour, religion and even food…
Laic with the Muslim but being the Chanoine of Latran, he deeply disgusts me. If France would applied what he wanted to do few year ago, he wouldn’t be there as his father would have deported back to the Hungarian Communist Dictatorship.
I didn’t vote Hollande at the first turn, and he is not my choice. But, by the gods I don’t believe in, the crook is gone and hopefully will go to jail.

[Vladimir]

What is so working so well with the cuts? Tell me people… More cut, less money in taxes, more money to spend on benefit, more difficulties to pay the debts, so worst conditions to borrow money… Did it work in Greece? No. In UK? No. In Argentina? No. Where did it work? Tell me…
But you guys think that one individual can get 16 million Euro when other cannot live on a salary… Fine. Not the world I want for my grand-kids…

What Holland can do worst than Sarkoleon? You mean, apart receiving money from dictators, destroying businesses and putting his cronies at strategic points in media and high positions? Or perhaps following orders from Merkel? What can be worst? This guy dug the debt more than nobody else in French Fifth Republic history and he wanted to give lessons?
He is one of the most corrupted politician we had, and the most hypocritical b*****d ever elected. Playing good catholic (divorced twice), betrayed everybody he could (Chirac), destroying the French Nation and its valour by discriminating people by colour, religion and even food…
Laic with the Muslim but being the Chanoine of Latran, he deeply disgusts me. If France would applied what he wanted to do few year ago, he wouldn’t be there as his father would have deported back to the Hungarian Communist Dictatorship.
I didn’t vote Hollande at the first turn, and he is not my choice. But, by the gods I don’t believe in, the crook is gone and hopefully will go to jail.

A little bit of copy/paste and this is true for most politicians.

It's not "what's working so well" but an issue of what is worse? Another comment from this morning: "If growth was so easy, why wasn't everyone doing it?"

Hollandaise is taking advantage of voter agitation and conservatism. Money begets corruption. An increase in government spending leads to an increase in corruption, even if it is socially acceptable corruption.

[rory_20_uk]

Where did these massive debts come from, if spending money works so well? The UK economy should be doing great, as we had a decade of increasing spending. You seem to want to focus on measures to rectify the deficits without acknowledging how they got there. The UK has a AAA rating mainly as it is managing to show it can repay debts. Greece spent its way into its current situation.

I'm not interested in ideologies, making announcements that in principle make things better but in practice worse, such as increasing taxes just because.

[gaelic cowboy]

I'm curious, what is it about Hollande that makes him worse than Sarkozi?

the last time France voted for a Socialist Prez he near broke the country.

[Vladimir]

the last time France voted for a Socialist Prez he near broke the country.

Aren't they already broke? What then?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

What is so working so well with the cuts? Tell me people… More cut, less money in taxes, more money to spend on benefit, more difficulties to pay the debts, so worst conditions to borrow money… Did it work in Greece? No. In UK? No. In Argentina? No. Where did it work? Tell me…
But you guys think that one individual can get 16 million Euro when other cannot live on a salary… Fine. Not the world I want for my grand-kids…

What Holland can do worst than Sarkoleon? You mean, apart receiving money from dictators, destroying businesses and putting his cronies at strategic points in media and high positions? Or perhaps following orders from Merkel? What can be worst? This guy dug the debt more than nobody else in French Fifth Republic history and he wanted to give lessons?
He is one of the most corrupted politician we had, and the most hypocritical b*****d ever elected. Playing good catholic (divorced twice), betrayed everybody he could (Chirac), destroying the French Nation and its valour by discriminating people by colour, religion and even food…
Laic with the Muslim but being the Chanoine of Latran, he deeply disgusts me. If France would applied what he wanted to do few year ago, he wouldn’t be there as his father would have deported back to the Hungarian Communist Dictatorship.
I didn’t vote Hollande at the first turn, and he is not my choice. But, by the gods I don’t believe in, the crook is gone and hopefully will go to jail.

It's simply arithmatic - you cannot spend more than you make if you cannot borrow. Hollande can only raise spending if he can convince the markets to lend, and that is unlikely at the moment.

As you say - Greece, they spent so much on propping up industries that when they began to cut government expenditure the economy collapsed because it couldn't function without high public spending. Sooner or later governments with bloated budgets must cut spending or go broke. In France already over 55% of your GDP goes in taxes, which means that the public sector is powering more of the economy that the private sector and that is a problem because the public sector cannot make enough money to pay its bills.

