Syria

[Sarmatian]

I'll lay it out:

The coast is ruled by Assad, more or less.

The north-east is ruled by Kurds, absolutely.

The rest is firmly in rebel hands.

Support Assad publicly on the condition that he agrees to the partition on the map - as noted it already exists in practice.

Partition goes through and everyone gets what they want except Assad himself (but he's in no position to raise a fuss) and the more moderate rebels in the center.

The Turks, Iraqis, and Iranians get nervous about the Kurds but you know what, might as well give the Kurds a bone here. The Kurds are fairly secular, and could well be our friends if were to give them this political boost. Who cares if Iraq and Iran get pissed about the Kurds anyway? As for Turkey, they ought to come around once they leave their Islamist phase.

On the coast, Assad gets to stop the killing and continue his dictatorship peacefully, just as the majority of his Alawites and other minorities prefer. Plus, a coast-only Syria would be significantly weaker and so would never really trouble anyone again. Additionally, he owes us one for turning down the heat and perhaps even lending some support against the more tenacious rebels of the west. Let the tourists flow in once more.

Middle Syria becomes some kind of fundamentalist haven and terrorist training ground, but not before a meta civil war between moderates and jihadis. Let them fight it out, but support the moderates where possible. Put forth the possibility of Assad one day regaining Greater Syria (minus Kurdish Syria) if he invests his military and security apparatus into keeping down the Islamic Wasteland of whatever (once the kooks win). Drones come in to keep a good eye on things. Hopefully, after a few years of brutal suppression by neighbors and painful subjugation to extremists the regular folk will once more get the guts to rise up, and subsequently kick them out. Between Assad, the Kurds, and Jordan, the surviving 'terrorists' flee into Iraq which has anyway been taken over by fundamentalists (outside the cities). At that point, we're still looking at a decent outcome (aside from all the civilian deaths and war crimes/human rights abuses, but, you know...)

How's that for realism? Of course, it won't happen because it goes against the principles of the UN and all that, but I bet this solution would be pretty kickass if given a chance.



Assad simply does not have the strength to take back the rest of Syria ATM, and I really don't think he would want to take on both the rebels and the Kurds full-on. At this rate, a few more years and there will just be a ceasefire agreement recognizing the final divisions and boom - Syria is effectively split in three, just as I laid out. In my version above, of course, the West gets more leverage and can finetune the situation to a greater extent.

Fantastic ideas!

But it won't work, naturally.

[rvg]

Middle Syria becomes some kind of fundamentalist haven and terrorist training ground, but not before a meta civil war between moderates and jihadis. Let them fight it out, but support the moderates where possible. Put forth the possibility of Assad one day regaining Greater Syria (minus Kurdish Syria) if he invests his military and security apparatus into keeping down the Islamic Wasteland of whatever (once the kooks win). Drones come in to keep a good eye on things. Hopefully, after a few years of brutal suppression by neighbors and painful subjugation to extremists the regular folk will once more get the guts to rise up, and subsequently kick them out. Between Assad, the Kurds, and Jordan, the surviving 'terrorists' flee into Iraq which has anyway been taken over by fundamentalists (outside the cities). At that point, we're still looking at a decent outcome (aside from all the civilian deaths and war crimes/human rights abuses, but, you know...)

How's that for realism? Of course, it won't happen because it goes against the principles of the UN and all that, but I bet this solution would be pretty kickass if given a chance.

This is the solution? How is it different from the problem?

[Fragony]

parroting present participle of par·rot

Verb
Repeat mechanically: "parroting back information".

Eat your heart out

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/eat_one's_heart_out

Rebels don't get it's meaning, they actually do it

[Papewaio]

Don't support anyone unless they come out swinging for secular democracy.

Install your own strongman is so 20th century.
Supporting inter-tribal warfare is so 19th century.

Intervene against war crimes if you want. But I'd wait till there is a 'winner' and than clamp down on them.

Odds on any real intervention still run at 0.5%

[Montmorency]

Jockeying for advantage is alive and well, however.

