Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

And now it takes just one bullet on their way to Crimea and the shit hits the fan.

[Sarmatian]

Even if the division of Ukraine would mean long term stability, you can't really expect Ukrainians to agree to that.

The problem with multinational peacekeeping force is that it will hardly be neutral. Who's gonna be in it? Americans, French, Russians, Brits, Germans? Not neutral by a long shot.

Maybe we could invite Chinese and Indian troops, in a delicious spiff of irony.

[Husar]

Germans are incredibly neutral because half of Germany is heated with Russian gas in the winter.
I knew buying Russian gas would have advantages eventually...

[Kagemusha]

Even if the division of Ukraine would mean long term stability, you can't really expect Ukrainians to agree to that.

The problem with multinational peacekeeping force is that it will hardly be neutral. Who's gonna be in it? Americans, French, Russians, Brits, Germans? Not neutral by a long shot.

Maybe we could invite Chinese and Indian troops, in a delicious spiff of irony.

Im afraid that Ukraine has just to accept the facts. International politics do not compute right or wrong but necessity. About peacekeepers, yes Asians, Africans, mixed with neutral Europeans like for example Finns, Swedish and Austrians and like you mentioned, this would be perfect chance for China to take the Global spotlight in positive way, while India could join in as it has very good relations with Russia.

This still can be avoided. It does not look good, but the chips have not yet fallen.

[Fisherking]

Well, it seems to be looking more like a world war all the time.

[Husar]

Apparently Russia just wants the Ukrainians to establish the government that was agreed on in the talks around Feb. 21st.
Meanwhile the government apparently consists of different people who seized power through the revolution while the west distracts from the issue with alarmist propaganda about supposedly russian aggression...

There are simply some pro-russian areas as we established earlier and since they're not happy with the new anti-russian government, they took to the streets themselves. I don't see how that is Russia's fault or constitutes an invasion because someone thinks the people on some photograph "look a little too professional". The cold war mentality is still alive in the west...

Whether Russia actually has a right to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine is debatable though given their numbers and why they are there in the first place. It's not too different from the USA planting US Marines in allied countries to act upon "attacks on US soldiers" however.

Oh and this picture is awesome because it looks like they're getting ready to enter "the zone": http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/...-videowebl.jpg

[gaelic cowboy]

Ah here come on now Russia has troops on the ground seizing Crimea already.

[Kagemusha]

Apparently Russia just wants the Ukrainians to establish the government that was agreed on in the talks around Feb. 21st.
Meanwhile the government apparently consists of different people who seized power through the revolution while the west distracts from the issue with alarmist propaganda about supposedly russian aggression...

There are simply some pro-russian areas as we established earlier and since they're not happy with the new anti-russian government, they took to the streets themselves. I don't see how that is Russia's fault or constitutes an invasion because someone thinks the people on some photograph "look a little too professional". The cold war mentality is still alive in the west...

Whether Russia actually has a right to protect Russian citizens in Ukraine is debatable though given their numbers and why they are there in the first place. It's not too different from the USA planting US Marines in allied countries to act upon "attacks on US soldiers" however.

Oh and this picture is awesome because it looks like they're getting ready to enter "the zone": http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/...-videowebl.jpg

Hus, if you are referring to the troops operating yesterday at Crimea without insignia. Anyone with eye for such can recognize they were Russian regulars. No paramilitary forces are so well equipped and acting so calmly.

[Kagemusha]

Ukraine has just moments a go closed her airspace.

[HoreTore]

It moves the sides apart and reduces tension.

A neutral force to protect those Russian and Ukrainian peoples and not be a threat of annexing territory.

It should protect the stated interests of all parties without having them place people in harms way.

Peacekeepers do not work that way, sadly.

First of all, peacekeepers have only appeared post-conflict. Sending "peacekeepers" into an on-going one is a recipe for disaster.

[gaelic cowboy]

reports are coming out that local Ukrainian comanders and there troops are refusing to surrendar there arms and bases in Crimea.

This is the most delicate phase now as there apparently big scuffles outside Feodosia marine base.

[Husar]

Hus, if you are referring to the troops operating yesterday at Crimea without insignia. Anyone with eye for such can recognize they were Russian regulars. No paramilitary forces are so well equipped and acting so calmly.

