Academy of Elemental Magic [Concluded]

[TinCow]

Alright, so here's what we know to be true. ATPG scanned edse, got an Utterly Corrupted result, but edse flipped innocent. That means that either ATPG was lying about the result, or something interfered with the result. If something interfered with the result, odds are very high that someone who knew about the investigation plan was involved in skewing the scan. Otherwise, the odds of successfully predicting who a scan would be performed on on any particular night are very low. I don't think it's realistic that the scum would waste a night action this late in the game just randomly hoping that a scan would occur on a particular target. As ATPG has said, only three people knew about his plan to scan edse before it happened, him, me, and Ironside. I am dead and innocent; that leaves ATPG and Ironside. ATPG is correct that he was ordered to scan edse by Ironside, though he is incorrect that Ironside ordered that he be given the Lenses. That was actually my suggestion, and Ironside simply acquiesced to it.

Before edse's lynch, I said that the second most likely option was that ATPG was scum, with Ironside-as-scum being the least likely option. In hindsight, that was because I thought it unlikely that edse would flip innocent, which was both prejudicing my perception of ATPG's argument and making me put relatively little effort into analysis of that scenario. Since that scenario is now reality, I cannot reach the same conclusion that I did before. ATPG's actions are absolutely insane if he is scum; by that I mean just plain dumb, not the usual ATPG being predictably unpredictable. When ATPG tries to frame someone, he doesn't do a lazy job that instantly points the finger at him as the obvious culprit once the frame-job is revealed, particularly in a game where that reveal is instantaneous. Ironside has done a superb job leading the Air college throughout this game and it is a shame it has to come to this, but I am forced to conclude that he was recruited and intentionally engineered this situation. I recommend that Ironside be attacked by pretty much everyone tonight. Ignore all other targets, just focus on him alone. I also recommend that you use Air to do those attacks, for reasons I cannot discuss.

As a side note, this entire situation also makes me FoS: 'khaan. If one headmaster can be recruited, then so can another. If I was mafia, 'khaan would be recruitment target number one after the failure to kill him several nights before. I suggest that the Earth college perform some scrutiny on 'khaan's QT statements throughout the game, and see if you notice a shift in his behavior at any point.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alright, so here's what we know to be true. ATPG scanned edse, got an Utterly Corrupted result, but edse flipped innocent. That means that either ATPG was lying about the result, or something interfered with the result. If something interfered with the result, odds are very high that someone who knew about the investigation plan was involved in skewing the scan. Otherwise, the odds of successfully predicting who a scan would be performed on on any particular night are very low. I don't think it's realistic that the scum would waste a night action this late in the game just randomly hoping that a scan would occur on a particular target. As ATPG has said, only three people knew about his plan to scan edse before it happened, him, me, and Ironside. I am dead and innocent; that leaves ATPG and Ironside. ATPG is correct that he was ordered to scan edse by Ironside, though he is incorrect that Ironside ordered that he be given the Lenses. That was actually my suggestion, and Ironside simply acquiesced to it.

Before edse's lynch, I said that the second most likely option was that ATPG was scum, with Ironside-as-scum being the least likely option. In hindsight, that was because I thought it unlikely that edse would flip innocent, which was both prejudicing my perception of ATPG's argument and making me put relatively little effort into analysis of that scenario. Since that scenario is now reality, I cannot reach the same conclusion that I did before. ATPG's actions are absolutely insane if he is scum; by that I mean just plain dumb, not the usual ATPG being predictably unpredictable. When ATPG tries to frame someone, he doesn't do a lazy job that instantly points the finger at him as the obvious culprit once the frame-job is revealed, particularly in a game where that reveal is instantaneous. Ironside has done a superb job leading the Air college throughout this game and it is a shame it has to come to this, but I am forced to conclude that he was recruited and intentionally engineered this situation. I recommend that Ironside be attacked by pretty much everyone tonight. Ignore all other targets, just focus on him alone. I also recommend that you use Air to do those attacks, for reasons I cannot discuss.

As a side note, this entire situation also makes me FoS: 'khaan. If one headmaster can be recruited, then so can another. If I was mafia, 'khaan would be recruitment target number one after the failure to kill him several nights before. I suggest that the Earth college perform some scrutiny on 'khaan's QT statements throughout the game, and see if you notice a shift in his behavior at any point.