In the UK we have had what amount to quite modest cuts in services, given that public spending was above 50% of GDP and once all the cuts have been made wwe will have cut less than Labour expected to AND spending will still be higher than 6 years ago, sitting around 2207-8 levels. More to the point, the cuts in services and budgets have not led to a fall in government expenditure, because the money saved is used to service the debt, i.e. close the budget defecit.

France is currently losing money to the markets, if you do not enact cuts you will simple become even poorer. Hollande must deal the hand he was dealt, not try to turn a pair of twos into a straight flush.

[gaelic cowboy]

@ Brenus well we could always cut less instead of spendin more while still keep a path of cuts just taking longer to get there so as not to poison the economy. The stability/austerity pact needs scraping as the targets are unsustainable and merely encourage deep deep cuts which the markets are not asking for now.

Also most the debts should either be renegotiated or cancelled the ECB is effectively burning money to balance a book that could easy be tossed out. Greece's debts should just be totally forgotten no one is ever getting paid there and everyone knows it but the Troika.

Countries could decide themselves if they wanted later to pay back extra debts after when they are on a sound footing.

[Fragony]

@ Brenus well we could always cut less instead of spendin more while still keep a path of cuts just taking longer to get there so as not to poison the economy. The stability/austerity pact needs scraping as the targets are unsustainable and merely encourage deep deep cuts which the markets are not asking for now.

Also most the debts should either be renegotiated or cancelled the ECB is effectively burning money to balance a book that could easy be tossed out. Greece's debts should just be totally forgotten no one is ever getting paid there and everyone knows it but the Troika.

Countries could decide themselves if they wanted later to pay back extra debts after when they are on a sound footing.

Kidding me, why don't you google the ESM.

[Furunculus]

french gov't already cosumes 55% of gdp, hollande wants it to devour even more!

[Vladimir]

french gov't already cosumes 55% of gdp, hollande wants it to devour even more!

I really want to know how they do that. Like was said previously they could do it through arms sales but they're having problems finding customers. They sell to the Russians but unlike Russia they don't have huge fossil fuel reserves.

Do you mean consume or does government spending comprise 55% of the economy?

[Brenus]

“french gov't already consumes 55% of gdp, hollande wants it to devour even more!” Yeah, that is how they made the fear factor. The French Debts title is about 7 years. In order to bow the population to the banksters they built this legend. It is like to compare the price of your mortgage of your house (paid on 25 years period) with one year of your income.
THIS IS A LIE.
And this was for all countries.
If you compare the France Income during 7 years and the duration of the titles of the debt, you reach around 12 % debt. I give you that not so frightening, so the crooks at the head of the European Central Bank prefers the Fear Factor One.
Concerning France, the 5th or 6th World most powerful economic power, 2nd on the European Continent: once upon a time, a colleague (successful businessman) told me this: If you owe 100 French Francs to a bank, it your problem. If you owe 100 million, it is its problem.
So solution is multiple: You say to the banskters: We don’t pay. Or we renegotiate, or we pay only what is legitimate.
You may have as well the US solution: Print money and makes your Central Bank buying your debts with your money.

“Kidding me, why don't you google the ESM.” Yeah. This one Sarkozy and Holland did keep it quiet.

“It's simply arithmatic - you cannot spend more than you make if you cannot borrow”.
Again that is ideology. There is not a thing such the economic law. Not for a State. You do, because you can’t increase your income or cancelled your debt. Well, you can if you are rich enough. It is political, that is why we all bailed out our banks. Look at history, at the chapter how England won over Napoleon, or how Lenin didn’t pay, or Hitler and the list is quite long. You may disagree with the process but it exists. Again, the Banks were quite happy each time to have at least a little bit back, knowing they never lost money anyway. Just the profits were not as juicy as initially thought.
Or again, look at the USA today. If all the dollars owners decided to use their dollars there are not enough goods on Earth… But having the 1st army of the world and spending 50% of all military expenditure helps to keep the dollar as money of reference…
You do know that the money you borrow to a bank doesn’t exist and you will create it do you? So you spend more than you have…