Their uniforms look a lot like those of the Ukrainian military in the picture I linked above. IIRC the local government of the Crimean peninsula was very much against the government takeover and may have asked for Russian help to secede. Since it is the democratically elected government of the Crimeans and Ukraine cannot beat them in a civil war if they get Russian help, the new government of Ukraine will just have to accept the secession.

Also love this comment:

Can't speak for the Russians but personally as an American I would love to leave Old Europe to your own fate. The problem though is your Politics are so screwed up you keep dragging the US back in.
I feel the need to remind you Communism and Socialism are the gifts to the world born in Europe. Capitalism and Democracy improved in the US are our gifts to the World.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...f-Ukraine.html

[Kagemusha]

Peacekeepers do not work that way, sadly.

When deployed successfully it is exactly how they work. Get your mind off from Yugoslavia and take a look at Suez, Lebanon or Darfur just to mention few deployments.

[Kagemusha]

Their uniforms look a lot like those of the Ukrainian military in the picture I linked above. IIRC the local government of the Crimean peninsula was very much against the government takeover and may have asked for Russian help to secede. Since it is the democratically elected government of the Crimeans and Ukraine cannot beat them in a civil war if they get Russian help, the new government of Ukraine will just have to accept the secession.

Dont look at their camouflage, but their coms, weapons and carrying systems. Here you have a pic from the guys at Crimea:



Compare to your pic of the Ukrainians from today. These guys have ballistic vests, composite helmets, radios and carrying AK-74 with tactical sights, compared of the AK 47´s of Ukrainians.

[SwordsMaster]

People shouldn't think about dividing countries without thinking of the consequences. Look what happened with Korea and Vietnam. Although there are different ethnicities in the case with Ukraine, the demographics are mixed geographically. Even in eastern Ukraine where there are large numbers of Russian-speaking people, there are significant numbers of Ukrainian-speakers in that region with the exception of Crimea. Ukraine doesn't want to lose territory and would want to protect Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine.
Germany is an exception. Germany lost WWII and was in no position to start a civil war expecially when having superpower armies stationed there. After decades of peace, the Germans decided to continue with that peace.

Also, where would you draw the boundary? Having a third party decide the boundaries have proven to be disastrous in Korea, Vietnam, in African nations and in the Middle East.

True. Boundaries are tricky. However, repopulations are nothing new. The Russians for one are very good at them. The Turks and Greeks did a land exchange after WWI with hundreds of thousands moving from one country to another. There are ways.

In terms of non-violent solutions - Russia could switch off the gas. But Ukraine could switch off the power and water from Crimea, and leave the russian black sea fleet with no electricity. I reckon a 2 hour power outage across the whole of Crimea would calm things down significantly, to be honest. There ain't no revolution without twitter these days.

[Husar]

Dont look at their camouflage, but their coms, weapons and carrying systems. Here you have a pic from the guys at Crimea:



Compare to your pic of the Ukrainians from today. These guys have ballistic vests, composite helmets, radios and carrying AK-74 with tactical sights, compared of the AK 47´s of Ukrainians.

The helmets of the Ukrainians look just the same, the vests are very thin and how you can make out the exact nature of their weapons is a mystery to me. They look like AK family guns and the magazines are a little different but such things often vary even within units.

[Kagemusha]

The helmets of the Ukrainians look just the same, the vests are very thin and how you can make out the exact nature of their weapons is a mystery to me. They look like AK family guns and the magazines are a little different but such things often vary even within units.

I leave it to you to decide if you think i know or not what i am talking about.

[Husar]

I leave it to you to decide if you think i know or not what i am talking about.

You have been in the army, I have never seen a gun from inside, that's not even a contest.
Just consider me amazed by your abilities.

[Catiline]

Other details not with standing both lots are in Russian camo anyway aren't they?

[Sarmatian]

We should sent the photos to McCain to analyze. He's great when it comes to looking people in the eyes and seeing their motives and affiliations.

[Kagemusha]

Other details not with standing both lots are in Russian camo anyway aren't they?

Yes. Both armies have similar camo variants and once the Ukrainian reservist are equipped we will be seeing lot of good ole Soviet looking guys in the pics, with older camo type and quite likely green metal helmets. I bet identification can be very problematic for both sides on several occasions.

[HopAlongBunny]

Peacekeepers could be an option.
It would be nice to see them used as a war prevention tool.
The difficulty is convincing both side more is to be gained from sitting/talking/negotiating than from armed conflict.
While the stakes/benefits might seem clear from an external viewpoint is the Ukraine really going to enter an agreement which effectively cuts it into pieces? Would Russia forgo its trump card of force?