If all you want is to prevent human-rights abuses, just convince the UN's member-states to imbue the UN with massive new rights, powers, and obligations.

[Fragony]

Can't argue with that

[PanzerJaeger]

Where is Lemur with his blame Obama .gif? Declaring our support for the rebels was quite possibly his worst foreign policy decision as of yet, a completely unprompted blunder that is only being compounded by his lack of willingness to follow through on it. I cannot imagine why he would choose to come out so publicly and subject the US to such a difficult and unnecessary test of our national prestige versus China/Russia. This is a chosen battle, not one thrust on us, and our chosen team is being led and manned primarily by the same Muslim fundamentalists we've spent billions fighting for over a decade. And we haven't even begun to fully understand how this decision will play out in the greater Sunni-Shia conflict. Where once we had an enemy in Sunni Islamists, now we have invited and justified Shia retaliation by essentially choosing sides in a conflict that has been ongoing far longer than the US has been in existence among a group of peoples with a very long memory and a propensity to hold centuries-old grudges. It boggles the mind.

I'm torn on Syria. Assad, a stable, secular, and largely benevolent authoritarian, is clearly the preferable choice in this conflict. And yet, now that we've thrown our lot in with al-Nusra, they had better win the damned thing. The only thing worse than throwing our lot in with the Sunni Islamists is throwing our lot in and then losing, and yet Obama seems unable or unwilling to follow through on his promises of support. Every city, town, and neighborhood Assad's forces retake is a new and enduring display of US weakness in the region and on the world stage.

[Papewaio]

Or it is cunning plan to make the rebels over extend and be easily finished.

Yeah, that's it.

[HopAlongBunny]

Lets you and him fight.

[Sarmatian]

Where is Lemur with his blame Obama .gif? Declaring our support for the rebels was quite possibly his worst foreign policy decision as of yet, a completely unprompted blunder that is only being compounded by his lack of willingness to follow through on it. I cannot imagine why he would choose to come out so publicly and subject the US to such a difficult and unnecessary test of our national prestige versus China/Russia. This is a chosen battle, not one thrust on us, and our chosen team is being led and manned primarily by the same Muslim fundamentalists we've spent billions fighting for over a decade. And we haven't even begun to fully understand how this decision will play out in the greater Sunni-Shia conflict. Where once we had an enemy in Sunni Islamists, now we have invited and justified Shia retaliation by essentially choosing sides in a conflict that has been ongoing far longer than the US has been in existence among a group of peoples with a very long memory and a propensity to hold centuries-old grudges. It boggles the mind.

I'm torn on Syria. Assad, a stable, secular, and largely benevolent authoritarian, is clearly the preferable choice in this conflict. And yet, now that we've thrown our lot in with al-Nusra, they had better win the damned thing. The only thing worse than throwing our lot in with the Sunni Islamists is throwing our lot in and then losing, and yet Obama seems unable or unwilling to follow through on his promises of support. Every city, town, and neighborhood Assad's forces retake is a new and enduring display of US weakness in the region and on the world stage.

I think calling Assad benevolent is pushing it quite a bit, and he obviously isn't stable. He is secular, though, that I agree with, and that is a priority of mine when assessing Middle Eastern politicians.

Why did US support the rebels is a good question. Rebels aren't really better than him in any was. They also won't be able set up a stable government, they're far from benevolent and they aren't secular, so they're the worse option in my book.

The only reason I can think of is that Assad is a "Russian man", but that's Cold War reasoning that shouldn't have that much effect on US foreign policy now.

[PanzerJaeger]

I think calling Assad benevolent is pushing it quite a bit, and he obviously isn't stable. He is secular, though, that I agree with, and that is a priority of mine when assessing Middle Eastern politicians.

Why did US support the rebels is a good question. Rebels aren't really better than him in any was. They also won't be able set up a stable government, they're far from benevolent and they aren't secular, so they're the worse option in my book.

The only reason I can think of is that Assad is a "Russian man", but that's Cold War reasoning that should have that much effect on US foreign policy now.

