Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Pannonian]

It could be a mix of both.

Putin might actually know the truth, so whilst the pro-Kiev forces ordered the sniper attacks, he knew it was them, allowed them to seize control, then he could use this information against them, which makes it easier to put his man back upon the throne.

There are many opportunities for both side, but once you walk down certain roads, you are shooting yourself in the foot, over and over.

I am wondering a bit more about the government in Crimea. There were big shakeups there too. 77 members of the ruling party left and became independent. The leader of the government, from what I glean was replaced by a Russian Business Tycoon (note I did not say Russian-Ukrainian) a few days before the intervention. They announced they would boycott national elections and now they decide they are joining Russia.

Ukraine calls the government of Crimea illegitimate and the Russians call the Ukrainian government illegitimate. Maybe they both are.

It all seems a bit to pat. As Crimea is autonomous what shakeup forced the government to go haywire?

Now, today the parliament of Crimea is supposed to be unanimous in their decision to join Russia.

They seemed to be hopelessly divided a short time age, but suddenly they are unanimous.

Isn’t that sweet?

Like I said, the protesters opened the door when they toppled the previous democratically elected government. However corrupt it was, they demonstrated that the old rules didn't apply any more, when elections produced a government, that lasted until the next elections. With the old rules gone, whoever is strong enough to back their version of legitimacy is free to do just that. Both the Crimean and Ukrainian governments have their own degree of democratic legitimacy, and neither respects the old version of legitimacy in full.

[Fisherking]

I will say this again here, in hopes that someone has a clearer answer than I can find.


I am wondering a bit more about the government in Crimea. There were big shakeups there too. 77 members of the ruling party left and became independent. The leader of the government, from what I glean was replaced by a Russian Business Tycoon (note I did not say Russian-Ukrainian) a few days before the intervention. They announced they would boycott national elections and now they decide they are joining Russia.

Ukraine calls the government of Crimea illegitimate and the Russians call the Ukrainian government illegitimate. Of course they recognize Crimea as the peoples representatives.

It all seems a bit too pat. As Crimea is autonomous what shakeup forced the government to go haywire?

The ruling party has a name that would tend to make you believe that they support Ukrainian unity.

It is the Party of Regions, which just merged with the Strong Ukraine Party.

Now, today the parliament of Crimea is supposed to be unanimous in their decision to join Russia.

They seemed to be hopelessly divided a short time age, but suddenly they are unanimous.

Isn’t that sweet?

I am not saying I got this right either. It is a bit complicated to follow it with news reports. Most in languages I don’t read or by Russian sources only.

Who has a clue?

Also the referendum is scheduled for March 16th!

Would anyone believer the results? Should they?

This smacks of soooooooooooo much Hog Wash!

[rvg]

Now, today the parliament of Crimea is supposed to be unanimous in their decision to join Russia.

Maybe they are held at gunpoint.

[Fisherking]

Like I said, the protesters opened the door when they toppled the previous democratically elected government. However corrupt it was, they demonstrated that the old rules didn't apply any more, when elections produced a government, that lasted until the next elections. With the old rules gone, whoever is strong enough to back their version of legitimacy is free to do just that. Both the Crimean and Ukrainian governments have their own degree of democratic legitimacy, and neither respects the old version of legitimacy in full.

Well, that is not exactly how it went down!

The Parliament asked the guy to step down.

The demonstrators seemed fairly happy with early elections.

There is a lot going on but governments can remove heads of state without being illegitimate.

It is not the protesters running the country, or have you not noticed?

[Ironside]

It could be a mix of both.

Putin might actually know the truth, so whilst the pro-Kiev forces ordered the sniper attacks, he knew it was them, allowed them to seize control, then he could use this information against them, which makes it easier to put his man back upon the throne.

There are many opportunities for both side, but once you walk down certain roads, you are shooting yourself in the foot, over and over.

He is certainly willing to burn a lot of goodwill and long term economics over this (I expect independence from Russian gas to be a strategic issue from now).

It's suprisingly little it changes the current narrative.

Yanukovich are burned. Too corrupt.
Putin always called it a facist coup. Bit more valid if it was facist rented snipers, but ignores the revolutionary part of it.
Doesn't change the invasion of Crimea. It's a different game field. Same field counter play would implicate a major chunk of the new parliment (even if it only was a small part even aware of it) with the sniping.