[ICantSpellDawg]

Putin knows that the US and EU are governed by feckless and cowardly administrations. If you were an early 20th century Russian dictator living in the modern age, wouldn't you invade sovereign nations when you could do it with impunity? It's no wonder that China is attempting to define itself as the hegemon in the S China Sea. Once it is able to do so, the US will shrink at every provocation and roll over. The US government has become good only at targeting it's own citizens and has lost it's grip on the world. Let's see how much better off the world becomes for it. Wait, didn't we spend countless years and treasure to target one guy in central Asia? Brilliant foreign policy when sovereign nations are being invaded.

The US should begin encouraging or threatening to encourage secession within Tartaristan, Dagestan, and Chechnya. Remove some organizations from the terror list. I believe that we should push for independence everywhere, especially where it compromises the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and China.

[Brenus]

"If you were an early 20th century Russian dictator living in the modern age, wouldn't you invade sovereign nations when you could do it with impunity?" Do you mean like in Kosovo, Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya? Of course, you will have to change Russian dictator by Modern and Alive Democracies, and add in agreement with UN decisions...

[Montmorency]

Energy is not a Russian trump card.

If Russia ever cuts the oil in a conflict or near-conflict situation, they will lose it as a source of revenue permanently, unless they agree to whatever disadvantageous terms the East-Asian states are willing to offer.

Don't forget that Europe is sitting on a huge bed of natural gas. They will exploit it if forced to.

[Fisherking]

The US should begin encouraging or threatening to encourage secession within Tartaristan, Dagestan, and Chechnya. Remove some organizations from the terror list. I believe that we should push for independence everywhere, especially where it compromises the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation and China.

You know, I thing the West, and the rest of the world, should be looking for solutions that defuse the situation. Preferably while maintaining Ukrainian territorial integrity.

Not getting into further difficulties. Forcing anyone into a corner or launching propaganda campaigns to make them look like beasts is not going to do that.

Russia may be overly aggressive in the actions they took. Taking a cold but firm stance that offers them an out without losing face. Russia was guarding its interests while using an excuse that has worked before.

Heated rhetoric is not going to make them back down and further drawing lines or taking a polarized view is not going to get the reaction you are looking for, that is unless it is more tension leading to larger confrontation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Peacekeepers do not work that way, sadly.

First of all, peacekeepers have only appeared post-conflict. Sending "peacekeepers" into an on-going one is a recipe for disaster.

They could work that way though - it requires a binding UN resolution, though, and Russia has a veto.

Putin is testing to see how far he can go before NATO reacts, especially America. As the Head of NATO the US should be taking the lad here, but comment has been strongest so far from Kerry, not Obama.

This is unlikely to result in WWIII - it could become a shooting war over Ukraine, but that would likely be a larger version of the Falklands war, essential an arm-wristle between NATO and Russia until one side concedes. Long Term - comment by the American here suggest America will revert to type and leave Europe to burn, until it realises it really SHOULD do something, thus triggering WWIII.

As far as I'm concerned, worst case scenario is WWIII, and whether that happens depends on whether the US is willing to face down Russia or not - if it is not Putin may conclude he can overpower Europe and start shooting.

[Beskar]

Looking at this news article, things are really hotting up.

Russia is getting threatened to be kicked out of G8.

The UK has joined the US, France and Canada in suspending preparations for the Sochi summit.

Nato is conducting emergency talks, saying Russia's actions threaten "peace and security in Europe".

US President Barack Obama called Russian troop deployments a "violation of Ukrainian sovereignty".

"[President Putin] has just seen his man, in effect, [Viktor] Yanukovych, overthrown by what he sees as a Western instigated revolt. He [Putin] is determined to maintain Russian influence in Ukraine as a whole, and he has now taken Crimea... hostage"

"You just don't in the 21st Century behave in 19th Century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext," Mr Kerry told the CBS program Face the Nation

"He may find himself with asset freezes, on Russian business. American business may pull back, there may be a further tumble of the rouble."

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Unconfirmed reports of Russian soldiers along with militia assaulting the Regional Border Control HQ

That's it.

[Kagemusha]

Unconfirmed reports of Russian soldiers along with militia assaulting the Regional Border Control HQ

That's it.

Source?