I was referring to pre-rebellion Syria. This is the Middle East and Arabs we're talking about, so there is going to be a bit of torture and repression, but in Assad's Syria, this was largely limited to declared political opponents. Pre-rebellion, a Syrian could choose an apolitical path and largely avoid government harassment while maintaining a decent quality of live. As opposed to, say, Hussein's Iraq, where non-favored religious or ethnic groups were routinely abused en masse, Syria wasn't all that repressive under Assad II, which is surprising considering the issues his father had to deal with and may have been his downfall.

As for stability, again, pre-rebellion, you couldn't ask for a more stable and predictable player in the region. He was, after all, 'our man in Damascus' in regard to the Israeli situation.

[Lemur]

Where is Lemur with his blame Obama .gif?

Sorry, didn't seem appropriate. You can source them yourself here.

now that we've thrown our lot in with al-Nusra

I wasn't under the impression we were rallying 'round al-Nusra. Can't find a mainstream source that backs up that assertion, either—maybe your Google-fu is stronger.

Personally, I think we're best staying way the hell out of Syria. But it's interesting that a chorus of interventionist Dems and interventionist Repubs want us to, you know, go play in that sandbox one more time.

[Empire*Of*Media]

Why in World Media dont give much attention about Kurds Revolution In Syria?!

as you may know, now that YPG close to PKK killed the Top Al-Qaeda leader in Syria because those muslim terrorists wanted to Abuse The Kurds soil and even abuse to Women & Children, so the whole Islamic fundamentalists and Al-Qaeda of Iraq & Syri, by the the military & money aids of fascist government of Turkey (because of fearing Kurdish Autonomy refion of Syria and its Influence in Kurdistan of Turkey), instead of fighting against bloodthirsty Assad, they are fighting with the peaceful Kurds that have no harm for anyone!!

now Kurds In Syria are facing 7 tough enemies!! Jebhat-ul-Nasra (al-qaeda) - so called Free Army of Syria - Bashar Assad's Army - Turkey - Syria - Islamic Republic of Iran - Iraq!!!!!!

now Turkey & Islamic Regime of Iran are trying to provoke and cheting and deceit the muslim Kurds to join Al-Qaeda to Fight against their own brothers & Sisters In Kurdistan of Syria!!

but thanks to YPG and PKK, all attacks & Abuses the muslim terrorists did to Kurds of Syria was repulsed even when those terrorists were aided by Turkey!!

bus sadly, 202 kids & children were kidnapped & god knows what they have done to them, as those islamists FATWAed that they said Abusing & Ra ping to Kurdish Women is Halal and Allowed!!!!!! (too much surprising when those they say are halal to kill & ra pe are muslims!!)


while im not Jurnalist or correspondent, and many web sources are blocked by the internet police (cyber Army) and i cant link u,
But it is strange and total surprising for me how not even a little news is not said to the world about the damned & woeful situations of Kurds in Syria, that have nowhere to go, nothing to placed, nothing to eat, and facing 7 great enemy!! really why ?!!!

it reminds me of MANY MANY revolts & protests that Kurds in Turkey did, but nothing broadcasts them, while they broadcasts little revolts racists kamalists lovers protests against Normalization!!!!!

[Kralizec]

Assad, a stable, secular, and largely benevolent authoritarian, is clearly the preferable choice in this conflict.

Indeed. The man is a veritable Napoleon. An enlightened despot, a philosopher king, etc etc....

Joking aside; I agree with you but only because I don't think that military intervention by NATO/the west will help ensure a stable, benign regime. The only way that route had even a remote chance of succeeding was by supporting the FSA (the only secular rebels with any importance) in the early stages, before all the gulf states started sending fighters and money in favour of the fundamentalists. Even then there could very well have been a civil war against the new government, there are legions of examples for that kind of scenario.

And as you've said, giving verbal support to one side and then just waiting on the sidelines to see which ends up victorious is the dumbest option possible.

[rvg]

And as you've said, giving verbal support to one side and then just waiting on the sidelines to see which ends up victorious is the dumbest option possible.

