Euro Area

[Vladimir]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contracts.html

Really? I heard on the drive to work that they will pay for everyone, including Spain, partially by redistributing the debt. I suppose the EU is now a Marxist wet dream.

Also heard that Greece is expected to leave the Euro after the June 17 elections.

[Fragony]

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Do you mean e.g. 9 Austerity Plans for Greece and an even bigger debt than when it all started?

"France lowers the retirement age when it should go up" Why it should go up?" To kill people before retirement as it is happening in the 8 European Countries that just did it? That is a solution to resolve the pension, I grant you this. But for the youth unemployment, I doubt.
Of course 6 on 10 of the + 60 are yet out of job due to illness and employment. So to postpone retirement is just done in order to cut on cost, not because "we live longer so we have to work longer". Welcome in the Liberal? Capitalist Financial world where Profits trump Humans.
We lived longer because we stop to work earlier but apparently it is not allowed to live old and Healthy for the average person.

Face your new reality mia muca the fat days are over and it's going to hurt really badly if you expect anything from the government, they don't have the money anymore. So you better work a little harder, better accept that you will be working for a longer time, and better accept that you are screwed anyway and might just have to fight for your life.

[gaelic cowboy]

Really? I heard on the drive to work that they will pay for everyone, including Spain, partially by redistributing the debt. I suppose the EU is now a Marxist wet dream.

Also heard that Greece is expected to leave the Euro after the June 17 elections.

I expect the reply to redistribution of debt will be something along the lines of "Get Stuffed" or whatever the equivalent is in German.

They cant afford to bailout Spain and they cannot help the Spainish banks unless they bailout Spain.

Course it would be simpler if people just admitted these banks are broke and there never paying back the debt.

Unless the ECB/ESM/EFSF is allowed to stuff as much monopoly money down every eurozone bank as required this only ends in "I Told You So"

[Fragony]

I expect the reply to redistribution of debt will be something along the lines of "Get Stuffed" or whatever the equivalent is in German.

They cant afford to bailout Spain and they cannot help the Spainish banks unless they bailout Spain.

Course it would be simpler if people just admitted these banks are broke and there never paying back the debt.

Unless the ECB/ESM/EFSF is allowed to stuff as much monopoly money down every eurozone bank as required this only ends in "I Told You So"

And than what, Spain is old sick and nearly dead just like all of the Mediteranian. Their youths are comming here because we do have jobs for them, it is bleedin to death. I have no idea what can save the garliczone from becomming a nightmare.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." Do you mean e.g. 9 Austerity Plans for Greece and an even bigger debt than when it all started?

Well yes, but that also applies to "borrow to pay for everything and it won't cause a debt crisis."

"France lowers the retirement age when it should go up" Why it should go up?" To kill people before retirement as it is happening in the 8 European Countries that just did it? That is a solution to resolve the pension, I grant you this. But for the youth unemployment, I doubt.
Of course 6 on 10 of the + 60 are yet out of job due to illness and employment. So to postpone retirement is just done in order to cut on cost, not because "we live longer so we have to work longer". Welcome in the Liberal? Capitalist Financial world where Profits trump Humans.
We lived longer because we stop to work earlier but apparently it is not allowed to live old and Healthy for the average person.

When people often live to 100 a retirement age of 60 means those people spend 60% of their lives on welfare as either juvaniles or pensioners. A retirement age of 70 makes that 50%.

Not everybody lives to retirement - some people have heart attack at 50 or die of cancer at 20, drawing your pension is not an automatic right. The pension is just there to support you once you can no longer support yourself and most people CAN still support themselves at 70, and certainly at 65.

[rory_20_uk]

Life expectancy has shot up (note suppressed zero).



And the state is spending more and more on the Welfare state. Oddly, there is not a massive upswing under Labour and a savage cut under the Conservatives. There is just a rise (barring predicted figures for the next 3 years where we shoot down to levels of suffering not seen since 2008 - possibly even before!)

[gaelic cowboy]

And than what, Spain is old sick and nearly dead just like all of the Mediteranian. Their youths are comming here because we do have jobs for them, it is bleedin to death. I have no idea what can save the garliczone from becomming a nightmare.

The question of "And then what" makes no sense if you think about it for a second because recessions End eventually Frag.

[rory_20_uk]

And than what, Spain is old sick and nearly dead just like all of the Mediteranian. Their youths are comming here because we do have jobs for them, it is bleedin to death. I have no idea what can save the garliczone from becomming a nightmare.

The "nightmare" that they live is with a health service that over 90% of the population don't have, wages multiples greater than the world average and labour laws that are vastly better than most. They also get state pensions and unemployment benefit again things that are unheard of in many countries.