This post makes me feel a swell of warm feelings. QFT

Thank you, sincerely. You put some real consideration into this, and tried to read my actions from what you know of me. That's really all I ask of people. I'm not unreadable.

You have chosen.... wisely!

[Ironside]

I recommend that Ironside be attacked by pretty much everyone tonight. Ignore all other targets, just focus on him alone. I also recommend that you use Air to do those attacks, for reasons I cannot discuss.

Don't bother, I'm not controlling the guild item and won't protect myself either. I hoped to prove it by observing the lack of corruption in an attack and actually doing something useful. Still plans to. That's why I'm still waiting on an answer 'Khaan.

I think our attack on Autolycus proves lack of corruption. It's 5+4+2+1= 12 unmigated damage done. I'm not sure of how it stacks, but ATPG:s corruption of 2 (how did you get that second point btw?) should be the highest value. I think only the highest value counts.

I'll order grand nuke. Neither me nor ATPG shall survive tomorrow. 3 dead, my guild crippled, but at least this buissness will be over in 1 round. Congratulations, mr scan disrupter.

Earth, take out ATPG.
Water take out me.
You can swap if you want. But earth has more firepower I think.
Elite Ferret attack ATPG.
Alsark attack me.

ATPG has claimed to attack me, so I'll be needing less damage to be taken out.
My stats:
XP 3 HP 12/12 CS 1 Fire 1, 3 Earth 0, 3 Water 1, 2 Air 5, 2

ATPG:s by claim in thread:
XP: 5 HP: 11/13 CS: 2
Fire: 1, 2; Earth: 0, 2; Water: 0, 2; Air: 2, 2.
hp should be 12 and air 4 now I think, based on regeneration and recommended xp spending.

If a scum faction recruits me tonight for the lols, I'll be petty, very, very petty. For a very, very long time. Enjoy.

[El Barto]

Am wondering what my mason partner is smoking in the afterlife.

You don't see how single-minded and uncritical such thinking is?

Detective results are supposed to help us deduce where the scums are- they aren't guaranteed. You still require a central nervous system to determine for yourself whether or not you believe the detective.

I don't believe the detective and I'm the detective.

If this is a plot to destroy both Edse and my credibility, then it stands to reason: the architects of this plot also joined in on accusing Edse, and are also advocating severe consequences for his mislynch.

Wand of suspicion: Those people.

You have a wand?

Just tie the vote…

This. Do this next time.

Why does that bother you, scared he'll reveal something about you and your mason buddy?

My 'mason buddy' ain't no scum. If he were he'd've corrupted me, he knows how much I love it.

I request to be scanned once more. We have so far only lynched members of the cult, when we try to find the members of the second scum team (that probably can't recruit), starting innocents will be worth a lot. I believe there are only three of us left.

This will be my last post for today, when I wake up tomorrow I want you to have answered the following questions: When was I recruited? How did I gain the highest score possible? What evil things have I done as cult? Why have I lynched my fellow cultists? Why have I continued to promote people in my college?

I myself will try to find the answer to "how can they trust a scan result that is obviously wrong?"

Unfortunately, it is too late for this. Now, my headmaster, you can post here without being bound by your body.

Eh... no. We should lynch you. There's plenty of reason for it to be true. You could have been corrupted in a number of ways that we can't verify, since you so rarely show on nights. You claim the investigation is bad/wrong/fraudulent? What's stopping it from *continuing* to be fraudulent? If someone can throw off investigation results, they'll just hit you again and we'll be dancing this same dance tomorrow.

…

Don't bother, I'm not controlling the guild item and won't protect myself either. I hoped to prove it by observing the lack of corruption in an attack and actually doing something useful. Still plans to. That's why I'm still waiting on an answer 'Khaan.

I think our attack on Autolycus proves lack of corruption. It's 5+4+2+1= 12 unmigated damage done. I'm not sure of how it stacks, but ATPG:s corruption of 2 (how did you get that second point btw?) should be the highest value. I think only the highest value counts.

I'll order grand nuke. Neither me nor ATPG shall survive tomorrow. 3 dead, my guild crippled, but at least this buissness will be over in 1 round. Congratulations, mr scan disrupter.

Earth, take out ATPG.
Water take out me.
You can swap if you want. But earth has more firepower I think.
Elite Ferret attack ATPG.
Alsark attack me.

What is this I don't even.