What it changes is the need to get an independent investigation to root out that kind of corruption.

[Fisherking]

BBC: Armed men in Crimea seize TV transmitters, disconnecting Ukraine's 5 Kanal TV and One Plus One TV, and launch Russian Rossiya 24 TV broadcasts

Guess they were not saying what the masters wanted them to.

[Beskar]

Interesting solution would be if the UN had a mandate where it could de-facto run a country during an election cycle. By this, the UN basically safeguards a nation whilst an election takes place with UN observers to check the validity of the voting and assist in appointing a new government.

Crimea does seem a lost cause, and their application to Russian Federation is a wild card. To my knowledge, the Russians haven't agreed to anything, but they could say 'no' then support an 'independent' Crimea still.

[Fisherking]

I am pretty sure the demonstrators received aid in one form or another from western governments.

Who did the sniper work for? No idea.

Russia in Crimea? Phony as a $3 bill.

What happened in Georgia? Same thing.

[TiagoJRToledo]

Maybe they are held at gunpoint.

Or maybe they just really want to join Russia.

[rvg]

Or maybe they just really want to join Russia.

It's possible. I'm skeptical though, considering that normally vehemently anti-Russian Crimean Tatars suddenly became pro-Russian.

[Husar]

Not really. Georgia shot at Russians who then retaliated.

What happened to Pakistan? I hear there is some rogue country firing missiles as Pakistani citizens all the time.
There was even an event where soldiers of that rogue country entered Pakistan and shot people there, just entering already constitutes an invasion as we established before. So if this rogue country starts to criticize Russia, I am reminded of the great picture story Tiaexz posted. (Crimea river)

[Beskar]

It's possible. I'm skeptical though, considering that normally vehemently anti-Russian Crimean Tatars suddenly became pro-Russian.

They only make up roughly 10% of the population, so if they are going for the 51% rule and 60% of the population are classified as 'Russians' by Ukraine census, they do not really have much chance if the 'Russian' population are unanimous in their support.

[rvg]

They only make up roughly 20% of the population, so if they are going for the 51% rule and 60% of the population are classified as 'Russians' by Ukraine census, they do not really have much chance if the 'Russian' population are unanimous in their support.

There are also Ukrainians. Besides, even ethnic Russians are unlikely to be united in their desire to join Russia. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess, provided that voter fraud does not become an issue.

[Brenus]

And when I told everybody that the Putin will play Kosovo story, I didn’t think to be right THAT fast…

[rvg]

Not really. Georgia shot at Russians who then retaliated.

What happened to Pakistan? I hear there is some rogue country firing missiles as Pakistani citizens all the time.
There was even an event where soldiers of that rogue country entered Pakistan and shot people there, just entering already constitutes an invasion as we established before. So if this rogue country starts to criticize Russia, I am reminded of the great picture story Tiaexz posted. (Crimea river)

If what he's doing is a'okay with you, then there's nothing to worry about. After all, we don't share a land border with Russia. EU does.

[Fisherking]

There are also Ukrainians. Besides, even ethnic Russians are unlikely to be united in their desire to join Russia. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess, provided that voter fraud does not become an issue.

LOL I am sure they could have given you the vote count yesterday.

[rvg]

LOL I am sure they could have given you the vote count yesterday.

I share your skepticism.

[Brenus]

“Neville Chamberlain can breathe a sigh of relief: the aggressor has been pacified, at least for the moment.” If you want to understand Munich, I suggest looking at the state of the French and UK armies and theirs air-forces in 1938. That is if you want to really understand, out of Clichés, that, like today in front of Russia, theses 2 countries were not able to fight Germany. Reseach for Amiot 143, ANF Les Mureaux or Bloch MB 210 for the French. At the same time, Me 109, 110, Ju 88, He 111 and others for Germany…

[Fisherking]

Not really. Georgia shot at Russians who then retaliated.

What happened to Pakistan? I hear there is some rogue country firing missiles as Pakistani citizens all the time.
There was even an event where soldiers of that rogue country entered Pakistan and shot people there, just entering already constitutes an invasion as we established before. So if this rogue country starts to criticize Russia, I am reminded of the great picture story Tiaexz posted. (Crimea river)

Yep, Georgia fell for the bate.

Sure. That is why two wrongs make it right.