Theoretically, getting back up is simple - reduction in standards of living due to reduced state aid, reduced salaries and a reduced social safety net. Work longer for less and work will quickly come. Does anyone want that? Of course not! We all want to earn more as we get older, to give our children more, to live longer in nicer conditions. We are, frankly, spoilt.

In other parts of the world working a 12 hour shift on a landfill site is a job for literally the whole family. Collecting human waste as fertiliser to sell? Yup, that's done. Others people collect sulphur out of a volcano. Sure, the fumes will fry their lungs in a matter of years ( a wet cloth only does so much) but their alternative is to starve to death now.

[Fragony]

The question of "And then what" makes no sense if you think about it for a second because recessions End eventually Frag.

Not if we also have to finance multiculture, that burden wasn't there in past recoveries. There are too many mouths to feed there are too many people who don't add anything. It cannot be sustained in the end. Once the shops won't get the deliveries anymore there will be trouble and it's unrealistic that the aging population of the garlic zone can do anything to prevent that. I think this is just the beginning and that we have yet to see how nasty it can get.

[Brenus]

“Also heard that Greece is expected to leave the Euro after the June 17 elections.” Yeah, heard that as well. The problem is of course nobody explains how. All these experts just forget one little useless thing: There is no provision in the Lisbon Treaty to oblige Greece to do so. That will be fun. So Greece can cancel all payments of the debt and still be part of the Euro. What the banks will do about it? Do you think negotiation will start? I do. Because if Greece defaults, the German and French banking system will collapse, then the Euro collapse then Europe collapse, then USA collapse.
And to whom the Chinese will sell the I-pad and I-phone and others I? Not to their workers, not paid enough… That is the beauty of it…

“Face your new reality mia muca the fat days are over and it's going to hurt really badly if you expect anything from the government, they don't have the money anymore.”
Of course that is not the reality, darling. That is ideology, capitalistic one. Never our countries were so rich and produce more. It is time to land, love. The poor riches will have to give back some of the bonuses, shame… The Governments have no money because they gave it to their Friends exemption to pay taxes and Fiscal Evasion. Strong with the weak and weak with the Strong... I give you it is easier to bully handicapped on their wheelchair than Millionaires... Just a question of courage...
Obviously, riches created no job at all (see Greece). So, a re-think will be done. Old IMF and banksters solutions didn’t work and never did…

“So you better work a little harder, better accept that you will be working for a longer time, and better accept that you are screwed anyway and might just have to fight for your life.” Tell the Riches. They might think it is time to stop the greed culture… They might have to leave countries and fight for their lives… They never did really, work I mean…

“I have no idea what can save the garliczone from becoming a nightmare”:
Quite easy: ECB become equivalent of the Federal Bank, give loans to Greece (between 2 to 4 % of EU GDP) and other States at 1 % (like for Private Banks), this stop all speculation. Negotiate with proper concern and not greed for recovery and not short term profit. Put the responsible for the mess (Capitalistic Banksters and their Politician accomplices) in jail for thievery, robbery and all charges you can find.
Put more democracy in the EU (hard but not impossible).

“The pension is just there to support you once you can no longer support yourself and most people CAN still support themselves at 70, and certainly at 65.” That is funny because European Statistic tells exactly the opposite. I repeat: 6 of 10 over 60 (and probably 55 for the less qualified) are out of job for health or unemployment.
The same tells that in Germany the life expectation in going down for the first time in history. And surprise, it is true in all countries that made people works longer (so be in jobless subsidies that are less than pensions). So less food, less access to health care, choices between heating and heating, increase in suicide, welcome in the Civilisation…

[gaelic cowboy]

Not if we also have to finance multiculture, that burden wasn't there in past recoveries. There are too many mouths to feed there are too many people who don't add anything. It cannot be sustained in the end. Once the shops won't get the deliveries anymore there will be trouble and it's unrealistic that the aging population of the garlic zone can do anything to prevent that. I think this is just the beginning and that we have yet to see how nasty it can get.

Well yes it could get very bad when the Bratwurstzone gets even older and keeps demanding the younger South keep chopping it's garlic in half.

[Greyblades]

Welp its a good thing that us Brits have a good fallback of reopening the coal mines again, generatinng new jobs and an exportable resource at the same time. Oh wait, conservative govenment, nevermind, pass the suicide pistol.

I've been given a new viewpoint on the current social econimic system and I currently think it makes my viewpoint better than everything else, sue me.