Verbal support was appropriate for the time frame when it was first given (i.e. the very beginning of the war); Obambo should have just refrained from proclaiming and red lines/lines in the sand and stuff like that, not only because Russia and/or China would block any sort of U.N. intervention, but also because Obama himself doesn't want to intervene: it's too costly, the situation is too unstable, the goals are too vague, and the whole thing is a veritable clusterfuck. Who the heck would want to get involved in that? Well, in that case, let's keep our mouths shut about any red lines or points of no return. It makes us look bad.

[Fragony]

Nasty stuff, big chemical attack. Really gruessome, what is that for stuff. Must be the most horrible thing I ever saw

[spankythehippo]

Nasty stuff, big chemical attack. Really gruessome, what is that for stuff. Must be the most horrible thing I ever saw

The thing that disgusts me the most is the debate on whether it was a "chemical" attack. Countless (well, 1300) men, women and children have been killed and you're worried on the weapon of choice. Planet Earth, go **** yourself.

[Fragony]

The thing that disgusts me the most is the debate on whether it was a "chemical" attack. Countless (well, 1300) men, women and children have been killed and you're worried on the weapon of choice. Planet Earth, go **** yourself.

I take it you don't mean me personally. If they know what kinda stuff did this it can be traced back, and hopefully it can be found out who did this, the rebels that are who knows who and what, or Assad

[spankythehippo]

I take it you don't mean me personally. If they know what kinda stuff did this it can be traced back, and hopefully it can be found out who did this, the rebels that are who knows who and what, or Assad

I didn't mean you personally. You were the first one to bring up this atrocity, so I was responding to it.

It's things like these that make me want to live in the jungle, away from the rest of the world.

[Fisherking]

My guess is that this is some sort of false flag so one side can point at the other and say “Look what these monsters did, help us now!” when it was them who did it, you know, for political advantage.

[Fragony]

http://rt.com/news/syria-chemical-at...operation-841/

Interesting

[Papewaio]

Playing the devils advocate... shelling a city one would eventually hit something containing chemicals... imagine hitting a pool chemical warehouse.

[Fragony]

Also Devil's advocate, how come the ones dragging the casualties are just fine, and why would Assad do this when the VN just happens to be taking a look. Two questions I want to have answered.

[Fragony]

Looks like the US and Russia are playing chess again

[Fragony]

Did I fall for Pallywood-type propaganda? We, well I, am used to video's of dead Palestinian children miraculously resurrecting, are we seeing the same here? Experts on chemical warfare are asking some legitimate questions for sure. I got a question of my own, where are the female victims I only see men.

[PanzerJaeger]

The news of this attack is coming from the same media/governmental collusion that brought us such classics as WMDs in Iraq and impending genocide in Libya. Using chemical weapons makes absolutely no sense considering Assad's favorable current position. Regardless, the pretext has been established, and no one is challenging it.

[Fragony]

The news of this attack is coming from the same media/governmental collusion that brought us such classics as WMDs in Iraq and impending genocide in Libya. Using chemical weapons makes absolutely no sense considering Assad's favorable current position. Regardless, the pretext has been established, and no one is challenging it.

Yeah it would be outright stupid to do this just right now. When the VN are just arriving. It stinks

[Fisherking]

I still say it is a set up. Kerry should show his proof, if he has it.

Meantime. http://www.wnd.com/2013/08/video-sho...tack-in-syria/

WND and the LA Times, huh.

[Fragony]

It just doesn't make any sense Assad did this. He has everything to lose, rebels everything to win. I don't get it why the west wants an islamist Syria because that's what we are getting. We would also be activily supporting the genocide of ethnic minorities. The rebels aren't even denying they are out for christian and alawite muslim blood

[Fisherking]

Assuming that it was the Syrian Government flies in the face of reason. They had nothing to win and everything to lose by the use of chemical weapons.

It has been the military and intelligence networks that have kept the politicians in check up to this point but it only seems to have slowed them a bit.

This is insane. It can lead to a wider war. Russia will not sit on its hands.

Yahoo news said in Apr there would be a false flag chemical attack in Syria this summer. Opposition media have reported this twice before, must have got their signals crossed.

It is clearly a set up.