Revenge, tit for tat, and so on. All those enlightened diplomatic ideas.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I may be wrong, but I believe his point to be that Russian AA will be adequate enough to suppress your planes. Which, if true, should dispel your notion of using the planes to suppress the AA.

AA has historically been shown to be more of a nuisance than anything - interceptors do the killing, AA is the distraction that gets you killed.

The US B-1 and B-2 Bombers have mission profiles for taking out AA.

Ultimately - though - we don't know how to fight a major war - the closest thing was the Falklands, where AA was largely ineffective, and the infantry were assaulting trenches with bayonets.

It seems most likely that our fancy stuff will be cancelled out by their fancy stuff and it'll come down to scared young men with pointy sticks, like it always does.

[Husar]

Yep, Georgia fell for the bate.

Sure. That is why two wrongs make it right.

Revenge, tit for tat, and so on. All those enlightened diplomatic ideas.

I didn't say two wrongs make a right, I said Matthew 7:5.

Russia finally does what America does all the time, might makes right and all that, and now America is trying to say that's immoral.

Crimea river.

[Beskar]

the Ukrainian Hitler-fanboys aren't getting their fourth reich yet.

Yes, the possibility of not joining the Russian Federation would be a blow to them.

[Beskar]

And when I told everybody that the Putin will play Kosovo story, I didn’t think to be right THAT fast…

That is exactly what I thought when I heard about the referendum, Kosovo.

There are also Ukrainians. Besides, even ethnic Russians are unlikely to be united in their desire to join Russia. We'll just have to wait and see, I guess, provided that voter fraud does not become an issue.

My point still stands:
58.32% Russians
24.32% Ukrainians
12.10% Crimean Tatars

They just need a majority of 'Russians' to back the vote to win, even though there might be some Ukrainians who might want to join too.

[Fisherking]

I didn't say two wrongs make a right, I said Matthew 7:5.

Russia finally does what America does all the time, might makes right and all that, and now America is trying to say that's immoral.

Crimea river.

And who give a about what politicians say. It is usually a lie. So because the US is wrong in things it dose it make it ok for Russia to grab chunks of Ukraine with a phony pretext.

I thought it was about Ukraine. Sorry!

Anyway when a bully stands up to a bully beating up someone weaker, which one is right? Not that they are actually doing anything.

The US likes to play cop. They may be a sleazy self-serving cop but one in a while they have the opportunity to try and do what is just.

Meantime, you root for the gangster.

[rvg]

Ukraine can always decide that she doesn't like the gas pipeline going through her territory... It spoils the landscape.

[Beskar]

Ukraine can always decide that she doesn't like the gas pipeline going through her territory... It spoils the landscape.

Doesn't really matter, the Baltic German-Russo pipeline has been under construction and even operated for a while. There are plenty of other nations who are willing to take oil money for their coffers.

Not taking any money would hurt the Ukrainian economy even more during this period. In short, Ukraine would lose more than the Russians.

[Fisherking]

Ukraine can always decide that she doesn't like the gas pipeline going through her territory... It spoils the landscape.

The Russians would just protect their economic interests in that case and take the whole thing. And of course they would get a unanimous vote of the people to back it up.

[rvg]

Doesn't really matter, the Baltic German-Russo pipeline has been under construction and even operated for a while. There are plenty of other nations who are willing to take oil money for their coffers.

New pipelines don't spring up overnight though. Pretty much all of Southern Europe gets its its gas via the Ukrainian pipeline. Oh, and one more thing: water. Currently Crimean agriculture functions solely because of the water coming from Ukraine via a canal. This can also be subject to change.

[Beskar]

Meantime, you root for the gangster.

I heard the same thing about US sponsored Kosovo. Then the fact the US propped up Saddam and all those other tyrants and dictators across the world from South America to Africa, to Middle East and Asia.

The problem is that the US look like big hypocrites and that is a realist position, they are also in a position similar to Russia in the past where they can not act.

Crimea like Kosovo for the Serbs/Russians cannot be won.

[Sarmatian]

The US likes to play cop. They may be a sleazy self-serving cop but one in a while they have the opportunity to try and do what is just.

Meantime, you root for the gangster.

Really, how do you justify this kind of opinion? I understand that a country A has strategic interests to ally country B, that their level of trust is high, they may share some other similarities, have a history of cooperation and so on and so forth, but if a country A acts like country C, how can you label one a "cop" and the other a "gangster"?

What's the rationale behind it?