[rory_20_uk]

“The pension is just there to support you once you can no longer support yourself and most people CAN still support themselves at 70, and certainly at 65.” That is funny because European Statistic tells exactly the opposite. I repeat: 6 of 10 over 60 (and probably 55 for the less qualified) are out of job for health or unemployment.
The same tells that in Germany the life expectation in going down for the first time in history. And surprise, it is true in all countries that made people works longer (so be in jobless subsidies that are less than pensions). So less food, less access to health care, choices between heating and heating, increase in suicide, welcome in the Civilisation…

What is the rate in countries where there is not unemployment benefit / health benefit or pension? Otherwise is it people are unable to work or view than on balance they'd rather not and take the money.

And you are assuming that firstly that increasing life expectancy year on year is just to be expected, and secondly that the sole cause is working longer, not any other of the myriad health related problems.

[Fragony]

Well yes it could get very bad when the Bratwurstzone gets even older and keeps demanding the younger South keep chopping it's garlic in half.

We are not the problem, we are on the producing side of the sphere. Don't forget that we are the third biggest food exporter in the world and that's just the Netherlands, we'll live. The garlic zone really has to reconsider a few things, work as long as we do here and don't take anything for granted especially.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands#Economy

http://www.dutchdailynews.com/the-ne...sh-vegetables/

We are not as small as it seems

Also consider this

'The country continues to be one of the leading European nations for attracting foreign direct investment and is one of the five largest investors in the United States.'

We are tied to the dollar, our doom is also theirs, we can play hardball

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“The pension is just there to support you once you can no longer support yourself and most people CAN still support themselves at 70, and certainly at 65.” That is funny because European Statistic tells exactly the opposite. I repeat: 6 of 10 over 60 (and probably 55 for the less qualified) are out of job for health or unemployment.
The same tells that in Germany the life expectation in going down for the first time in history. And surprise, it is true in all countries that made people works longer (so be in jobless subsidies that are less than pensions). So less food, less access to health care, choices between heating and heating, increase in suicide, welcome in the Civilisation…

Oh piffle.

My Grandfather worked until 70, Grandmother likewise - my father is still working at 61...

6 out of 10 over sixties are not out of work here - it's not an age issue it's a cultural issue, or a general health issue. The suggestion that people become uselss at 60 because they are not longer able to work is not only absurd but also offensive and docially divisive.

There are plenty of times throughout history when life expectancy has gone down, the industrial era for example, so don't pull that one.

German life expectancy has risen rapidly since 1972, a recent drop in the last few years therefore means little.

Graph: http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&idim=country:DEU&dl=en&hl=en&q=germany+life+expectanc y#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_le00_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim= country:DEU&ifdim=region&tstart=-302144400000&tend=1244156400000&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false

France Graph: http://www.google.co.uk/publicdata/e...l=en&ind=false

How long, on average, should people draw a pension from the stae for?

ten years? Fifteen? If the latter answer, then France's pension age should rise to 66, if the former, 71.

[Vladimir]

Are you trying to reason with an Old School socialist? Someone who believes a Greek collapse will lead to a global collapse has left reason behind.

[gaelic cowboy]

We are not the problem, we are on the producing side of the sphere. Don't forget that we are the third biggest food exporter in the world and that's just the Netherlands, we'll live. The garlic zone really has to reconsider a few things, work as long as we do here and don't take anything for granted especially.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands#Economy

http://www.dutchdailynews.com/the-ne...sh-vegetables/

We are not as small as it seems

Also consider this

'The country continues to be one of the leading European nations for attracting foreign direct investment and is one of the five largest investors in the United States.'

We are tied to the dollar, our doom is also theirs, we can play hardball

The problem is still in the banks and no ammount of production will save those banks.

[Fragony]

The problem is still in the banks and no ammount of production will save those banks.

All money has long be detracted from the Southern banks we don't have anything on it really. Same goes for Germany. Good luck without us

[gaelic cowboy]

All money has long be detracted from the Southern banks we don't have anything on it really. Same goes for Germany. Good luck without us

you still dont get it do you Frag.

In a common currency like the Euro the banks are bailed out by each national government at the insistence of the ECB with no debt haircuts.

Removing your currency from southern banks does not remove the liability of the southern bank to pay back any debt.

Unfortunately these liabilities are too great hence we have bailouts because people dont want to crystalise the losses.

The longer this goes on the more dominoes will fall and when dominoes fall unless you take a few out it doesnt stop.

[Fragony]

you still dont get it do you Frag.

In a common currency like the Euro the banks are bailed out by each national government at the insistence of the ECB with no debt haircuts.

Removing your currency from southern banks does not remove the liability of the southern bank to pay back any debt.