“France is currently losing money to the markets, if you do not enact cuts you will simple become even poorer.” Ideology: Greece did what you are saying and the result is the debt is even bigger than when it started.
And who made this debt? The Conservative Government help by Fitch, Moody’s & Poors in fiddling the figures. And who was at the head of this agency: the actual President of the European central bank. What a chance! They ruined a country and now are making money on it. And they implement the same plan on Italy, Portugal and Spain. And they were ready to do the same on France thanks to the Thief in Chief Sarkozy. This one failed, just. They hope Hollande will surrender as fast as Sarkozy and he will probably.
The fact that a country can borrow money only on the Market was a political decision as the ECB could if politically instructed give directly to the States at the same rate it give to the "Market", so 0.5%. I do remid you the the Greek Debt is 4 % of the EU GDP. But doing this would cut the Banksters and their Political friends massive profit.

The only hope is to put back the ECB under the political control of elected Parliaments. But first, it is urgent to put more democracy in EU (I know, hard)and fear in the Banksters (quite easy).

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“french gov't already consumes 55% of gdp, hollande wants it to devour even more!” Yeah, that is how they made the fear factor. The French Debts title is about 7 years. In order to bow the population to the banksters they built this legend. It is like to compare the price of your mortgage of your house (paid on 25 years period) with one year of your income.
THIS IS A LIE.
And this was for all countries.
If you compare the France Income during 7 years and the duration of the titles of the debt, you reach around 12 % debt. I give you that not so frightening, so the crooks at the head of the European Central Bank prefers the Fear Factor One.
Concerning France, the 5th or 6th World most powerful economic power, 2nd on the European Continent: once upon a time, a colleague (successful businessman) told me this: If you owe 100 French Francs to a bank, it your problem. If you owe 100 million, it is its problem.
So solution is multiple: You say to the banskters: We don’t pay. Or we renegotiate, or we pay only what is legitimate.
You may have as well the US solution: Print money and makes your Central Bank buying your debts with your money.

Not the debt, government expenditure. For every Euro the French economy generates, around 55-56 cents go to the State in taxes, which are then used to pay for the wages of government employies and government projects. The net result of this is that a 10% cut in state spending accounts for over 5% of GDP, the French economy is unbalenced and the over-large state is losing money every year.

That's a problem, because the state can't go bust, and if it did 55% of the French economy would simply cease to exist - that's the problem.

“France is currently losing money to the markets, if you do not enact cuts you will simple become even poorer.” Ideology: Greece did what you are saying and the result is the debt is even bigger than when it started.
And who made this debt? The Conservative Government help by Fitch, Moody’s & Poors in fiddling the figures. And who was at the head of this agency: the actual President of the European central bank. What a chance! They ruined a country and now are making money on it. And they implement the same plan on Italy, Portugal and Spain. And they were ready to do the same on France thanks to the Thief in Chief Sarkozy. This one failed, just. They hope Hollande will surrender as fast as Sarkozy and he will probably.
The fact that a country can borrow money only on the Market was a political decision as the ECB could if politically instructed give directly to the States at the same rate it give to the "Market", so 0.5%. I do remid you the the Greek Debt is 4 % of the EU GDP. But doing this would cut the Banksters and their Political friends massive profit.

The only hope is to put back the ECB under the political control of elected Parliaments. But first, it is urgent to put more democracy in EU (I know, hard)and fear in the Banksters (quite easy).

Greece has no access to funding, so they have to cut spending or they simply default on payments (which they are already doing, they can't pay state employees). The size of the Greek State means that even small cuts causes great ructions - so they have the same problem as France but much more so. The State is so large it is impossible to restrain spending, which in turn makes it impossible to balance the books.

[Brenus]

That is the proof of what I said: The over spending is due to the taxes' cut thanks to the conservatives and Sarkozy. He was so keen to pay them back than he crated more taxes exemption than he could. Then, having cut the State's income, he blamed on the Social Service. The massive Conservative propaganda Machine then started to convince that the State was failing in order to realise the privatisation of big national Companies as EDF ot SNCF. The funny thing is they took the trick from the Communist Countries when they "liberalised" the market. In UK, Cameron is doing it for NHS. You cut the staff, then the system can't work, so you claim that privatisation is the only solution... Clever...
About Greece, create more taxes, obliged the Church to pay taxes, and the Rich to do so as well. The poor pay their like in UK, when they are paid. In fact, Greece is the exemple of the Liberal?Conservative economic model failure. They didn't paid taxes, the system collapse.