[NinjaCow64]

Yeah, I'm confused as well. Guys, we should attack Ironside first. This splitting of the attacks will probably just let both of them survive. And that would be the worst outcome.

SO: Don't listen to Pizza, just kill Ironside. It's less of a gamble.

[Askthepizzaguy]

SO: Don't listen to Pizza, just kill Ironside. It's less of a gamble.

Errrr yeah that's what I meant, but I immediately assumed the big bad pizza man would absolutely have to die as well, just to persuade anyone to kill Ironside.

If you guys actually want to be awesome like me, you could just kill the bad guys and leave the good guys alive.

[Ironside]

I can't haste. Original headmasters are too old to remember how to use the wielders abillity appearently. 'Khaan can confirm. And the dead ones can moan about it, if I'm lying.

One nuke each+ vigs are enough for both. ATPG will loose 4-5 hp from EF:s attack, while I'll lose 3-4 from ATPG (his corruption score is higher than mine) and probably 3 from Alsark (if he shows up). Both down below 10 health, so vigable by a 3 man team with 4 AV each.

I'll be formulate exactly why I'll be demanding an apology when this is over ATPG. I've said it before, but not in this condensed form.

Let say I'm into the plan to frame edse and make scans look failable. That's clever true.

Now when edse falls over innocent, what happens next? Innocent ATPG will suspect something, since it's low odds of it being a random framing (and I've already pointed it out earlier aka being aware of the situation) and look how many people knowing about the scan. Behold, by some odd action (since I usually posted all night actions in the main guild topic), I've only posted that in the wielder qt, where only me and ATPG is alive. After edse flips he'll accuse me. By some reason I'll expect that to fail, normal procedure will be done (aka lynch ATPG). When he flips innocent, look who's the next one to accuse. Ironside.

Yes, you have expected me to be that freaking stupid!!

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd like to point out that's two forced mislynches at the endgame.

Hardly stupid, especially since you're not starting scum but a recruit, so I don't see your point in the slightest.

Scum would never lie to force two mislynches in exchange for a recruit! That's just not done in mafia.

[TinCow]

Let say I'm into the plan to frame edse and make scans look failable. That's clever true.

Now when edse falls over innocent, what happens next? Innocent ATPG will suspect something, since it's low odds of it being a random framing (and I've already pointed it out earlier aka being aware of the situation) and look how many people knowing about the scan. Behold, by some odd action (since I usually posted all night actions in the main guild topic), I've only posted that in the wielder qt, where only me and ATPG is alive. After edse flips he'll accuse me. By some reason I'll expect that to fail, normal procedure will be done (aka lynch ATPG). When he flips innocent, look who's the next one to accuse. Ironside.

Yes, you have expected me to be that freaking stupid!!

I don't think that's equivalent. In the ATPG-engineered situation he would have known he would be the prime suspect immediately after the end of the lynch phase. In addition, the way he went about it during the day, first accusing and then defending edse, drew heavy attention to him as possible scum even before the lynch was done with. ATPG actively endangered the very lynch that he would have been trying to promote by the fake-out, which is very poor strategy and does not seems consistent with his style.

For an Ironside-engineered situation, it's far more subtle and has far greater benefits to offset the risk. First off, when the action was planned I was still alive. If I hadn't been killed, there would have been a three-way stand-off between you, me, and ATPG with all of us accusing each other. That would have been a lot of cover, particularly for a starting headmaster who was, up to that point, thought to be guaranteed innocent. Second, the sheer chaos of the situation was bound to have (and has indeed) disrupted the relatively peaceful state the town was in, which is to the mafia's advantage. Third, even if you are scum you're clearly only a recruit and thus not a vital role. At this point in the game it's a worthwhile gamble to risk the life of a recruit to sow this much chaos and eat up a few lynch phases. Indeed, I'd go so far as to say that, far from being a stupid plan, it was a very intelligent and highly strategic plan.

If you are indeed innocent then perhaps we've all been chasing shadows and this is a comedy of errors. Regardless, I call the game as I see it, and right now the most likely scenario seems to me to be a situation engineered by you, rather than by ATPG or by pure luck.

[NinjaCow64]

Oh and thanks for killing the water head, you guys are great. I'd give you some of my famous Chilli Con Carne but I can't because I'm dead. And the Necromancy department is REALLY stretched right now.