Unfortunately these liabilities are too great hence we have bailouts because people dont want to crystalise the losses.

The longer this goes on the more dominoes will fall and when dominoes fall unless you take a few out it doesnt stop.

You don't get it, we already pulled back all investment in the south and all the money to pay for it. The Netherlands does not not need the European union we get along with Germany and the UK just fine. The rest of Europe is dead weight for us unless you get something out of being adventurous

[gaelic cowboy]

You don't get it, we already pulled back all investment in the south and all the money to pay for it. The Netherlands does not not need the European union we get along with Germany and the UK just fine. The rest of Europe is dead weight for us unless you get something out of being adventurous

You pulled back accounts and investments but the debts are still owed and crucially can still be booked in the Netherlands assets.

If the debt is not paid it will become by default a loss but who knows who has debt where and with who. Just cos netherlands has no money in Garlictown does not mean it's not exposed to a liquidity shock.

If a Dutch bank lent to an Austrian bank then in turn the Austrians might have a liability with a Spanish bank, if the Spanish bank falls then it is in the lap of the gods that the Dutch bank doesnt go too.

We cannot know where this will end if we try to either run away from it or smash the Eurozone, but my point has been all along that it's precisely were we are headed so far.

My belief is they should start putting plans in place to scrap it, but they wont do that so likely it will crash and burn us all.

[Fragony]

I think a lot of the big countries are secretly liking us for holding some things back

[gaelic cowboy]

I think a lot of the big countries are secretly liking us for holding some things back

They havent a clue what there at sure there just startled rabbits in cars headlights, we think all this inaction and prevarication is strategy and tactics when in fact it is more denial and wishful thinking.


We will wake up one morning to see banks runs everywhere cos they changed or people feared a currency change over a holiday weekend.

[rory_20_uk]

Given that currently all money in the EU is interchangable, and that countries' currencies will depreciate if they leave why not have all one's money in a german bank account and transfer small amounts when required to the local "bank". What possible reason does one have in leaving all one's money in a Greek bank (or even as Greek notes) where one could wake up and find you've lost 30-50% of your purchasing power overnight.

Is there a drawback to this that i am missing? Even if the interest rate was a percentage point or so lower, I'd accept this until the Troubles are over.

Who would in their right mind lend money to these banks? Should the Government borrow more for the banks? Except that they can't. Thus other governments have to give them money and take on the risks that the locals are sensibly refusing to take.

[Brenus]

“And you are assuming that firstly that increasing life expectancy year on year is just to be expected, and secondly that the sole cause is working longer, not any other of the myriad health related problems.”
Err, no. I didn’t assume that life expectancy will always increase. What I was not expecting was to be shorter…
Then, the only circumstances in the 8 countries have in common is the increase of the working life: Because, in fact, we are better treated in Europe than we never have been: Better food, healthy life, social welfare, health and safety things in workplace, no more children in factories, less pollution due to no more old fashion industries, better life…

“My Grandfather worked until 70, Grandmother likewise - my father is still working at 61...” My grand-father died at 55, my father at 51. There are no male from my family who crossed the 60. My uncle might in few years, but notice he was an engineer, whereas my grand-father worked in the Railways and my father was soldier then worker… Oh, wait, perhaps there is a cause to effect factor…

“The suggestion that people become useless at 60 because they are not longer able to work is not only absurd but also offensive and docially divisive.”
For you the only use of human being is to work? You live in a strange world.
Sorry, I have other dream for elderly people than to work until they die. The time to walk with the grandchildren, to share with them a part of the journey, or with the nephews and nieces… Small pleasures, ambitions fulfilled, to enjoy a sun set, when you look behind and have the time to share, building memories to your younger family who, if you are lucky, will remember me like I remember my grand-father and father I had to know so shortly.
I gave to my country time in the Army, I worked all my adult life (and I am still working), sometimes for nothing as a volunteer, I am not asking for a favour. I am asking the State to fulfil the contract I signed when I paid my taxes and my pension.

“Someone who believes a Greek collapse will lead to a global collapse has left reason behind.” Explain how it will not? I gave no the reason it might if wrong decisions are taken. Tell me how the collapse of 5 major banks in France and Germany will not shake the system and can’t produce what I am saying?
The Collapse on one Currency in Germany produced a War, if you remember… Or learn.

[gaelic cowboy]

Given that currently all money in the EU is interchangable, and that countries' currencies will depreciate if they leave why not have all one's money in a german bank account and transfer small amounts when required to the local "bank". What possible reason does one have in leaving all one's money in a Greek bank (or even as Greek notes) where one could wake up and find you've lost 30-50% of your purchasing power overnight.

Is there a drawback to this that i am missing? Even if the interest rate was a percentage point or so lower, I'd accept this until the Troubles are over.

Who would in their right mind lend money to these banks? Should the Government borrow more for the banks? Except that they can't. Thus other governments have to give them money and take on the risks that the locals are sensibly refusing to take.

You can indeed do that because capital controls are illegal in the EU.

Some people in Ireland actually did this before the bailout.

On the question of who would lend to these banks the answer in reality is that no one should bar the ECB. They should just print a pile of monopoly money and drown everyone in liquidity. The reality is there wont be inflation anyway cos most of the money will just dissappear out the back door to fill holes in balance sheets.

[rory_20_uk]

“And you are assuming that firstly that increasing life expectancy year on year is just to be expected, and secondly that the sole cause is working longer, not any other of the myriad health related problems.”
Err, no. I didn’t assume that life expectancy will always increase. What I was not expecting was to be shorter…
Then, the only circumstances in the 8 countries have in common is the increase of the working life: Because, in fact, we are better treated in Europe than we never have been: Better food, healthy life, social welfare, health and safety things in workplace, no more children in factories, less pollution due to no more old fashion industries, better life…

It is likely that there will be slight year on year variation. If in the next 10 years the graph I posted above shows a consistent fall then that is concerning. You are again stating correlation as causation. You are also assuming that everything you have stated improves live expectancy and also that we have better food and a healthier life when we are becoming as a nation more obese with a higher calorific intake. Better life? Just a statement all alone by itself.

Good thing you don't work in my industry. We have to have referenced evidence as opposed to merely stating opinion as fact.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“My Grandfather worked until 70, Grandmother likewise - my father is still working at 61...” My grand-father died at 55, my father at 51. There are no male from my family who crossed the 60. My uncle might in few years, but notice he was an engineer, whereas my grand-father worked in the Railways and my father was soldier then worker… Oh, wait, perhaps there is a cause to effect factor…

My Grandfather was an Anti-Air gunner and engineer during the war, blown up twice, after the war (and before) he was an electrian, worked on building sites etc. My father joined the merchant navy at 15 and worked on everything from tankers to sailing ships - he once spent 3 days on a burning wreck trying to put it out, then he became a sheep farmer and after that packed up a bus driver. HIS father was an engineer and died of a heart attack at 46 or there abouts.

So your family is predisposed to die young, that's unfortunate. I know a chap, every man in his family dies of a massive heart attack at 46, he is the first man in his family, on his father's side, to still be alive at 50 in living memory. The Pesion age is not designed for people who die young.

As I said, some people die at 20 from cancer, some at 40, the State has a responsibility to the whole of society though - not you as an individual.

[Brenus]

“You are also assuming that everything you have stated improves live expectancy and also that we have better food and a healthier life when we are becoming as a nation more obese with a higher calorific intake. Better life? Just a statement all alone by itself.”
Are you assuming that I assume that McDonald is healthy Food? You put words on my mouth.

I don’t know in which industry you work but I hope it is not essential to just have a simple view on: XIX century, life expectation, XX century, life expectation, then to conclude that the XX is better than the XIX. I probably don’t have your power of analyse and stay on the surface, but, as a humble historian, I may have the opinion is our life is better than the one of our ancestors.
Now, it is your right to think that London of the XIX was better, as the water was so polluted than population had to drink beer, when childrenwere working in factories and young girls selling their virginity was the top to do, I beg to disagree.
If you want to compare with even the second half the XX century, we can.

It is true that we can become obese, privilege that was reserved only for few privileged castes not so long time ago. If we die from cancer, it is because we don’t die of hunger. You might analyse that it is not a progress, I do think it is. We have alzheimer because we live long enough to be able to get it. I do understand that in your opinion it might not be a real progress…

You just brush aside facts that don’t support your view. I do the same, but I don’t pretend different.

“the State has a responsibility to the whole of society though - not you as an individual.” A State is a political construction, a contract for a community to have common rule. If you don’t think a State has to protect his weaker member and care for the population, but to be an autonomous beast so we don’t have the same idea of what is a State.
So, why do you pay taxes? To give good money to Politicians?

[Furunculus]

“Also heard that Greece is expected to leave the Euro after the June 17 elections.” Yeah, heard that as well. The problem is of course nobody explains how. All these experts just forget one little useless thing: There is no provision in the Lisbon Treaty to oblige Greece to do so. That will be fun."

Brenus, whenever has the euro obeyed any rule stood in the way of ever closer union?